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Will The Dreaded "Double Bottom Within A Triangle" Push The S&P Down To Triple Digits?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The VIX is an ephemeral beast beloved by talking-heads and options-market-makers alike (and now FX strategists). In a rather alarming note from CitiFX today, they are concerned over the chance of an explosive breakout as one of their favorite technical setups comes to pass - a double bottom within a triangle. If these levels break then the team expects a test of S&P 1000-1015.

In a note titled "Oh Dear...", CitiFX points out:

The set up on the VIX is now looking increasingly like a double bottom within a triangle. This often results in an explosive breakout.

 

The levels detailed below need to be watched carefully as if they go then there is a danger we get to out 1,000-1,015 target on the S&P a lot faster than we thought.

 

The pattern above is one of our favourites when completed (A double bottom within a triangle.)

 

So far we have not managed a daily close above the neckline which stands at 43.18%.

 

A close above here would complete the double bottom and suggest an impulsive move higher to at least 56%.

 

That is a problem. Not only does that suggest another sharp selloff in the S&P 500 but it creates an even bigger breakout.

 

It has not been our base case scenario that the 48.00-48.2% level will be broken on a weekly close basis on this chart. If, however that does happen then there is a real danger that our 1,000 target on the S&P gets hit much quicker than we think.

 

The pattern on the daily chart above suggests that if we close over 43.18% we will go over 56% which by definition means that a close over 43.18% suggests that the 48.00-48.20% area will give way.

 

A weekly close above here would almost certainly suggest a move to our 1,000-1,015 target on the S&P 500 extremely rapidly. Such a development would also strongly question our present view in today’s’ weekly highlights that further consolidation was likely in the short-term before the next move lower in “risk”.

 

The target on such a break for the VIX would be at least 80%+...we are now officially worried.

 

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Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:18 | 1723255 samseau
samseau's picture

okay

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:22 | 1723280 Smithovsky
Smithovsky's picture

just okay or ooooooookaaaaaaaaay?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:58 | 1723472 Frog-And-Toad
Frog-And-Toad's picture

Can someone please break this down a bit?  I am not really sure why a double v suggests a dramatic drop in the S&P.  Thanks in advance for the help!

 

Also, how would you best play this?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:00 | 1723482 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Best play: fade Robotrader.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:17 | 1723625 Soul Train
Soul Train's picture

heard another rumor, the late upward surge in ES this afternoon was a Hugo Chavez rally.

If his kidney does indeed fail overnight while in hospital, expect a follow through run up to the next support line.

You are now advised.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/venezuela/8796505/Hugo-Chavez-in-hospital-for-kidney-failure.html

Anyway you look at it, it's bullish. Even if his kidneys don't fail, there will be a continued possibility that he might die of cancer later this year or suffer other complications which would seem to indicate a bullish stance for the West and ES in general. Couple that with prospects for QE+++ and Europe resolved and we may just see SPY 1450 by Christmas day.

Another plus is that none of this Chavez concern affects Greek debt or any of the other PIIG issues. More reason to load up on ES and cover any shorts.

Life is good, and all is on the up and up.

Will be watching futures overnight and DAX CAC FTSE opening in the morning.

ps, and disclosure, --- now with GS, previous Citi and JPM trading desks.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 19:02 | 1724122 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I'd be willing to bet the S&P will see 1050 before it sees 1450. I'd stake my amateur reputation on it.

But thanks for your GS heads up. Fading...

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:12 | 1723527 caerus
caerus's picture

the vix is supposed to be an indicator of the implied volatility of ES options, the article argues that from a technical perspective it looks like the vix is going to break to the upside...the article then assumes that given the current market, a vix breakout implies a selloff in the ES...but a high vix isn't necessarily bearish...personally, i wouldn't trade off what the vix is doing

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:14 | 1723543 hambone
hambone's picture

Tom Lee on Bloomberg just reiterated his 1475 S&P year end target...what a crack smoker!!!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:24 | 1723877 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Where was the decimal point?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:22 | 1723580 Frog-And-Toad
Frog-And-Toad's picture

Thank you very much Caerus

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:41 | 1723673 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

vix is showing a bull flag here.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:43 | 1723683 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

The VIX is basically a news cycle indicator. Volatility in the market is driven by the news. It's basically a heart monitor of the markets. I can't see how you would even want to trade off this chart. It's not completely useless. But if you are a day trader I wouldn't even look at it.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 21:01 | 1724453 bluestaq
bluestaq's picture

You seriously don't know what you're talking about.  You can take the VIX and divide by the square root of the number of trading days in a year.  That number, expressed in percentage terms, gives you the next days implied trading range.  If you're a day trader and don't use it you are lacking a useful tool.  It works better when VIX is over 35 and not so well when volatility is low. 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 21:21 | 1724502 bluestaq
bluestaq's picture

For example, today's VIX closed at 38.62.  

38.62/15.87 = 2.43%

Tomorrow's /ES range will be approximately 2.43%, or 28-29 points.  That gives you an idea of what to look for off any pivots high or low. 

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 23:10 | 1724708 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

The markets are so fucking rigged. My bad for not making that more clear.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 22:49 | 1728131 bluestaq
bluestaq's picture

/ES range for 9-30-11....27.25.  That's pretty damn close to what I said last night.  Know the tool.  Use the tool.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:33 | 1723636 JuicedGamma
JuicedGamma's picture

Dooooode it's a DOUBLE UU. Get it?  Awesomeness.

Now go short some Spyders.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:37 | 1723655 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

nice shades, no wonder you're not selling burgers. scary.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:42 | 1723677 JuicedGamma
JuicedGamma's picture

They fired me I think.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:29 | 1723896 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

So, droopy tits then?  

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 20:27 | 1724360 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

@Frog and Toad

Double tops and double bottoms are pretty stong juju, kind of like Gandolf on the bridge telling the Balrog 'You shall not pass' (not the Monty Python knight on the bridge saying 'None shall pass' sort of weak juju). How they predict how far past the peak it will go has always seemed a bit stetched to me but the double bottom has a lot of psychological power for the market. I know when I saw the double bottom form I said 'time to buy some VIX calls' :). Plays you can make are short positions on almost anything S&P friendly or long positions on inverse funds. I like puts on SPY and AAPL, and calls on VIX. This gives gains if VIX continues up and the (assumed) fall in index equities occurs. I included AAPL because I think the stuff spraying off the fan blades will make people start dumping their profitable positions as well as the stocks that have already taken a hit to the chin. If you like to sleep at night you might avoid options and short SPY or buy inverse funds, leveraged or not, FAZ and TZA are pretty liquid. You can buy VXX shares to kinda sorta play the VIX index but I don't like the fund personally. Critiques from those smarter than me are always welcome.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:22 | 1723284 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

You just wanted to be first, admit it OK?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:01 | 1723484 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

I've traded options since 2006. The CBOE is conductor of such volitility indexes. I've had the real time charts up for it and see no value in it. It was more a vehicle to program implied volitility for the thousands of option chains.

When the flash crash happened. The option chains went fucking nuts, right along with it. nickel asks went to a buck. It is not a reliable indicator for us plain folk. 

It is european style options chain, to trade and used for market makers programmed pricing, and oh, don't forget a way to fuck the hedgers to protect themselves, and steal a little more cash.

There is a reason for everything and your protection is not one of them.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:18 | 1723256 Josh Randall
Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:40 | 1723378 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

[Peter Falk voice]You haven't lived until you've done it with a waitress. A big fat blondie waitress. I don't know what them society dames are like in the kit, but you ain't never had it until you made it with a big, fat, blondie waitress. If you're ever interested, give me a call.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:19 | 1723258 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Have no fear.  The Plunge Protection Team will not let it happen.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:35 | 1723353 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Here they come.  Gov capital a blazen.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:11 | 1723530 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Volume dumped off on the spike, funds setting up for end of q?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:51 | 1723436 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

PPT with the stick save at the close!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:19 | 1723259 bxy
bxy's picture

1015????  We might hit that tomorrow.........VXX and metals are the play......and of course short the S&P with two hands.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:56 | 1723459 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

SDS & SH FTW!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:19 | 1723261 clones2
clones2's picture

Yep - just mentioned this exact same thing in your other post below....  Pull up a chart of the VXX as well.  This set a new high today as well....

The charts all seem in PERFECT alignment for some significant volatility. 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:20 | 1723268 caerus
caerus's picture

hold on to your shorts boys and girls...

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:38 | 1723369 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

If Citi is telling me to get short, I'm going balls to the wall long. 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:31 | 1723903 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

This.  

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:20 | 1723270 Lmo Mutton
Lmo Mutton's picture

Double what?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:39 | 1723376 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

The infamous Double Rainbow pattern

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:20 | 1723273 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

geez.  been watching that and now that its "out there", there is no chance it plays out.  F-you Citi!!!!

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 00:25 | 1724819 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

There's still a chance. The purpose of the report IMHO is to screw the hedge funds, those irritating little competitors to Citi and the TBTF. If tomorrow is a big down day plus this report plus the recent chorus of gloomers on the MSM the hedge fund customers will jump ship tomorrow, the last day they can before the end of the year. Why else did they put some no name trader on television to say the world is ending? There's a lot of guys on MSM talking 1000 recently. They're right but why does the cheerleading media put them on. If they can knock off a few percent more hedge fund customers with this post it ends up as less friction for them for the rest of the year. Watch the sell off on Monday when the funds have to liquidate to dispense the funds. Apple will take a hard blow. It already is getting hit harder than it should. Expect even more choreographed media hype about the dire problems ahead. If I'm right Monday will be epic. Who knows?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:22 | 1723282 RobotTrader
Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:23 | 1723283 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Us markets are way over valued compared to the rest of the world. Expect a 15% drop by end of October at least!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:23 | 1723288 laomei
laomei's picture

VIX is funny... isn't it suppossedly tracking volatility? It seems more to track markets crashing.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:32 | 1723334 anony
anony's picture

Considering that the market has been stable to up since march 2009, any change in the VIX is a sign of 'volatility' and it will reflect more 'volatility' if we get those same 700 pt. up and down days once again (before the November 2008-March 2009 lows)

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:24 | 1723292 reader2010
reader2010's picture

IMHO their plan is to let those that are misled into 401K using shitty dollar cost avereging method suffer their financial waterloo first. Then those people will beg to suck Bernanke's three-inch dick in the hope of hisPerpectual QE.  Fuck it.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:24 | 1723294 pantheo
pantheo's picture

see it vice versa. There is not other way to break 1,000 apart from VIX breaking 48. My target is for VIX is 60 and it's coming mid NOV. The rest will be history...

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:38 | 1723371 clones2
clones2's picture

and 1100 break on the S&P will probably get you about 60 on the VIX.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:24 | 1723295 AcidRastaHead
AcidRastaHead's picture

I once dated a girl that I'd also describe as a double bottomed triangle.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:41 | 1723670 dark_matter
dark_matter's picture

Savvy traders call this the dreaded camel toe pattern. Except for Rastani who dreams of camel toes.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:25 | 1723297 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Imagine the huge prices now being paid for puts with the VIX and VXN screaming towards the highs.

"No price is high enough"

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:34 | 1723345 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

Taking a stand here.  Buying the gold and silver miners.  F$$$ everyone!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 22:40 | 1724650 JuicedGamma
JuicedGamma's picture

Sell me some protection Robo, you obviously think vol is overpriced.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:25 | 1723299 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Yo, homies, I put everything I had into Netflix at 300 and Baidu at 160 based on ROBO's recommendations. I feel violated now.

Help me, Obi Wan Bernanke!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:25 | 1723301 jmac2013
jmac2013's picture

Is this better or worse than the dreaded "Hindenburg Omen" which was announced loudly on here last year.  The Hindenburg Omen was a big dud, and I expect this to be the same.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:49 | 1723426 pantheo
pantheo's picture

Ela re thrile pare sovraka!!!!!!!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:26 | 1723302 magpie
magpie's picture

This is a long weekend in Germany (Monday 3rd October "Day of German Unity"). Excellent opportunity for a Greek default - and perhaps other countries would like to join in.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:34 | 1723342 Sambo
Sambo's picture

In 10 days time

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:27 | 1723304 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Feels like this market is close to exploding, and I do not mean higher.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:27 | 1723307 ivars
ivars's picture

Here is comparison chart between my feb 6th chart of DJIA and actual prices. After 8 months with mistakes in the middle, its for last 2 months within 0-5% of actual DJIA:

 

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2860#p34298

 

In original chart, the trend continues to go down with increasing speed.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:19 | 1723561 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

Ivars, whenever I go to your site, the links don't work. Can you post direct link here?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:27 | 1723312 chancee
chancee's picture

Yes, in case you're wondering, the S and P and the ES are being propped up here in the last hour to prevent a bloodbath going into quarter end.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:28 | 1723319 anony
anony's picture

This bears repeating.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:35 | 1723351 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Luckily for you, it was.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:27 | 1723891 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

All bets are off for October, tho'...

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:28 | 1723313 chancee
chancee's picture

Yes, in case you're wondering, the S and P and the ES are being propped up here in the last hour to prevent a bloodbath going into quarter end.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:31 | 1723328 mtremus
mtremus's picture

Currently the P&F Chart on the S&P 500 is in a column of O's which is bearish

The price objective for this move  is 1,010

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:34 | 1723339 mtremus
mtremus's picture

current price objective on the S&P 500 for this move is 1,010

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:34 | 1723341 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

This market has 9 lives.

At least until after the Sept. 30 "Happy Print" is over with

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:34 | 1723348 twotraps
twotraps's picture

a little perspective on technical analysis.....on the wedge or triangle or whatever, in other words, you can make big money fading the moves when prices get to the edge of the trading range, until you can't any more and it keeps going (up or down).  Anyone remember last friday?   Friday, no news, Europe in shambles bla bla bla, mkt at the lows, Absolutely no interest in taking it down.    

 

As far as the 1000 S&P target goes, it could not matter any less but I tend to agree.  A fun game to play with prices flinging around  like this is to take a monthly chart over the past 15 yrs or so....and pretend its a daily, or 30 minute, or 5 minute chart.  What would or could you do here??  From that perspective, 1000 does not look that horrifying, just a re-test of a recent low.    More than this technical call, does anyone else wonder about the NYSE trimming the Limit Down parameters?  Seems like the are either broadcasting what's happening next or at least tempting the move??  1200 DOW pts and that might put us through 1000, locked limit??  Does everything get rinsed out like before with gold - bonds - stocks liquidated??

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:44 | 1723395 clones2
clones2's picture

Last Friday also saw about 7-9% down the previous two days....  Consolidation almost sideways the past 2 months... Really needed to take place before another break to the downside takes place, if it happens...

Expect the unexpected perhaps...  But everything seems to be coming into alignment for a big break to the downside...  We'll see I guess.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:54 | 1723732 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

So basically your saying /es to 1000 lock limit before bears have a chance to cover, then while markets are shut Ben announces QE4 2tril print. Then Market goes lock limit up and when it finally opens all the bears are drowned dead.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 18:08 | 1724005 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

The new SEC limits -- submitted for public comment at this point -- would be based on SPX, not DJIA.

 

http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2011/2011-190.htm

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:35 | 1723350 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Must...close...green....ctl+p

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:38 | 1723373 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

10 Open Green

20 Start rumor

30 Print more money

40 Go Greener

50 If reality sets in, go to 30

60 Close Green

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:13 | 1723539 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

Wow, you code in FED BASIC! Nice.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 00:36 | 1724836 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

You forgot

70 Go To 10

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:37 | 1723365 caerus
caerus's picture

check out PCLN flirting with a triple top...

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:37 | 1723366 bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

So much free or cheap money is sloshing around the world that it might be impossible to drop the markets if in fact they are subject to "market" forces.

Don't worry.  You don't have access to free money.

The rigs are rigged to be rigged.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 00:39 | 1724841 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

I keep wondering though, all the 'safe' places to put that money are under clouds now, where do you put trillions in cash?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:37 | 1723367 Belarus
Belarus's picture

Ah...yes, this orchestrated deflationary phase must come to an end faster than we anticipated so Ben can fire up the Inkjets sooner: before some GOP hopeful clearly takes the lead in the polls and pulls the the rug out from Benny in broad daylight with public lashing after another and jeorpordizes QE III. Must. Make. It. Happen. Now. Who was it that put this piece out, Citi? 40% of book value, Citi?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:43 | 1723394 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Yes, all declines are orchestrated to extort more money.

There hasn't been a market in the usa in many decades.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:37 | 1723368 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

My ass.

Can't happen.

The market is rigged.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:39 | 1723374 Sequitur
Sequitur's picture

CRM and LNKD folks. Two of the most overvalued pieces of shit in the market. PEs of 400+, welcome to fucking bubbleville.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:40 | 1723380 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

I laugh so much here at work watching the markets be manipulated higher on nothing but xenon, I can't believe I haven't been canned.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:42 | 1723388 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

hah what a ramp in 3min 60points jesus they mean business ahm I mean bonus :)))

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:18 | 1723557 fyrebird
fyrebird's picture

At these vols it's not even hard. HFT can pull it up 100 points in under an hour any day they want it to.

They wait for the day the humans start to sell. Then they'll laugh and walk off to have a beer. Game over, but it was a good run, is what they will say.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:44 | 1723946 walküre
walküre's picture

the other guy said 60 points to the upside in 3 mins on a "fire sale" day.

is that a record?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:48 | 1723392 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Should I buy vix straddles? This chart says so Chart Of The Day

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:27 | 1723603 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

Your chart sux- or are you that enamored with penis sizes whilst you type away in your mom's basement? Stupid ass post wasting my time.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:44 | 1723396 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

gotta close green to paint a happy end of month..

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:47 | 1723411 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

OT, gold is driving me nuts, here and now.   I've been waiting for a retest of the $1530s or lower, but yet nothing.   Charts look like they want to fall out of bed.    Would love to get one more chance at the high 1400s/low 1500s.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:00 | 1723773 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Sophist,

Hold on bro..............touble thou noggin not!

This dude rolls over, we will be getting shots a it round 1150-1200.

Gotta get a bigger truck.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:48 | 1723419 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Have not been 100% cash for a while. Feels good today. Gonna stay that way till next week, at least.  I keep watching copper, coal, ags, ferts and I see nothing good. And if China continues lower, bar the doors Katy.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:59 | 1723477 twotraps
twotraps's picture

agree.  very little on.  

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:48 | 1723420 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

"...officially worried ..".....I like that

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:31 | 1723617 s2man
s2man's picture

Yeah, like the BBC trader said, they make money whether it goes up or down.  Why would CITI be worried about S&P dropping? 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:51 | 1723433 Racer
Racer's picture

Ooooooo just look at the PPT in all their glorious action... they must be so scared, but soon they will be the only buyer of anything... and what then?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:53 | 1723440 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Why, Dow 30,000, that's "what then"!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:51 | 1723434 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

So we swing 36 points down throughout the whole day, until the last 30 min, then swing up 20 points.  Yeah, these markets are normal and health...lulz!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:53 | 1723444 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

+300 day for tomorrow.  no doubt.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:55 | 1723453 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Or +3.00 day tomorrow.  As long as its green...

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:54 | 1723445 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

This market is broken.  That is to say, completely manipulated.  They need a green print for tomorrow, so the 401(k) statements will show Joe and Alice Sixpack that their clusterfuck of a life of spending every nickel and dime they earn on taxes and/or iCrap is not for naught.

Lest  there be a revolt, etc. etc. 

Manipulation BITCHEZ!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:54 | 1723449 caerus
caerus's picture

cu is leading the es down imo...

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:54 | 1723450 doomz78
doomz78's picture

Here comes the 1545 market rally..   CNBC called it a miracle.  hahahaha  Rigged market.  lol Here comes the Nasdaq from a 200 point low. its at minus 50, 40, 25..  please give me some green bitchezzzz..     And capatilism has worked.  Thank you federal reserve and big investment banks.  Operation twist was a success.  And thank you European comission for passing that bailout fund.   Capatilism is a success!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:57 | 1723466 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Quick!! Everyone BTFD on AMZN!! This is a headfake, they just came out with a new shiny distraction....I mean, tablet! 

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:02 | 1723490 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Knowing them, they're probably selling it at a loss.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:58 | 1723469 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Easy $100 Million day for GS today.  Like shooting day traders in a barrel.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:01 | 1723486 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

move after hours will be huge.  either hit day low or today's high which ever GS thinks is easier.  then gap open tomorrow and ramp into the close.  Hello 3 qtr bonus.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:03 | 1723492 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Die C.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:05 | 1723503 doomz78
doomz78's picture

cnbc is wondering what happened here???   A senior trader also said he was perplexed by this late move.   They quickly pointed the camera away from him. hahaha  wow.  Im not surprised but a bit shocked.  This is a blantant farce.  How could someone trade in this crap.  I feel sorry for those dudes. 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:09 | 1723517 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Feal sorry?  They make $million plus a year and all they do is push buttons.  It's not there capital.  they are the bookies making the vig.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:05 | 1723506 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Yep, the market will plunge. Any day now. New lows dead ahead. Just you wait and see.

Perhaps the Great Pumpkin will bring the market plunge for us on All Hallow's Eve. I'm grabbing my safety blanket and heading to the pumpkin patch to await his arrival.

Anybody wanna join me?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:07 | 1723512 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

the vix is a joke for forecasting and citi is even a bigger joke

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:08 | 1723513 fdisk
fdisk's picture

CNBC million dollar portfolio mostly held

Player Location
1. Drew Mantel Ohio, US
2.Peter Stacy Herts, UK
3. Patrick M. Cromwell Connecticut, US
4.Suzy Hempstead California, US
5.John W Grosvenor NSW, AUS

*Leaders as of 09/28/11.

Symbol 09/28 Close % Change
BAC 6.16 -4.94%
S 3.08 -1.60%
FAS 10.94 -6.26%
F 9.93 -1.88%
SDS 24.68 +1.76%

========

I guess "drinking beer and do nothing", performed much better *L*

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:37 | 1723651 caerus
caerus's picture

it's easy to trade when you have nothing to lose

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:08 | 1723515 Mr_Wonderful
Mr_Wonderful's picture

Nice job as usual Tylers.

Keep it up and best of luck, Mr. W.

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:10 | 1723523 Quadlet
Quadlet's picture

Tylers...  Still waiting for the end of day ES ramp 'n hedge chart...

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:12 | 1723534 ivana
Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:14 | 1723541 adr
adr's picture

Cedar Point needs to bring out a new roller coaster called Wall Street. Problem is that it won't last long because it will kill every single rider.

I don't think we can call these late day actions short squeezes anymore. This is just the Fed plain out buying stocks through its proxies. What kind of action was that in the S&P, there had to be a whole lot of flash crashes and flash jumps in there somewhere.

Cramer had to be going skitzo all day long, he didn't know which personality he needed for tonight. You can't be a daytrader anymore, you'll get killed. You have to be a minute trader. If you get up to take a shit you can be wiped out.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:23 | 1723574 Soul Train
Soul Train's picture

agreed, you're right.

It seems smoothing 1 minute SMAs are all the rage.

Long term investors are smoothing 2 minute. </sarc>

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:14 | 1723542 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

I fully expect the futures to be up 24 by 9:30 tomorrow (yesterdays High).  Anyone want to take the over or under?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:25 | 1723589 Soul Train
Soul Train's picture

do you at  least get a free drink if you sit at the table and play long enough???

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:16 | 1723550 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

http://english.aljazeera.net/video/asia/2011/09/20119298017650695.html

Rising value of gold hits Indian pockets As the price of gold rises, the giving of gifts such as jewellery during Diwali is becoming increasingly expensive.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kh4KwBQveqw

Thirteen doctors and nurses who treated anti-government protesters during major demonstrations in Bahrain earlier this year have also been jailed for 15 years for crimes against the state.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:55 | 1723754 DosZap
DosZap's picture

JW,

Rising value of gold hits Indian pockets As the price of gold rises, the giving of gifts such as jewellery during Diwali is becoming increasingly expensive.

WONT BE THIS YEAR...................

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:18 | 1723555 walküre
walküre's picture

Heard a rumor.

Market is closed tomorrow. PTT is exhausted.

Shorts locked. Starting Monday is redemption time.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:30 | 1723606 Soul Train
Soul Train's picture

heard another rumor, the late upward surge in ES this afternoon was a Chavez rally.

If his kidney does indeed fail overnight, expect a follow through run up to the next support line.

You are now advised.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:34 | 1723639 walküre
walküre's picture

now that's bearish!

oil will plummet to $75

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:27 | 1723596 fdisk
fdisk's picture

Let me tell ya, when 90% PPL anticipated that S&P should and would drop to at least 800 in the near term, guess what, It will break 1125 upwards instead, Remember GOLD 2000 Call not to long ago, probably 90% was sure about that and where it is now? Since 80%+ people loosing money and 90% anticipated huge Drop in S&P index, guess what, look out ABOVE, - wanna BET??? When 90% are shorting Market.. Get ready for break up, I know, sure I'll get -10 but that's how it works.. Just watch and learn. Those shorts are asking for trouble and that BBC freak in Pink short, band over too :))))

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:30 | 1723615 Blorf
Blorf's picture

Maybe the volatility has something to do with every hedge fund and trader dry humping 3x ETFs every day to eek out a few percent?

We have the most idiotic capital market structure. This is how we're supposed to allocate resources to companies to keep the economy moving? High frequency trading and "investors" placing Triple inverse bets on which way the price of a sector is going to move in the next 45 mins?

We have exactly the market we deserve.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:33 | 1723638 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

And the government and society we deserve, too.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:49 | 1723710 s2man
s2man's picture

How do I deserve this gov, if it didn't matter which side of the isle I voted for?

Disclosure: been voting TP for years, just to voice my disapproval. 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:33 | 1723630 i love cholas
i love cholas's picture

Michael Vix

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:36 | 1723644 Mr_Wonderful
Mr_Wonderful's picture

Citi is "officially worried".

Yeah, I bet.

The number of October put option contracts against the S&P 500 is up like 100,000% from the usual monthly average. Next month will be heaven and hell for volatility traders.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:46 | 1723701 The4thStooge
The4thStooge's picture

noob question. when you play the vix, does buying or selling cause it to go up or down? or is it soley priced based on put/call option speads?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:51 | 1723723 stocksugg
stocksugg's picture

Hedge Fund Blow up

With the massive downdraft in momentum stocks today there has been speculation of a hedge fund blow-up. Those rumors now appear to be centered on John Thaler's JAT Capital. While we cannot verity if these rumors are true, the fund owns many of today's worst performers.

Some of his biggest positions includes:

Sina Corp (Nasdaq: SINA) down 10%
Priceline.com (Nasdaq: PCLN) down 6%
Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) down 10%
Wynn Resorts (Nasdaq: WYNN) down 10%
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (Nasdaq: GMCR) down 9%
NetFlix (Nasdaq: NFLX) down 12%
Molycorp, Inc. (NYSE: MCP) down 5%.

You can see the entire portfolio here.

News Provided by Acquire Media Corporation

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:11 | 1723813 walküre
walküre's picture

JAT seems to be ahead of the curve then.

That's worth something, isn't it? Soon they will all blow because they suck so much.

Remember mutual funds anyone? Same will happen to hedge funds.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:16 | 1723831 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Translation - the market is so broken that even the algos are befuddled.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:20 | 1723849 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

we rallied

 

sorry bearz   

 

bear trap

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:22 | 1723861 Nate H
Nate H's picture

could just as easily be viewed as a double top...

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:40 | 1723941 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

While I won't disagree with the content of this "research", one really has to question the sanity of taking advice from a bank, Citi, that was insolvent and would have been liquidated if not by the grace of Uncle Ben, Grandpa Hank, and Cousin Timmy.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:58 | 1723986 max2205
max2205's picture

Count em , 6 bear traps in a month. 5 bull traps. Per 60 min chart. 100's on the 5 min chart. Fuck what a rollercoaster 5% on the 60 min chart now is about 1/4 in tall.

Trade 1 min charts till vix goes below 30 imo

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 18:46 | 1724098 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

With this high volatility, it's pretty safe to short on a rally day like this. Unfortunately I was busy closing out my longs bought at yeasterday's close, totally forgot to initiate new shorts. Never mind, still made about 10K at the end of the day.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 19:15 | 1724141 Mr_Wonderful
Mr_Wonderful's picture

It´s going to get much better for volatility traders as Oct. 20th expiration draws closer.

I think you need to stay short but you should stay very alert and agile.

The economy is clearly nosediving from balance sheet corrections and the rush into cash anticipating falling prices -  somewhat apologetic numbers from producers of official statistics notwithstanding. Since it will belatedly be officially in the tank in November to December a major stock market crash next month is highly likely. For some reason they seem to like October for their major transfers of wealth and Tuesday seems to be the day of choice. So watch out extra carefully  for the 4th, 11th and the 18th of next month.

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 19:26 | 1724178 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

I think there are two possible scenarios:

 

1) we go down from here, S&P to visit 1000.

2) wo go up to make a kiss of death, do a chart compare between SPY 6/1/2006-6/1/2008 and SPY 6/1/2010 - now, you will see a perfect match.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 20:24 | 1724351 Mr_Wonderful
Mr_Wonderful's picture

Mr. Bull has given up on the idea of an ascending trade channel from the July to August plunge. This model broke down about the middle of this month and is now decidedly descending. Nasdaq had a more convincing ascending channel formation out of the starting holes but that has faltered as well. These developments are indicative of a bear market behavior. IMO.

In my opinion these markets are still mired in a secular bear market after the incredible bull run from 1982-2000. The market will always over and undershoot, like all of us do but if left in peace it will seek equilibrium given current conditions and future expectations.

What has become increasingly troubling is the constant meddling of policymakers with the market, Over time the market has somehow reverted from its most important and intrinsic function of being a leading economic indicator - to leading the economy itself! This is a very dangerous policy and it´s doomed to fail. The longer it´s maintained the more severe the eventual corrections will be.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 21:01 | 1724457 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Well said Mr. Wonderful.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 20:33 | 1724377 chump666
chump666's picture

If credits blow out so will the VIX. 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 20:55 | 1724441 Mr_Wonderful
Mr_Wonderful's picture

Things change and nowadays they change very rapidly indeed, However, the system and all its experts is mostly interested in maintainig status quo and preferably expanding its unemployment reservoirs. The more illiterate idiots with faux degrees they hire the more demand for assistants to those idiots and so on. So, stupidity has become economically stimulative but the market didn´t have any say in that. It´s just left with the consequences.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 21:01 | 1724456 saywhat
saywhat's picture

CitiFX has called 20 of the last 2 crashes...aka..scarey charts

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