Will Gridlock Prevail?
There is plenty of talk about the looming Fiscal Cliff, but like so many other downside risks in this market, investors are not positioned for it as they appear convinced that it won't be allowed to happen or some compromise will occur. We remain on the side of the fence where nothing will occur; no compromise reached, until the governement is 'forced' by the market to take action - by some asset value plunge that scares then into scramble mode. Unfortunately, as these two simple charts from Morgan Stanley highlight, gridlock appears guaranteed (but then again, with a market economy at multi-year highs the incumbents remain dominant).
Obama is dominant - as markets go higher...
with Congressional control probabilities leaking a little but still dominated by Republicans holding both...
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