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Will Congress Kill The Payroll Tax Extension - Advance Look At Today's 6:30PM Vote
Tonight at 6:30 pm the House is set to vote on the Senate’s payroll tax cut/unemployment insurance bill. As it stands right now, it appears likely that the vote will fail due to lack of support by Boehner and other house leaders. Furthermore, Senate has said it will not present an alterantive bill (as of yet). Which means that with a major portion of Q1 GDP at stake (non-renewal of payroll cuts means up to 1% of GDP being cut in Q1 2012), the futures market will be very focued on newsflow after the close. Here is Goldman's rundown of what to expect tonight in DC.
From Goldman's Alec Phillips
6:30 pm – House votes on Senate payroll tax cut/unemployment extension bill? House Republican leaders’ plans on whether the House will take up the Senate’s two month extension have changed a couple of times over the last two days, so it isn’t certain that this vote will occur but for now the House intends to vote on the Senate’s plan tonight. While we would have thought that left to vote however they pleased, a majority of House members (most Democrats and a few Republicans) would have voted in favor of this bill, House Republican leaders appear to believe the vote will fail, presumably because House Republicans have now unified in opposition to a short-term extension, despite support from the vast majority of Republicans in Saturday’s vote in the Senate. If the House does indeed reject the Senate package, they will either call for a formal House-Senate conference committee to resolve differences between the two bills, or they might simply pass another version of their full-year extension package. In either scenario, the next formal action toward resolution might not come for at least a couple of days.
The payroll tax cut and emergency unemployment benefits expire after December 31. Emergency UI has temporarily lapsed before, with benefits extended retroactively. The payroll tax cut has not expired before (it was enacted for the first time last year) but it would probably take one or two payroll cycles (i.e., a few weeks) to increase tax withholding in any case (as it did to decrease withholding when it was first enacted last year), so even if it were to expire for a couple of weeks isn’t entirely clear when or if paychecks would be affected, particularly if employers and payroll processors expect an extension. Presumably they still should, given that the House opposition to the Senate bill is that the House wants a longer payroll tax cut. That said, there is still the question of how to pay for a full-year extension of these items (along with a few smaller ones); avoiding that thorny issue was, after all, the motivation for passing the two-month extension in the first place.
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Wait a minute...I thought all tax cuts were good?
Not when they try to pay for them on the backs of new homeowners to the tune of $17/mo for 10y on a 200k mortgage. Just what the housing market needs in time of crisis. Who the fuck comes up with this shit??
Strut, everything could make sense if the clowns running the show were not psycopaths.
How do you justify cancelling the extensions (which they will and which probably have kept many small businesses alive and put food on american tables) and send X billion to the UK or the IMF or some such failing "entity".
It's entity vs. people and th eentities are winning. It's easy when you are devoid of conscience. Every day sounds like a clang shut of another heavy steel gate on the once free USSA.
ori
/this-that-and-the-4th-reich/
+1
This smells like a Freddie/Fannie bailout to me.
The house has it right. The senate bill is for 2 months. No business person plans 2 months out. The house wants it for the whole year, better to get it done now then wait.
An aside, I think it's a bad idea anyway. Just means more borrowing.
Wahoo! the Telegraph.co.uk site has referenced Zerohedge for the 2nd time in 2 weeks on their live debt crisis blog (its always the front and center "article" in their finance section)!
Check it out for yourself http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/8965011/Debt-crisis-live.html (to speed up the process just hit Ctrl + F and type in "zero hedge" (two words).
I'd come here for my daily news fix regardless, but I'm having fun pondering zerohedges break into contemporary news sites.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-J0KybVqsOIc/TuzbUekzp0I/AAAAAAAATsQ/OK-eYIpDYm...
ot: anyone catch that Bloomberg radio interview with monkeyclown Tom Brown just a few minutes ago ? He said the "plumbing is fix" with regards to robo signing/foreclosures and he is bullish on BAC.
I googled this fool and the 1st link was him talking back in June about how JPM has a maximum exposure across 6 of the worst Euro countries ie Greece etc of $3 billion dollars lol
Where do they find these retards ?
Tom Brown...Tom Brown...
Let's see...Tom Browne ! Of course ! Where did they find him ? That's easy: Jamaica, Queens.
http://youtu.be/uuUy2ShGLyo
Jamaican me crazy!
ooh yea! Nice touch! Funkin' for bankamerjaica
Man, I remember this one in the clubs back in '81. Analyst Tom Brown couldn't pop, funk or break to save his CFA designation. Word.
+100
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That said, there is still the question of how to pay for a full-year extension of these items (along with a few smaller ones); avoiding that thorny issue was, after all, the motivation for passing the two-month extension in the first place.
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This is the absolutely CRITICAL item in the whole thing.
Fuck the pipeline. It doesn't matter. THIS is what matters. Offsetting spending cuts.
Remember, when this idiocy was passed December of 2010, it was PURELY STIMULATIVE at about 120 billion dollars. That stimulus lasted this year and did nothing particularly good.
If it is now PAID FOR, at the same level of tax cut, it becomes destimulative. It is a fiscal extraction of spending. THAT is what the whores will try to avoid, thereby borrowing more money.
And while we're at it, let's remember that the Debt Ceiling deal was designed to last to February 2013, and that design presumed this monstrosity would expire. If they now extend it WITHOUT PAYING FOR IT, the debt ceiling deadline moves up, maybe pre election.
I'm pretty sure all CBO budgets assumed that the Medicare adjustment would be made. It has been put off so long that it is over 20% (I think something like 27% as in, Medicare is supposed to track with Ministry of Truth inflation which means payments should be reduced by 27% but they won't, reality is just creeping in from every direction). Another thing to consider on how the "official budgets" always assume the Medicare adjustment will be made and will start saving money and how they are always rosier than they end up being.
This is about the Social Security tax, not Medicare. The Doc Fix is an addendum. The real money is in the 2% reduction in Social Security contribution. That's the 100+ billion stimulus from Dec 2010, that is now EXTRACTED when it must be paid for with a spending cut.
Delaying the medicare adjustment was also part of the deal. Edit: Which you just said. Give me a second and I'll catch up. It's early.
"The short-term deal also would include a routine adjustment for doctors who serve Medicare patients, preventing about a 20% cut in payments."
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-congress-payroll-tax-20111216,0,1157845.story
Congress is full of lying, cheating, stealing, self-serving, incompetent morons. It doesn't matter which party you vote for - they will do what ever is in their own self interest every time.
NDAA and SOPA are just the latest examples.
https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/petitions/!/petition/veto-sopa-bill-and-any-other-future-bills-threaten-diminish-free-flow-information/g3W1BscR
TBTF banks need YOUR taxes! Row harder, peasants, ROW!
The fsker-tards can't seem to accomplish anything... they have no motivation to do so.
Here's what they'll do... punt. Nothing will be resolved today and they'll pass an extension and hurry off onto private jets to go home to their mansions for a nice holiday.
Call up the National Guard, lock down the shithole and keep them in there without aides, without their legal teams, without all the extra financial burden their "offices" place upon our tax dollars and let them feed themselves with no reimbursements until they get something done.
If they don't get anything done now they'll continue to kick the can as we approach the heavier portion of the election cycle.
Ben & Barry can print up all the funny money they want. You pay taxes because you are a slave. Now, get back in the fields.
Everything in Guberment is on a 1 or 2 month "fix". Thank you B. Hussein Soetero for your fucked approach to leadership. In other news, Michelle 'My Belle" Soetero went to Hawaii early, costing the taxpayer nearly $4 million. It's important she get there early don't-cha-know? Don't any of you fucktard liberals ever preach about carbon footprints again.
http://vegasxau.blogspot.com
I have some bad news. The only thing that would be different if McCain had won would be the media coverage.
Congress buying Puts on SP as we speak? Would not doubt it.
Our 'representatives' will get their Santa Rally in the form of front running and screwing the public. What a great country.
Its amazing to watch this, day after day they got nothing, yet fake it 1 more time.
Man when the wheels finally fall off this hurtling hoodpie 1 day its gonna be shock and awe.
All this stuff is basically moving money from one pocket to another. It doesn't generate wealth, it doesn't increase productivity, it doesn't spur innovation.
They ask each mortgage to pay 17$ more to pay all this sheet. It looks like a scam to me.
Why should productivity increase...aren't the Chinese rowing fast enough for you?
Why should wealth accumulate? You can't take it with you and your offspring are more likely Paris Hilton than Bill Gates.
What innovation could possibly be spurred that you wouldn't demonize as too expensive and unproven in the face of existing alternatives?
Perhaps $17 isn't so much to ask of people who probably aren't paying their damn mortgage anyway.
Always great to here the oligarchs' point of view. Thanks!
Are you familiar with Sorites paradox? There's an analog to determining where the plebis ends and the oligarchy begins.
And it's spelled 'hear'.
BAC flirting with a 4 handle again. TBTF's waterfalling again. What rabbit will Maestro Ben pull out of his ass this time?
Okay...is it because they want more than two months? More tax cuts for their golfing buddies? Free orange-tan for life?
Never more clear than now that the Republicans are nothing but obstructive slopjockey men who care nothing for fiscal sanity or their country.
I cannot wait to see the "look what we kept them from doing for you" campaign spots next year. That'll really play in the cheap seats!
HEY! IF YOU DON'T LIKE TAXES, JOIN THE UNEMPLOYMENT LINE! AT LEAST THEY GOT A EXTENSION ON THEIR BENEFITS! again....
Payroll tax relief and extension of unemployment benefits to those without jobs is not a GDP, it is a charade.
Corporations will continue cashing the checks in the meantime.
I wish the media and congress would stop characterizing this as a TAX CUT, because it is definitely NOT.
It is a reduction of employee contributions to Social Security, plain and simple, and none of the reduction is coming from the employer share.
It is total Bullshit and the American public, and small business, should reject the entire notion whether it's two months, a year or permanent.
SS is already in the red and this will only make it redder. If they're serious, just stop contributions altogether and wind down the fucking socialist program along with all the others.
A true tax cut - meaning a cut in payroll withholding - would be palatable but it alone would not boost the economy significantly. The only way out of this mess is to do massive, basic reform to entitlements and corresponding cuts in federal spending, which, BTW, is completely out of control.
I'd start with cutting all government pay by 20% - top to bottom - no exclusions. You either work for less or go join the other 15 million unemployed.
A bill should be put up by Rand Paul or somebody with balls to re-index government pay and then throw in a rider that government must make cuts in headcount equal to the unemployment rate. It would never pass, but at least raise the level of discontent over high government pay and the need to get back to limited government once and for all.
Ron Paul is our only chance, albeit not a very good one. Looks like we get the "strongman" answer, a la Mitt Romney, or, four more years of Obummer, so the working class can continue funding a bunch of lazy slobs on welfare, unemployment, disability, etc.
It's totally FUCKED. Next option: Move to Uruguay.
Many peoples are having the idea that doing something is having the purpose of changing the directions. They are not having the realizing that when a people is in a boat that is going to be having a falling because of a large water falling, that not changing direction because of the something they are doing is a betterment from having still the direction they were having that was taking them over the water that is falling.
So it is possible that even if the payroll taxes cutting is not having stimulation of the economies to be making things to be getting better, is could stil be having things not to be getting even worse than they were happening before the payroll taxes cutting. Slowing is better than not slowing when we have having not very many distances to where the water is falling from.