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just okay or ooooooookaaaaaaaaay?
Can someone please break this down a bit? I am not really sure why a double v suggests a dramatic drop in the S&P. Thanks in advance for the help!
Also, how would you best play this?
Best play: fade Robotrader.
heard another rumor, the late upward surge in ES this afternoon was a Hugo Chavez rally.
If his kidney does indeed fail overnight while in hospital, expect a follow through run up to the next support line.
You are now advised.
Anyway you look at it, it's bullish. Even if his kidneys don't fail, there will be a continued possibility that he might die of cancer later this year or suffer other complications which would seem to indicate a bullish stance for the West and ES in general. Couple that with prospects for QE+++ and Europe resolved and we may just see SPY 1450 by Christmas day.
Another plus is that none of this Chavez concern affects Greek debt or any of the other PIIG issues. More reason to load up on ES and cover any shorts.
Life is good, and all is on the up and up.
Will be watching futures overnight and DAX CAC FTSE opening in the morning.
ps, and disclosure, --- now with GS, previous Citi and JPM trading desks.
I'd be willing to bet the S&P will see 1050 before it sees 1450. I'd stake my amateur reputation on it.
But thanks for your GS heads up. Fading...
the vix is supposed to be an indicator of the implied volatility of ES options, the article argues that from a technical perspective it looks like the vix is going to break to the upside...the article then assumes that given the current market, a vix breakout implies a selloff in the ES...but a high vix isn't necessarily bearish...personally, i wouldn't trade off what the vix is doing
Tom Lee on Bloomberg just reiterated his 1475 S&P year end target...what a crack smoker!!!
Where was the decimal point?
Thank you very much Caerus
vix is showing a bull flag here.
The VIX is basically a news cycle indicator. Volatility in the market is driven by the news. It's basically a heart monitor of the markets. I can't see how you would even want to trade off this chart. It's not completely useless. But if you are a day trader I wouldn't even look at it.
You seriously don't know what you're talking about. You can take the VIX and divide by the square root of the number of trading days in a year. That number, expressed in percentage terms, gives you the next days implied trading range. If you're a day trader and don't use it you are lacking a useful tool. It works better when VIX is over 35 and not so well when volatility is low.
For example, today's VIX closed at 38.62.
38.62/15.87 = 2.43%
Tomorrow's /ES range will be approximately 2.43%, or 28-29 points. That gives you an idea of what to look for off any pivots high or low.
The markets are so fucking rigged. My bad for not making that more clear.
/ES range for 9-30-11....27.25. That's pretty damn close to what I said last night. Know the tool. Use the tool.
Dooooode it's a DOUBLE UU. Get it? Awesomeness.
Now go short some Spyders.
nice shades, no wonder you're not selling burgers. scary.
They fired me I think.
So, droopy tits then?
@Frog and Toad
Double tops and double bottoms are pretty stong juju, kind of like Gandolf on the bridge telling the Balrog 'You shall not pass' (not the Monty Python knight on the bridge saying 'None shall pass' sort of weak juju). How they predict how far past the peak it will go has always seemed a bit stetched to me but the double bottom has a lot of psychological power for the market. I know when I saw the double bottom form I said 'time to buy some VIX calls' :). Plays you can make are short positions on almost anything S&P friendly or long positions on inverse funds. I like puts on SPY and AAPL, and calls on VIX. This gives gains if VIX continues up and the (assumed) fall in index equities occurs. I included AAPL because I think the stuff spraying off the fan blades will make people start dumping their profitable positions as well as the stocks that have already taken a hit to the chin. If you like to sleep at night you might avoid options and short SPY or buy inverse funds, leveraged or not, FAZ and TZA are pretty liquid. You can buy VXX shares to kinda sorta play the VIX index but I don't like the fund personally. Critiques from those smarter than me are always welcome.
You just wanted to be first, admit it OK?
I've traded options since 2006. The CBOE is conductor of such volitility indexes. I've had the real time charts up for it and see no value in it. It was more a vehicle to program implied volitility for the thousands of option chains.
When the flash crash happened. The option chains went fucking nuts, right along with it. nickel asks went to a buck. It is not a reliable indicator for us plain folk.
It is european style options chain, to trade and used for market makers programmed pricing, and oh, don't forget a way to fuck the hedgers to protect themselves, and steal a little more cash.
There is a reason for everything and your protection is not one of them.
[Peter Falk voice]You haven't lived until you've done it with a waitress. A big fat blondie waitress. I don't know what them society dames are like in the kit, but you ain't never had it until you made it with a big, fat, blondie waitress. If you're ever interested, give me a call.
Have no fear. The Plunge Protection Team will not let it happen.
Here they come. Gov capital a blazen.
Volume dumped off on the spike, funds setting up for end of q?
PPT with the stick save at the close!
1015???? We might hit that tomorrow.........VXX and metals are the play......and of course short the S&P with two hands.
SDS & SH FTW!
Yep - just mentioned this exact same thing in your other post below.... Pull up a chart of the VXX as well. This set a new high today as well....
The charts all seem in PERFECT alignment for some significant volatility.
hold on to your shorts boys and girls...
If Citi is telling me to get short, I'm going balls to the wall long.
The infamous Double Rainbow pattern
geez. been watching that and now that its "out there", there is no chance it plays out. F-you Citi!!!!
There's still a chance. The purpose of the report IMHO is to screw the hedge funds, those irritating little competitors to Citi and the TBTF. If tomorrow is a big down day plus this report plus the recent chorus of gloomers on the MSM the hedge fund customers will jump ship tomorrow, the last day they can before the end of the year. Why else did they put some no name trader on television to say the world is ending? There's a lot of guys on MSM talking 1000 recently. They're right but why does the cheerleading media put them on. If they can knock off a few percent more hedge fund customers with this post it ends up as less friction for them for the rest of the year. Watch the sell off on Monday when the funds have to liquidate to dispense the funds. Apple will take a hard blow. It already is getting hit harder than it should. Expect even more choreographed media hype about the dire problems ahead. If I'm right Monday will be epic. Who knows?
SPY vs. FXE spread almost closed.
Us markets are way over valued compared to the rest of the world. Expect a 15% drop by end of October at least!
VIX is funny... isn't it suppossedly tracking volatility? It seems more to track markets crashing.
Considering that the market has been stable to up since march 2009, any change in the VIX is a sign of 'volatility' and it will reflect more 'volatility' if we get those same 700 pt. up and down days once again (before the November 2008-March 2009 lows)
IMHO their plan is to let those that are misled into 401K using shitty dollar cost avereging method suffer their financial waterloo first. Then those people will beg to suck Bernanke's three-inch dick in the hope of hisPerpectual QE. Fuck it.
see it vice versa. There is not other way to break 1,000 apart from VIX breaking 48. My target is for VIX is 60 and it's coming mid NOV. The rest will be history...
and 1100 break on the S&P will probably get you about 60 on the VIX.
I once dated a girl that I'd also describe as a double bottomed triangle.
Savvy traders call this the dreaded camel toe pattern. Except for Rastani who dreams of camel toes.
Imagine the huge prices now being paid for puts with the VIX and VXN screaming towards the highs.
"No price is high enough"
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