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Will China Label USA A Currency Manipulator?
Whether it's Chuck Schumer or another headline-hungry banker/politician/long-only-equity-strategist, the one note of constancy among global macro perspectives has been - China needs to re-value the Yuan. The "it's not fair" crowd or "everything will be fixed if we can just compete on equal terms" talking-heads may want to take a look at the BIS effective exchange rates. It is evidently clear that since 2005 the USA has been on a path of very considerable currency devaluation - down almost 16% while the Yuan has strengthened almost 38% based on the BIS effective exchange rates. The effective exchange rate (EER) provides a better indicator of the macroeconomic effects of exchange rates than any single bilateral rate and are described here. After this morning's comments from China, perhaps it is time for our Asian trade partners (or should we say vendor financiers) to raise the rhetoric that the US is the one not playing fair?
An effective exchange rate (EER) provides a better indicator of the macroeconomic effects of exchange rates than any single bilateral rate. A nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) is an index of some weighted average of bilateral exchange rates. A real effective exchange rate (REER) is the NEER adjusted by some measure of relative prices or costs; changes in the REER thus take into account both nominal exchange rate developments and the inflation differential vis-à-vis trading partners. In both policy and market analysis, EERs serve various purposes: as a measure of international competitiveness, as components of monetary/financial conditions indices, as a gauge of the transmission of external shocks, as an intermediate target for monetary policy or as an operational target. Therefore, accurate measures of EERs are essential for both policymakers and market participants. For a complete explanation on the methodology, please refer here.
Chart: Bloomberg
(h/t Sean Corrigan)
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Heatin' up.
I.E. GOLD Manipulator ...
Somebody, somewhere, has to have a currency that everyone can devalue against. You, sir, bring up Au. Interesting choice... you mean Yoda doesn't want a Yen with purchasing power?
If governments would let the price of gold rise, then all currencies would be devalued, which is exactly what they're trying to do, anyhow. (LOL that is sick twisted, Knukles)
Fucking mindboggling.
"the USA has been on a path of very considerable currency devaluation - down almost 16% while the Yuan has strengthened almost 38%"
look, I pee on those shit-producing, earth raping, tibet invading, dissent crushing, totalitarian, pricks from a great height....but fair is fair-
People who live in Ponzi houses should not throw stones.
And this entire time, China has been PEGGED to it.
The dollar is down 16%? Against WHAT?
China's inflation numbers are all bullshit, everything they release is a lie. So fuck them and their imaginary "real" FX ratio.
The yuan hasn't strengthened anywhere NEAR 38%. Compare it to oil, gold, anything.
trav7777 - "The yuan hasn't strengthened anywhere NEAR 38%. Compare it to oil, gold, anything."
Tungsten?
I love how you always ignore evidence when it doesn't agree with your worldview.
The USDX is down, and the Yuan is up against the dollar. I don't know how this could be any clearer, unless you are merely professing your total ignorance at how FX markets work, in which case, you need to spend some time online reading about these things before shoving your ignorance in everyone's face in that oh-so-hostile little way of yours.
You can't fake FX numbers. Sure, their inflation numbers, and every other number they put out might be fake, but THEY DON'T PUT OUT FX NUMBERS.
I had some time to kill yesterday so I made you a theme song complete with video.
Trav's Theme
The Chinese are still currency manipulators. Why else would their currency be pegged?
Yes, they've let it increase a little bit, but it won't be fair valued until it increases by about half.
The only ones that have let their currencies increase are in Europe.
http://thehardrightedge.com/
For some, the upcoming dollar extinction event will be completely unexpected. For others, the coming days may be seen as the unraveling of the greatest silent oppression story humanity has ever had the displeasure of calling reality. Mislead by the deceitful words from generations of countless "professional politicians", the lives of all Americans will be forever changed over the next two years, no person to be excluded.
We now live in a society where lies are presented as truth, military imperialism is justified in the name of humanitarianism, and more debt continues to be issued to "promote" economic health and stability. The long-run is not in focus, and short-term perspective is constantly subject to manipulation.
The staples of life, such as the food we eat, the water we drink, the education we receive, and the medical practices developed have all fallen victim to the hands of profiteer-ism, lacking respect for the well-being of the population, better known as crony capitalism.
America's children have been taught to memorize, repeat, and to be entertained. We have been told that we are nothing without a college degree, in which many are forced to take out student loans in which opens the precedent to a life of debt. What sort of precedent is this setting our future up for? (Approaching one trillion dollars... larger than all credit card debt).
Our media has been hijacked, as responsible journalism has all but vanished from the mainstream arena. Many complain about specific networks or mediums, when in truth it matters not which different "race"of news one mentions, for they are all fed by the two dominant mainstream news sources, Reuters and Associated Press.
Our economy has been morphed from a goods producing private sector, into a government subsidized welfare state. The basis for what is left of the American economy depends on consuming cheap goods, many in which come from China and other openly oppressed nations. Regardless of this known fact, the American Public and the U.S. government adopt the "out of sight, out of mind" philosophy with respect to ethics and morality of the exploited labor. If this was truly the land of the free, why do we play benefactor to the exploitation of labor trade?
So it is no wonder why in these times, so many are confused, angry, and even frightened about what the future holds. For those who are opening up to the world, they are greeted by the many harsh unspoken realities in which this world is founded upon. And for those who remain unaware, the life they have known seems to be changing at an increasing rate. Both types of people are left asking why?
The answer is quite straightforward, yet elegantly complicated in its delicacies. To understand why all these illusions are converging upon the next several years, one must look at the common denominator among these large and complex lies, or the heart of the beast one may say, currency (money).
Many Americans have little knowledge about the history and role of currency within the United States, a byproduct of our poor education system and falsely presented history.
Even if one has learned about the history of banking and currency in the public education system, depending upon the perspective it was taught from, the education may very well have instilled falsities as truth, creating democracy''s biggest foe, a mis-informed public.
The phrase history repeats itself is often said, making it highly appropriate to compare opposition to America's first two private central banks, to the times we currently live within.
In 1791, the first national bank of the United States was passed into law, much to the suspicion of the southern states. In the mandates of its creation, this bank was to be a privately owned business, and not a government agency.
In 1811, when the bank's charter was up for renewal, it was rejected by the House of Representatives, for there were just enough congressman who saw through the bank's corruption, for the legislation was rejected by one vote for a tally of 46-45 in favor non-renewal.
In 1812, a war broke out between England and the United States. While there are many repeated stories of why this war started, it may prove more fascinating to examine the consequences of this costly war the United States of America suddenly found itself within.
Could it be that the War of 1812 was nothing more than a tactical move by the English banking elite to push for the creation of the second national bank in which they could control/influence, after the first vanished to history by the democratic process?
Regardless of the causes, America was essentially forced to adopt the creation of the second private national bank.
The second National Bank of the United States was to meet the same fate as of the first. America had elected a southern president who didn't take kindly to the private national bank, for President Andrew Jackson had a bone to pick. In 1836, President Andrew Jackson with the American Public behind him wrote in closing the second national bank: (Source Here)
Upon understanding a basic history of America's historical battle with central banking, a new context of the Federal Reserve is able to be observed.
Since the unconstitutional creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 (America's third private central bank), the timeless warning from Thomas Jefferson has echoed loudly throughout the last 100 years of monetary policy.
Below is a chart of the DOW Index divided by the price of gold. In a step by step methodology, I will follow the inflationary/deflationary cycle that has enabled and amplified the role of central planning since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913. This information warrants strong evidence that Federal Reserve and its policymakers/supporters are responsible for the homelessness that is being forced upon the American Public, by a small group of private bankers and special interests. The perpetrators are likely the very same influences in which supported the first two American national banks. The solution to this problem is found within Jefferson's analysis, as the issuance of currency must be returned to the people, and stripped from the private banking interests who are enabled from the power entrusted upon them.
Thomas Jefferson's warning the coming generations of the hidden dangers that faced America: (Source Here)
How the Federal Reserved Robbed the American Public, Per Jefferson's Warning: (Inflation Statistics Here)
Central Bank Established:
December 23rd, 1913. While many congressman were at home with their families for the holidays.
First by inflation:
January 1914-September 1929, Government Reported Inflation: +74%
Then by deflation:
October 1929-December 1939, Government Reported Inflation: -19.08%
Then by new policy:
1933: US Government makes US Dollar no longer redeemable for gold bullion by American citizens, effectively removing the population off of the gold standard.
Then by Inflation again:
January 1940-August 1971, Government Reported Inflation: +193.53%
Then by more new policy: (Federal Reserve note adopts full issuing power of nation's currency)
August 1971: The Bretton Woods Agreement; Termination of the gold standard and the creation of the dollar as the world reserve currency, backed only by the trust that the Federal Government would be able to repay its accumulated debt (Wikipedia Source Here)
And since, much more inflation:
September 1971-July 2011 Government Reported Inflation: +453.73%
And the grand finale, unfolding in front of our very eyes:
American history is young, fragile, and experimental. Yet we as a people have become complacent, docile, and void of the ability to critically think. In order to truly "win" the future, we must understand how we got here as a nation, and the lessons of the past must be understood in context of today. History only repeats itself because participants are unaware of their predecessors, which is far from the case today. Through understanding past mistakes, we are able to make proper decisions for the future.
While these circumstances may not be our individual fault, it is our responsibility as free individuals to consider facts and opinions of those who say otherwise, for it is always from the minority does the new majority become. There is no better current-day example of this than Ron Paul, the current guardian of the founding father's vision, and the philosophy of liberty in which sparked my own intellectual journey.
Below is a confrontation between Ron Paul and Ben Bernanke (Private FED Chairman).
One is telling the truth, while one is lying. You decide.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Dj9v9s9buk
It is important to understand that throughout human history, civilizations haven risen and fallen, and the citizens who lived at the endpoints of a major civilization were much the same as you and I. Citizens of the Roman Empire probably could not imagine what was to come, as many innocent people were just a product of their times.
The same does not have to be for us, but in order for change, we must change ourselves before it is to late. If we unite together in the cause of liberty, there is a chance for something special to happen in this world. However, if we continue to divide ourselves and see each other as our own enemies, then we will surely meet the fate that all empires have followed.
If we as a country are willing to rise up and help ourselves, then the first step in a long journey finds ourselves repeating history once again.... for all that is needed to begin restoring the damage by a few is another "one-vote win" to change the course of history.
I will be here journeying alongside you in this quest for freedom, for your future is inherently tied to mine.
Humbly and Respectfully,
Scott J
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Support: H.R. 1098, the "Free Competition in Currency Act of 2011."
Stop pointing out the truth in history, you are scaring the sheep. If they stampede, then you will ruin that meat and the pelts.
You too still have a lot to learn.
Ron Paul gets a whopping 90 seconds of a 90 minute 'CBS' Presidential Debate?
Democracy works?
Excellent condensed chronology of the "CB" and the raw truism of unsavory usury - thankyou Scottj88
PS. i'd like to add this tiny tidbit {not to take-away your thunder but to solidify :-)) }
Ref: "The Creature from Jekyll Island"
http://www.bigeye.com/griffin.htm
Serious Question for ZH'ers my buddy and I have been talking about:
Is China part of the NWO? I think you can make a pretty strong case either way...
I've pondered this for a long time. I think the answer is no, but the NWO might be trying to bring them in, but is nervous about it. I have little doubt the chinese leadership knows the score, and will happily pretend to play along, knowing they'll defect when required. And unlike the other developed countries, the NWO doesn't have the leadship development pipeline installed in China, so China is very difficult to co-opt, especially in anything less than a generation.
I think the strongest argument against is that the NWO is incredibly racist, so they only time they bring someone from the outside in is out of sheer necessity. So again, China is outside, but out of necessity might be needed to play along, so the opening overtures are there. I have to imagine this is given someone in the upper echelons of NWO leadership heartburn at night, because they simply don't have their normal set of covert tools available to deal with the issue.
Don't forget that some of the most critical, deep policy positions China has are directly opposed to NWO positiions. Today's case in point: supporting gold as a currency and investment at both the state and individual level. They did this to soak up dollars to prevent inflation internally, but in a NWO-occupied country, this would never be accomplished through a hard asset as a savings vehicle, but rather some diversionary investment or flat-out money-burning stupidity.
I think if you look at what China has been doing over the last few years, it's clear that they are looking out for their own best interests. I don't see any evidence of collusion in a grand plan, but many of their actions are in line with the NWO drum beats.
Robot Traders Mom... I believe if you look up 'Shanghai Cooperation Organization' you will get an entirely different view of China and it's intentions. Type 'Shanghai Cooperation Organization' into your google window and 2,180,000 hits come up. Do you think it a bit odd that the SCO never comes up in MSM discussion and rarely even on ZH?
The SCO is a powerful economic alliance and cooperates in joint military exercises, trade agreements, exchange of soverign currencies in trade sans dollars, etc...
Knowing about the SCO might give you and your friend more fodder for discussion.
The "New" World Order is now old, and dying. The NWO is the central banker controlled West, and merely added "World" to their title (perhaps rather than "West") after the collapse of the Soviet Union, when there was no other major opposing power to stop them from spreading their influence around the world. China has become that power. They are likely corrupt in the same way, but with competing corruptors--ie not Goldman Sachs and Co. Maybe they can defeat the corruptors in China, or join them, but it is not clear that that has happened yet. It seems to me that the West is sinking too fast, and China will merely stand by and let it happen.
Went to a Brookings Institute talk a couple of years back by John L Thornton http://www.brookings.edu/china.aspx (John L. Thornton China Center).
China is very much a big player in the NWO the way he presented it. The fabian socialist types love the government is business and business is government model of control. It sounded like they wanted China to assume a subserviant role in the gang though and China does not seem to want to comply.
You have to figure they are part of the NWO given the fact the US went balls out and sponsored their WTO membership. The West is misjudging badly where China wants to be in the NWO foodchain.
I think they are NWO but the West is playing musical chairs with the power struggle and all the chairs are made in China.
Well spotted! As a top dog at Goldman Sachs, John L. Thornton knew what he was talking about.
Communist China was founded upon NWO support of Mao Tse-Tung. It has also been an experimental laboratory for many NWO population control tactics which we are yet to see manifested in the West (cultural revolution, population control, military suppression of popular uprisings à la Tien-An-Men, censorship, etc).
The ruling elite of China are very well-connected to the NWO and the transfers of technology and manufacturing to China, beginning under Nixon at the direction of Kissinger, were in no way an "accident" or "mistake" ... they were planned.
Just because China doesn't go stomping around the planet blowing things up doesn't mean that they are an irrelevance.
You guys all have great points, exactly what I was looking for. Yes, the SCO is a very interesting alliance.
I guess my belief is that the NWO is not dying, in fact, about to tighten the death grips even more. I don't think China's growth and our debt would have been fueled had they not decided to 'play the game.' I believe there is a lot of military posturing, but it is all a diversion.
Of course The Bernak is manipulating the USD value and interest rates. The Bernak has outright admitted to such things. Trillions in currency swaps, QE, etc ensure the ability to manipulate the USDIDX.
Isn't this called exporting US inflation
PS: Just one of many proof of USDIDX manipulation via currency swaps:
Alan Grayson: "Which Foreigners Got the Fed's $500,000,000,000?" Bernanke: "I Don't Know."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0NYBTkE1yQ&feature=results_video&playnext=1&list=PLD066726EC059FE1B
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What the [Federal Reserve] audit revealed was incredible: between December 2007 and June 2010, the Federal Reserve had secretly bailed out many of the world’s banks, corporations, and governments by giving them US$16,000,000,000,000 – that’s 16 TRILLION dollars.
The GDP of the United States is $14.12 trillion...
http://www.stockhouse.com/community-news/2011/jul/27/bernanke-s-us$16-trillion-giveaway
Doesn't really change the fact that Chinese exports have been artificially cheap for over 15 years and that this has drawn Industry and jobs East creating severe capital imbalances.
And what about Intellectual property rights and state sponsored Industrial espionage ?
What would one expect when we've exported our industrial capability to China? I always knew that would blow up on us. Rather than get in verbal pissing matches with China, we need to take the bull by the balls and make the US the most attractive place to invest your business dollars, specifically by drastically flattening or (dare I say) eliminating the corporate income tax. Then, once that takes hold, we can shoot China the one finger salute and deny their ability to export to the US, if domestic production hasn't done that for us already. You can only win the game by being better at it....not by pissing and moaning or looking for scapegoats.
I found this interesting... From Japan Daily... "Honda may ship US made autos to Korea"
Toyota is already shipping US made autos to Korea.
http://www.japantoday.com/category/business/view/honda-may-ship-u-s-made-cars-to-korea
Perhaps the 'labor playing field' is being leveled faster than any anticipated?
Or, how about if we re-regulate trade and tariffs? Fair trade, not free trade....(dare I say it) protectionism. It's the reason I have a fence around my yard and why I close my garage door. It's why I lock the doors when I go to bed.
Our economy has been gutted and our finances raped and plundered at the alter of free trade. Ross Perot may have had a shrill, high-pitched voice, but he was 100% correct about "that giant sucking sound" he referred to when discussing how our jobs would be eliminated by these dumb-assed trade agreements we have been busy signing for the past 30 years.
In the imortal words of Forest Gump......Stupid is as stupid does. We are STILL allowing factories & jobs to be packed up and shipped away, while we watch the unemplowment rate climb, along with the increasing numbers of households taking some form of government assistance.
This is still THE premiere marketplace for the world's consumer products....even more so with Europe in the crapper. We need to provide some good, stiff DIS-INCENTIVES for companies that elect to move production off shore. And, while we are at it, we need to 'motivate' companies who are stashing cash in foreign countries to bring it home. Everybody seems to want the benefits of living here and taking advantage of what the previous generations built, but no one wants to pay for it. In fact, just the opposite has been occuring. Our country is being strip mined by multi-national predators...and it's way past time we called a halt to it.
"Whether it's Chuck Schumer or another headline-hungry banker/politician/long-only-equity-strategist, the one note of constancy among global macro perspectives has been - China needs to re-value the Yuan."
how bout first we re-value the schmuck schumer to junk-pol status? we can proceed from there.
I'm just waiting for the Schumer to Hit The Fan
How a person can junk that, is beyond me WB7.
Some people think that showing the Chinaman holding his chicken is derogatory, racist, an affront to Asian/American relationships and in bad taste.
That chicken has webbed feet. I've seen similar hanging in China town restaurant windows.
Kung Pao chicken
Looks to me like he's "chokin' his chicken". (har, har)
Me thinks it's an lame duck ...
Yep ... Peking's Duck!
You're a quack-up, WB7. This is one of your very best.
That is a duck.
"Duck" in Chinese is a euphemism for a male prostitute.
PS: "Chickens" are women.
Somehow I think Barry, Timmy, the Bernak are all China's new style power bottoms.
It is a duck. But chicken sounds better. but you are right about the connotations about chickens and ducks. Either way, Hus got him b the neck ;-)
Pontificating out hypocrisy to China is not going to do anything in the way of remedying our structural and economic problems. It is just another form of political misdirection.
Good one WB7. +1 ... chicken, duck or sparrow the message comes across.
some people can't take a fuking hint!
That's just myopic of them little Worthy Oriental Gentlemen. We're Humericuns and we'd never ever do anything like manipulate the dollar, price of gold, governemntal stastics like inflation or unemployment. We'd never ever try to control the media, spy on our own, treat different people differently under the law. We'd never interfere in free markets, try to influence businesses or act in a behind the scenes unfair manner. We'd never ever meaninglessly harm another peoples, invade a country or incite and forment instablilty abroad unless it was to bring freedom and emocracy to the oppressed. We'd never ever support a foreign government that did not believe in freedom for all it's assorted peoples.
Wogs. Bloody wogs accusing the U.S. as in us of being unfuckingfair.
They should be blown off the face of the earth, lying filthy unproductive motherfuckers.
yeah.
does that make us the kettle or the pot?
I dunno. I can't seem to figure out which of the kettle, pot or chicken that's black.
junked you , too much truth for a Monday.
I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for the truth today.
China is waaaay too dependant on food from Amerika do do anything but play along real nice.
They are even more dependant on USDs without with China would not be where it is. CHINAs Oh Sh*T moment. The instant it realizes some common known things.
1. When I owe Best Buy $500.00, IVE got a problem. When the USA owes CHINA 3 TRILLION, lol, THEY have a problem.
2. At any point America can decide to take what is rightfully OURS, China has been infringing on patents and inventions from the US for ever. We could wipe out our Chinese debt, and 'take' about 10 TRIL iin ill gotten USD gains from China with the stroke of the Presidents pen, and an accounting entry at the Federal Reserve. ALL it takes is will to eliminate 50% of ALL US debt with good reason.
3. We could always 'reset', China is forced to trade with us. Period. They will accept whatever dollar we send them.
Get it China, your only smart option is to buy gold, trade all that paper for hard currency. Are you listening?
@bill1102Inf.....Well, I'll be damned. I had already hit the reply button when I saw the mioniker. Another grunt. I should have known. Someone who will automatically assess the reality of the situation, and take whatever action is required to win.
Our economy is about 14 times the size of China and we have about 1/3 the population. Their communist party has a tenuous hold on power, and any disruption that causes the general populance to become unsettled is a huge problem for them. They spend on average near 40% of their meager incomes on food.
They can form whatever Asian pacts they want to...but do you really tink Japan ahd Korea are eager to jump in bed with them? Not to mention that Japan is melting down right before our eyes. No. Both Japan and Korea will do what they have to do to maintain easy access to this market. Same for every other country who has built an economy around the consumers of Europe and America.
Our leaders don't have the will to properly negotiate...or, they have been bought and told to roll over.
are there chem trails in china's skies? NOT!!!!
No problem, the American market has decoupled and its momo tech and retail leading the way again. We'll all get rich spending money we don't have on toys we don't need!
Protectionism is good, free trade is bad for the USA. Pat Buchanan, Ross Perot and myself correctly predicted 20 years ago what would happen to the USA from NAFTA and the free trade doctrine.
When a person or a country consumes more than it produces, it becomes poorer.
Japan rose from the ashes of WWll to become a world economic power in just twenty years based on total protectism.
My general theory is that the Chinese peg has interfered with US currency manipulation efforts and put a floor under the dollar. Those goddamn cockblocking currency manipulating bastards.
SI... I believe your 'general theory' is correct. In addition, the Chinese peg has had a similar effect on the Euro currency. After all, China ships more finished product to Europe than the USofA.
It is not in China's interest to let Ben/Timmy cut dollar purchasing power in half when China is sitting on ~ 3Trillion plus of US paper. Same goes for the Euro currency...although I am not sure how much Euro paper China is holding it is probably a considerable amount.
January 1, 1994. Reverse engineering bastards.
the first salvo of many to follow, leading up to another "Cold War" -
the "NWO' cannot survive on its own, without moralities stirred gently by america's imported, 'goebbels` doctrine' !
jmo
who is that chinese guy holding a duck? a chicken? a turkey?
Love it so much.
Given that many countries peg their currency to the dollar, including China, it no surprise that the US would seem to be manipulating, but the reverse is true... the US Dollar floats freely, most other currencies don't.
Not that I frequent ZH often, but this was the most poorly reasoned piece I have seen here. I may be a bear on the US, but I try to be a fair bear.