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Will The Fall Of Europe's Discontent Follow The Glorious Summer Made By This Head Of The ECB

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Measuring the 'contentedness' during this summer of total comfort is tricky. With equities at the year's highs in nominal prices in the US and breaking multi-month highs in Europe, how do we 'know' the relative richness or cheapness (or hope or despair) that is priced into stocks and what the 'fall' ahead looks like. We may have found a way. Europe's economic and implicitly market performance is very much based on the explicit belief that the EMU remains in tact and that Draghi's recent 'promise' will enable sovereigns to go about their economic business (austerity and growth) without the hindrance of those nasty speculating long-only fixed income managers repricing cost-of-funds and eating into the nation's growth. In the US, it's all about multiples - P/E expansion (in the face of lower 'E') has maintained the hope; and so it is in Europe. The following chart shows the extremely high correlation between European equity P/E (hope multiples) and European Sovereign risk. At the end of LTRO2, European stocks were exuberant only to fade away; currently, European stock multiples are once again back to those exuberant 'hope' heights. Trade accordingly.

While European sovereigns have indeed rallied, P/E multiples have expanded in a much more hopeful manner (after notably falling into a much more despairing mood in May and early June). As the lower pane shows, the BE 500 (Europe's S&P 500 equivalent) are around 4pts (or about 2.5%) expensive to sovereign risks - having rallied notably rich from the EU Summit...

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:05 | 2714765 diogeneslaertius
diogeneslaertius's picture

if youre real nice and sign over all sovereignty we will turn the economy back on

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:18 | 2714804 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

...we will strongly suggest that we will turn the economy back on

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:19 | 2714810 diogeneslaertius
diogeneslaertius's picture

haha yes

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:27 | 2714833 redpill
redpill's picture

OT:  Best headline ever

 

GERALDO ASKS IF NAPOLITANO HAS LET A 'LESBIAN CABAL' TAKE OVER DHS

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-TV/2012/08/17/Geraldo-Asks-if-Napolitano-has-let-lesbian-cabal-take-over-DHS

 

Lesbian cabals, bitchez

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:33 | 2714847 diogeneslaertius
diogeneslaertius's picture

that story is so crazy, clear case of widespread deliberate emasculation of male employees

 

kind of describes the entire moden era really, you are not allowed to be a man

 

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:39 | 2714868 redpill
redpill's picture

Perhaps Chuck Norris should run for President, and The Most Interesting Man In the World can be his running mate.  Together, they can re-inject modern society with machismo.

At least it would make for better press conferences. 

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:56 | 2714932 adr
adr's picture

Chuck Norris is a Republican.

Chuck Norris and The Motor City Madman 2016

JUST IMAGINE THAT TICKET!!!!

How can they lose?

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:58 | 2714935 redpill
redpill's picture

It would be a....Free for All?

They would have the competition in a...Stranglehold?

Once Janet Napolitano was canned it would give her more time to devour... Wang Dang Sweet Poontang? 

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 04:08 | 2716222 Western
Western's picture

"save the males"

 

google it

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:47 | 2714899 csmith
csmith's picture

Lesbian cabal...

 

Anagram for "babes a call' in"

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:49 | 2714905 redpill
redpill's picture

Also an anagram for "Angry manatees that use diesel instead of coffee creamer"

 

Ok, not really.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:37 | 2714861 strongband
strongband's picture

Believe me, we will turn on the economy.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:05 | 2714766 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

Bonds telling us something today...ultra bond biddish - http://hedge.ly/QCZwYk 

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:14 | 2714798 diogeneslaertius
diogeneslaertius's picture

ah-nice

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:06 | 2714770 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

they're keeping it together longer than people expected, hence the optimism

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:22 | 2714820 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Nothing succeeds like excess indeed...

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:06 | 2714771 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Yes, but will Facebook hold 19 today, or is it look out below?

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:12 | 2714793 john_connor
john_connor's picture

"trade accordingly."  Who, the computers?

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:18 | 2714808 diogeneslaertius
diogeneslaertius's picture

its going to be a real bitch when the computers decide to stop trading with Us

 

what happens when the $4Q #EconomicDeathstar Algo Hologram becomes self-aware

 

then its "i have no mouth and i must scream" time

http://www.surfturk.com/endoftheworld/ihavenomouth.html

 

perhaps our only hope at this point rests on the Artilects being better humans than we are

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:13 | 2714795 bankonthebust
bankonthebust's picture

Trade accordingly huh... I will continue to trade paper for guns, metal and food.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:15 | 2714800 diogeneslaertius
diogeneslaertius's picture

"I will continue to trade paper for guns, metal and food."

 

you sir, have balls of steel and I salute you

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:17 | 2714806 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

What the man really has is common sense.

"A wise man sees danger coming and prepares for it"

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:24 | 2714827 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Wiser still does not look a gift horse in the mouth.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:31 | 2714839 PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

Agreed.

@ArrestbobRubin: Sense is not common at all these days.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:21 | 2714813 resurger
resurger's picture

Hi,

I want to buy 5,000,000,000 Facebook stocks at sub penny price of 19.6666 can i get a fill on 0.0066

No!

how about 0.0067

No!

how about 0.0068

No!

how about 0.0069

No!

okay, fuck that

I want to sell 20,000,000,000 Facebook stocks at sub penny price of 19.6669 can i get a fill on 0.0069

No!

how about 0.0068

No!

how about 0.0067

No!

how about 0.0066

No!

WHERE THE FUCK IS THE VOLUME?!

 

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 01:27 | 2716142 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

My favorite post of the day!

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:27 | 2714831 tawse57
tawse57's picture

Nah, they are just talking about thinking about doing it.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 15:44 | 2715078 Conman
Conman's picture

Funny when Bernanke or Draghi talks bout thinking about doing it, we get a 1000 point dow rally.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:28 | 2714832 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

The Telegraph is mainstream. Don't listen to mainstream. They say what's in the interest of their bosses.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:29 | 2714837 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I imagine the dues rise substantially if one wishes to rejoin "Club Euro."

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:33 | 2714846 e-man
e-man's picture

But...but the VIX is at a 52 week low!  Surely the Finns can't believe anything bad could happen to the Euro while the "market" is sounding the all clear, right? /extreme sarc

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:27 | 2714830 tawse57
tawse57's picture

Give it a week or three and the banksters will suddenly decided there is enormous profit to be made in ramping Facebook.

It is beginning to look like one of the few tech shares that they can ramp up to try and lure in Joe Public retail investor.

 

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:59 | 2714941 adr
adr's picture

I just noticed another 1/3rd of Target's inventory going 30% off, to be followed by 70% off in a week or two. The vast majority of Back to School inventory is still sitting there.

Target used to have really cool products for kids leaving for college. This year it was all storage bins and plastic hangars. Bullish for profit margin though.

This economic scam is unbelievable.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 15:11 | 2714979 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

Greece makes another empty promise:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48704755

 

Who believes this shit anymore?

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 15:18 | 2714999 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

won't happen b4 october

trust me!

+4 tyler here!

he needs to pay the bar tab;  the neoCons left via the bathroom window...

keep drinking, tyler!

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 15:34 | 2715047 bagehot99
bagehot99's picture

I want my money back.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 15:36 | 2715053 bagehot99
bagehot99's picture

FB is flirting with 18.....19.02, 19.03, 19.02

 

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 16:42 | 2715308 falak pema
falak pema's picture

central bank risk is by definition NO risk; according to the Draghi beast. So by the same token if ECB prints to buy sovereigns, there is no such thingie as sovereign risk, once the ECB is fully on board! If and when Karlsruhe and Mutti say yes! yes!

In such a central bank scenario, if Mutti does say Jaja ja...then ECB/FED/BOE/BOJ will have to be joint and several all the way to hell freezing over! And that....is some gamble, as thieves always fall out on the way! 

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 17:15 | 2715399 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Tyler you just defined, with perfection I might add, the term " OXYMORONIC"...  Ref. below;

 " In the US, it's all about multiples - P/E expansion (in the face of lower 'E') "-----  "Europe's economic and implicitly market performance is very much based on the explicit belief that the EMU remains in tact and that Draghi's recent 'promise' will enable sovereigns to go about their economic business (austerity and growth) "

 

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