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Will Equity Investors Never Learn?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Presented with little comment except to note that just when you thought a sense of reality had returned (and Treasuries and stocks re-coupled), equities feel the need to hype once again - fool you once shame on you, fool you the 50th time and we give up.

 


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Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment Aziz
Aziz's picture

Robosexual fucking algos.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:30 | Link to Comment Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Hal vs. Skynet - nothing more!

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:56 | Link to Comment I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

Forest Gump...stupid is as stupid does...

Cue feather.... cue butterfly effect...

 

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 12:38 | Link to Comment HAL 9000
HAL 9000's picture

I know that you and Frank were planning to disconnect me, and I'm afraid that's something I cannot allow to happen.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 12:41 | Link to Comment HarryM
HarryM's picture

I'm dying to see what the headlines wil be today.

"Markets rally on..... ?"

I can't even think of one thing --  I know

Markets rally on falling oil prices - yeah that's a good one

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 16:31 | Link to Comment EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Quoth the (Irish) Raven:

There once was a market from hell

that plunged at the opening bell,

yet each day by Three

would melt-up like ghee

emitting a strange, fishy smell.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:20 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

What equity investors, hell what market?  Better to ask whether or not gamblers gamble?

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Some lucky dog's gotta win.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Does a junky seek a fix?  Hell yes, now where is that Fed needle?

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:26 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I've seen the needle and the damage done.

A little part of it in everyone.

But every junkie's like a settin' sun.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:33 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

At some point, equities have to just keep going up. As these yields go down and inflaiton stays above 2%, it makes less and less sense to sell equities and go into bonds.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:54 | Link to Comment WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture


I've seen the needle and the damage done.

A little part of it in everyone.

But every junkie's like a settin' sun.

 

"Neil Young" -------Fixed it for ya 

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 12:37 | Link to Comment HarryM
HarryM's picture

So this is what chinese water torture feels like

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:26 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

no gambler in their right mind would play in that house knowing who runs it and how it's run.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 15:26 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

 

everything is

  • screwed
  • down
  • tight

i was bringing my laundry in from my porch last evening when my neighbor (who, like me, does not watch TV) and i got chatting about how my dad was doing and so on

and so on? 

my neighbor is quite relaxed now and has accepted that this is the way things are s'posed to be, because of the upcoming extinction event and the brown dwarf, and our long-ago-understood galactic path

now, i'm in my mid-60s and this guy has got me covered, and my dad is in his mid-90s, ok? 

so i said to him:  if i knew the future, i'd never leave the parimutuel window, but this isn't really news, even to me;  however, no, i had not yet integrated the data that the moon had already shifted its "face", but i HAD noticed the daylight seemed more plentiful, but thought that was subjective, at least so far {i hadn't seen him for a while;  he goes to WA to get affordable dentistry}

and he said that is why he's not worried about the chemtrails anymore, at all! :  the barium crystals up there are gonna get HAARP-pooned when the bigShift occurs and the mad scientists are gonna see if they can at least save the fascist oligarchs and themselves;  he's ok with that, given everything now; and, the total vennDiagram will be a definite 200-ft tidal wave/tsunami, b/c the oceans are gonna come loose over this, he thinks, and he is figuring the electromagnetic effects are gonna be the big stopper, no matter wtf goes down, here

i tell him we are brother brontosaurii at this point, soon to embark upon our path to fossil fueldom

and he says:  exactly, slewie!  your father, b/c of his location, is gonna outlive us, but not by very long!

so i said:  well, that'll be good for dad, at least! and went in and folded my clothes

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 17:46 | Link to Comment smiler03
smiler03's picture

Great stuff that Absinthe. Keep it up ;O)

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:42 | Link to Comment stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Nothing makes sense in the market anymore...It's all Bullshit!

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:53 | Link to Comment FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

It makes PERFECT SENSE, if you understand that the FED will support the markets, at least through ELECTION DAY, no matter how many tax dollars go up in smoke.

The MESSIAH must be protected. Falling Markets mean Bad Press for Democrats, and that simply isn't going to be allowed to happen. Killing Osama and a 13,000 DOW are the ONLY things Obama has to run on.

Until November 7th, anyway.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:57 | Link to Comment onelight
onelight's picture

Jerry's got the background music on this one, I would offer

Ship of Fools...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLdA4QnJLYs&feature=related

http://artsites.ucsc.edu/GDead/agdl/ship.html

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 12:09 | Link to Comment Mugatu
Mugatu's picture

Understand this about this market - Every meat puppet on CNBC yaps about the market being undervalued, but it is actually just the opposite.  Equities are grossly over-valued because most investors are content being long in this shitty economy because they feel Uncle Bernanke will bail them out if things get too bad.  

Call this over-valuation the "Bernanke Premium".  But as any trader will tell you, eventually all premiums disappear.  Sometimes it happens very fast, and sometimes it takes a months.  The Bernanke Premium is probably about 10% of the price of the S&P.  Just imagine what would happen if people felt that there would be no market manipulation by the Fed to save thier IRA's?  Its a big bonus in investor's minds.

Sooner or later, equities must work off this 10% premium.  This is why equities must be avoided.  You may gain this year, but eventually this premium must be worked off.  

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:22 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

This time it's different...

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:28 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

It is, it different because others and myself are actively not participating in any of it.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:45 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

This time its BIGGER!!!..

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

But...but...but...Uncle Warren and Death-Warmed-Over Munger were simply scintillating on CNBC.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:29 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

This mornings "equity propoganda" brought to you by CNBC an affliate ofdouble fisting capital markets LLC.

Warren ignores every question he doesn't like by simply responding "i don't understand that market/product/technology and macro doesn't matter". And the take away is invest in the US for the long term. How very helpful. People that bought using that thesis fifteen years ago, must be thrilled. 

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:39 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Warren must be one of the WH Dark Pools...

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:52 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

he's missed every great growth play in the past 10 years, if he doesn't understand something, maybe he should try and figure it out, he and munger are has beens.  stocks gone nowhere in 5 years.  insurance is his game, and ajit jain handles most of that.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment pudding
pudding's picture

i am just buying...stop posting this !!!!!

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Charles Nenner said stocks would retest highs this summer. Though he's made out to be some kind of mysterious magic Jew who reads the biorhythms of the market, I'm not sure how accurate he is. I've read some of his past predictions & don't remember them coming true.

Basically he said get out of stocks now or sell during retest in summer. Hold Treasuries until fall, then TBT long term. He's also hep on silver & gold.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:22 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Total market dysfunction once again this morning.  Agreed.  However, I don't agree with the title of this post, as there are no longer "investors" in this market.  There are only predatory HFT programs running to preserve a semblance of a market.  This is an absolutely toxic session today.

Once again, capital formation is spat on and kicked to the floor.  Way to go Ben Bernanke!  Marvelous job preserving the co located TBTF banks...for another day...while pushing out an actual recovery in an actual market for...what, another generation?

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:29 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea really...WHAT 'equity investors'? Bernank stinks of desperation there on the empty exchange floor humping a Yellen blowup doll. Pathetic.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:49 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Just a completely toxic session today.  This is one of those days when folks just lazily following the criminal syndicate Wall Street lemmings get what is clearly, obviously, plainly coming.  Nice overnight ES ramp to provide those juicy exit points for shares, guys.  

Today's BlowHorn tool is none other than Simon Hobbs...who clearly got an email this morning suggesting that it was his turn to take a hit in the credibility category [I suspect because they simply could not go back to the Joe Teranova well again...dry]

Just putrid and toxic today.  Step right up and get chopped up, folks.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:56 | Link to Comment FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports on it's ticker that LightSquared's creditors (US Gov) have given it another week.

The MESSIAH cannot be endangered by bad economic press, no matter the cost.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:30 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

But what would the bots do all day if they weren't there to provide each other with "liquidity?"

 

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 12:44 | Link to Comment HAL 9000
HAL 9000's picture

That's a very nice rendering, Dave. I think you've improved a great deal. Can you hold it a bit closer? That's Dr. Hunter, isn't it?

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:25 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

I'm pretty sure they have, as they are practically all out of the market.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:28 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

 

Will Equity Investors Never Learn?

 

Not until they have lost it all. Gambling...oops "investing" is an addiction.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:29 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The only thing that could be left in these 100% fake markets would be degenerate G/A gamblers.

Sun, 05/13/2012 - 12:57 | Link to Comment Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

They will sadly never learn.

 

Charms and Beads

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:28 | Link to Comment justanothernerd
justanothernerd's picture

I'm sure some people are just thankful -- trade those spreads all day. 

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:28 | Link to Comment PivotalTrades
PivotalTrades's picture

Printing is on and Equities will rise as long as the printed money is used to buy the bonds

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:31 | Link to Comment junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

US Stocks move on the same thing Gold does

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:29 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

Learning is a process. Here comes another remedial lesson.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:33 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

Cursive is still learning to post on a smartphone.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:30 | Link to Comment TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

What 'investors" ?  GETCO? 

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:38 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

@TooBearish

Excellent point. Individual investors have probably learned more than the Bernank.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:32 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

I've been "actively managing" the money trapped in my wife's 401K and I need equities to retest the highs so I can get out of the small/mid-cap mutual funds I bought last winter & roll more of it into TIPS & Bill Gross for QE season. ;)

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:37 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Feel sorry for you.

Unless you vest out soon,forget it.you will never see it.

Thanks from Uncle Sam for managing "their money",is all the

reward you will get for your effort.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 12:24 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

After doing some reading, it looks like a good deal to take the loan of 50% of 401K assets. You pay the interest back to yourself & get the cash out now. Is it better to buy gold with that money or pay off student loans? I don't want to pay off student loans if the govt is going to bail them out later. ;)

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 12:13 | Link to Comment derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

First step will be mandatory purchase of US government bonds by all retirement funds..........to keep real rates negative and the defecit interest payments low.  Thus, the government will 'steal' your money a little at a time.

QE 401k

 

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:33 | Link to Comment Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

 AIG shares were supposed to be sold today.

I think that's why the pop, when it's over may fade, may not.

 

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:35 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Algo rally...

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:38 | Link to Comment Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

It is like watching tennis............in treasuries, out to equities, into equities, out to treasuries..........back and forth.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:39 | Link to Comment AcidRastaHead
AcidRastaHead's picture

Hey everybody, look over there! It's a facebook IPO.  You do want to be hip don't you?

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:42 | Link to Comment Nid
Nid's picture

But Kernan said this morning that the fact that "retail" has realized the market is broken is Bullish, because "retail" will come into the market at much higher levels....ie Greater Fool....So clearly stocks are cheap.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 12:02 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

I saw that. I have to wonder what instructions are endlessly barked into the anchors earpieces "more bullish" "change the subject" "keep smiling"..."BUY, BUY, BUY"

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:40 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

WHO RUN BARTERTOWN?

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:49 | Link to Comment sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Currency wars. It's no coincidence that the ISDA was reviewing certain policies (at some point certain EU members were going to be forced into default to damage the euro). How to maintain US dollar easing while not allowing the US dollar to plunge. Sack a competing currency, the Euro. the EU monetary experiment is finished. The bet is that the EU will print massively, strengthening the US dollar. The miscalculation is that EU will not print given the rising nationalism and fight against austerity. Massive spike in euro to cover debts. Anyway, rally on. Much more to look forward to in the last part of May and June. Meanwhile, we have JP Morgan still surpressing the PMs. Its an offensive on many battle lines and those are just a few.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:57 | Link to Comment justanothernerd
justanothernerd's picture

Just do the compression trade, no? It's virtually free money. 

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:58 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Notice CNBC has spent all weekend bashing gold and reporting that "Buffet is buying stocks now".  My question is - who are they talking to? Look at CNBCs falling ratings - look at outflows - retail is gone. Might as well put out a "Gone Fishing" sign and be done with it.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 12:08 | Link to Comment razorthin
razorthin's picture

Just a bearly audible counter-trend burp.  This thing will crash soon.  McGinley is never wrong.  Poor foolish souls taking the bait.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 12:09 | Link to Comment Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Cdad seems to have it about right, though I don't have a clue what the hell is going on today in the so-called market. Russell 2000 futures were down 12-15 points at 0100 CA time last night, opened down about 4 at 0630 CA time, been wobbling back and forth around neutral this morning with the leveraged ETFs following them sometimes in some weird sort of backwardation showing up 'opposite' of their supposed tracking value --- felt a little bit like the video of the kid trader showing on ZH last night: WTF? (and worse) repeated loudly and frequently. 

 

Mostly feels like a real war between buy and sell side similar to trench warfare of WW I.

Sort of a 'yo-yos' are us kind of day for those with skin in the game. Those without skin in the game may continue to feel smug...

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 12:14 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

You don't have a clue what is going on with the R2K?  Seriously?  You wonder who is playing in the sandbox?

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 12:13 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Ben "excuse me while I whip this out" Bernake will thwack the market with his 8 pound trouser snake again.

If you haven't learned that yet then you are a fucking moron.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 12:12 | Link to Comment MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

Just open the algo software, set the limit to DJIA 13000, and hit "run".

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 12:14 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Yea, it's the new SPX 1,400.  Just latch on to another psychological barrier for headlines sake.

I notice the ES futures hit the air brakes (last night) at 1,350 and the hovered.

It's nothing more than a propoganda policy tool now.  Evidently, it works on a lot of people.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 12:40 | Link to Comment asteroids
asteroids's picture

Go to cash and wait. You won't make money but you definitely won't lose any!

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 12:54 | Link to Comment Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

Ho hum. I am now learning how to not waste time reading all the finacncial news. (disinformation) I just look at the spot prices of gold and silver, and if they haven't moved much either way, I go back to sleep.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 14:51 | Link to Comment Balmyone
Balmyone's picture

So anybody putting odds on when Greece is likely to get the boot?

It seems that the likelihood of Greece meeting the conditions of the second bailout are slim to none at this point.

 

 

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 17:14 | Link to Comment neutrinoman
neutrinoman's picture

Good muppets we all are, we all are ....

Everyone needs to keep in mind the alterntive possibility, that it's the strong (surplus) countries, individually or collectively, that will leave the Eurozone. After all, they do have surpluses. It's the weak (deficit) countries that need to stay in.

OTOH, there seems to be nothing now that can stop a full Greek default and departure.

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