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Will Gridlock Prevail?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

There is plenty of talk about the looming Fiscal Cliff, but like so many other downside risks in this market, investors are not positioned for it as they appear convinced that it won't be allowed to happen or some compromise will occur. We remain on the side of the fence where nothing will occur; no compromise reached, until the governement is 'forced' by the market to take action - by some asset value plunge that scares then into scramble mode. Unfortunately, as these two simple charts from Morgan Stanley highlight, gridlock appears guaranteed (but then again, with a market economy at multi-year highs the incumbents remain dominant).

Obama is dominant - as markets go higher...

 

with Congressional control probabilities leaking a little but still dominated by Republicans holding both...

 

Gridlock?

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 


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Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment slaughterer
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If Wall street wants to get Obama out and repeal Frank-Dodd, then they have to crash the market.  

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Gridlock or communism?

 

Hold on.....I'm thinking about it.

 

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:15 | Link to Comment notbot
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i'm writing in Ron Paul...hope and change, lots of hope

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:16 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
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likewise, if for nothing more than sleeping easy.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:25 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Sleep tight comrade.

 

Hey....why do I have to go to the gulag? I voted for Ron Paul dammit!

 

It's OK.....in Fantasyland...you don't have to go to the gulag.

 

I'm not voting for Mitt......I'm voting for the other guy with him....it's the only way I can hack it.....we all have to find our ways to cope.

 

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:32 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

 

The ideal Presidential candidate needs to be an expert in the following fields:

  1. Economics
  2. Military operations
  3. Transport
  4. Infrastructure
  5. Healthcare
  6. International Negotiations
  7. International Law
  8. Philosophy

In this respect, both Barack H. Obama and Willard Milton Romney are ideal candidates for the role of President of the Unite States. Ron Paul, on the other hand, fails miserably on all accounts, having been discredited numerous times by the media, top economists and other members of congress. It comes as no surprise to me that Ron Paul was completely rejected by the American people - Ron Paul lacked credibility due to his outrageous views on the economy, the Federal Reserve and foreign policy. Now that the field has been cleared for the two most credible candidates, the real race for President of the United States can begin.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:37 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

If Ron Paul can't be President....I'm starting the campaign to make him Secretary of the Treasury.

 

Hey.....it's at least something. It would at least be four years of freakin fun. Oh look Ronny and Ben Shalom are at it......AGAIN!

 

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 16:40 | Link to Comment notbot
notbot's picture

Thanks, MDB, love the sarcasm.  The ideal candidate just has to know how to dismantle.  Let the mkt do the rest.

I wish the GOP would quit enganging the Dems on the president's role in the economy.  

His role is to get out of the way; by engaging the Dems, they give credence to the notion that command economies work.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 11:12 | Link to Comment spanish inquisition
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That is just rewarding the current system (such as the RNC's work in Maine and Mass on getting rid of Paul delegates).

I will be voting for Ron Paul with a write in candidate and I encourage everyone to write in a candidate of their own choice.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 10:09 | Link to Comment TheCanimal
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At least MillionDollarBonus has a sense of humor.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 11:39 | Link to Comment falak pema
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Point 9 most important of all : sucking up to the Squid and Bankster cabal. Don't get elected w/o that. Ron Paul did not know how to give a nod, let alone a head, to those jokers. His downfall. 

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:25 | Link to Comment withnmeans
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Fiscal Cliff;

After much thought over the weekend on those two words, I began to wonder.

Who said there is a "CLIFF"? What is their definition of a Fiscal Cliff? What is the general publics idea of a Fiscal Cliff?

My belief is when you run out of money in your checking account You have already fallen off of the cliff!

Therefore, trillions of dollars more in debt don't seem to be a problem anymore. We have already fallen to the depths of hell "Now we are looking up at the big Cliff".

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:32 | Link to Comment AU5K
AU5K's picture

more like gridlock and a government run by executive order.  obama simply dictates through edicts via the agencies, bureaus and departments.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:16 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

You are an idiot.  Dodd-Frank is a toothless bill already.  The last bit of real bank oversight and regulation was killed in the 90's.

The financial houses are in full control already.  Left... right... left... right... ...stupid sheep.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:26 | Link to Comment sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

The thought that congress would actually pass a bill that would hamper their influence, manipulation and control over others is simply shocking (sarc).

 

I agree with you whole heartedly, up arrow for you.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:27 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Dodd-Frank

 

I blame Yoko for breaking up the band.

 

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:07 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
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Long farmland, well armed neighbors, and sharecroppers, that is all.  What fucking "market" is this article talking about?  Hedge accordingly.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:21 | Link to Comment PeterSchump
PeterSchump's picture

Try not to wind up like these guys though....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kulak

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

This euro crisis blows my mind. Have you ever had a real crisis in your life, or in your family? In the middle of this crisis has your Dad ever stood up and said "HEY...HEEEY!!! EVERYONE SHUT UP FOR A MINUTE. LISTEN LET'S GO ON VACATION FOR A MONTH AND PICK THIS UP WHEN WE COME BACK....sound good?"

 

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

OK......I vote we call for an official end to the crisis.

 

Problem solved. Anything else?

 

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:11 | Link to Comment BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

That means it's not a crisis. You'll know it's a crisis when they go on even longer vacations for their own safety and try to "govern" from a bunker somewhere.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:23 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

We're bankrupt? HEY lets go on a road trip vacation! Nothin bad will happen while we're away and when we get back in a month it will all surely be fixed!

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 10:16 | Link to Comment 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

The Fucker's need to stay on vacation permently.. We the people will eventually get it sorted out.. Mason-Dixion style I figure.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:09 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

As I've been saying for a year now this fall/winter will be an utter disaster politically and fiscally.

Before they even deal with the "cliff" they have to deal with the ceiling which is fast approaching. I do think Timmy G is trying every trick in the book to stave it off( see Freddie and Fannie move last week).

But that day will come. Soon enough.

A lame duck session like the world has never seen.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:13 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
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The debt ceiling won't come up as a pressing issue until after the election.  Timmy will rape the pension funds before he allows that to become an issue.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Yes he will likely get it to cross the line but it will hit in the lame duck session no matter how much pillaging he does.

Also expect real bitterness if the Rs take the Senate and for whoever takes the Whitehouse.

It will be bitter.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

What they did with the debt ceiling last time was brilliant. They made a huge issue out of it. They brought it right to the last second....and then they raised it. Problem solved. No reprecussions. When it comes around this time there will be no panic. Just calls on both sides to raise it so we can get on with the real issues at hand.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Except that did not happen in the middle of an election which will have major consequences.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:19 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

correct, buying time through November.  The contrarian play here is no "market" downside until the election.  the "wild card" is a false flag event (completely unforeseen of course).

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:43 | Link to Comment fredquimby
fredquimby's picture

I haven't heard ANYTHING about Timmah for a long time. Is he in hiding or something???

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:09 | Link to Comment BobPaulson
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Crashes come when everyone is most complacent, even when everybody knows they come when everyone is most complacent.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:25 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
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Time to get more complacent-er.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:12 | Link to Comment mrktwtch2
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all i know is im long vol..here..its a 5 yr lows..and if it keeps going down i will avrg in a bit more each day..these opportunities doint come that often..

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

But then again, buy this giantic 1.2 point dip on the ES and be happy.  

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:19 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Do they want to get Obama out?  Sure, a good portion do, but not the majority. 

Remember, the banks have GROWN 21%, and corporate profits are at their highest (although waning).....but they are still making money.  The only fear they have is Obama will go "rogue" in the 2nd term freeroll and start becoming more populist....but I doubt that. 

Controlled dissent is better than riots in the streets. Riots in the streets aren't good for the market.  TPTB can't control EVERYTHING.

A Romney presidency will spur on unrest that will make Occupy Wall Street and the London Riots look like a JPM Democratic fundraiser at Morton's.

Plus, Wall St can just wait til 2016, when a Republican gets elected, anyways.  I call it "the Great White Backlash" of 2016, when basically white voters do what the young/minority vote did in 2008 in return for having a black man in office for the last 8 years.

God, voting is SO stupid.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 10:21 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
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BO's Teflon appears to be as strong as St. Reagan's

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:15 | Link to Comment tradewithdave
tradewithdave's picture

There's a plan for that. The Chicago Plan.

www.tradewithdave.com

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 11:34 | Link to Comment tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

nice little gem you dug up there dave

Treasury Department Announces Further Steps to Expedite Wind Down of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/tg1684.aspx

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:20 | Link to Comment spanish inquisition
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What ever the financial institutions translate as "more foam for the runway" is what we are going to get.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:25 | Link to Comment LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

The U.S. Electorate is generally composed of idiots.  They believed the ILLUSION of Obozo in 2008.  They believe the ILLUSION - nominal vs. real - of the markets in 2012.

Attributed to Albert Einstein, though debatable that he ever spoke/wrote the words, is:  Insanity - Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

Every two years the insane idiots line up behind either Democrap or Republiturd, expecting change of results.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:39 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Bottom line is that the Apartheid State of Israel wants Romney because they can easily get the US to fight more wars for them... With an Obama 2nd term, they're not so sure...

This isn't about nukes in Iran (for the ASOI), it's about destroying the largest military in the region (so that the ASOI can continue to be the biggest bully on the block in the region & continue to steal land from the Palestinians without being hassled for it)... This already worked successfull by getting Iraq out of the picture, now Iran is in the crosshairs...

This election [Obama/Romney], wouldn't even be close if there weren't significant influence & money being poured in by wealthy & strategic Israeli interests, once again, doing everything they can to hijack everything that goes on in the United States... In an unprecedented move, Romney has already been in Israel & met with Netanyahu & PUBLICLY declared that he'd do whatever was needed...

~~~

It's likely that Ron Paul supporters are aware of this crosscurrent dynamic... It's likely that Romney supporters are ignorant to this (& instead, simply follow the party line wherever it leads them)... Obama supporters probably don't have a clue about anything (half are still stuck in the 'Obama will pay for my gas & mortgage' paradigm)...

If Ron Paul supporters come to the final conclusion that, conscience or not, it is impossible for Ron Paul to win, they'd be wise to consider the above scenario before either abstaining from voting, or supporting either of the other two candidates... My gut feeling is that more Ron Paul supporters would come down on the side of Obama in that case (but I could be wrong)...

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 10:45 | Link to Comment jtg
jtg's picture

francis_sawyer, anthoer Jew hating troll.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 11:57 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

If having an issue with a state that is in a perpetual state of warmongering, practices "Apartheid", and, though an elaborate spy network, can't keep themselves out of the affairs of every square foot of the planet earth... (without being called on ANY of the aforementioned because of a highly controlled network of banking interests, media coercion & propaganda, political action activists, & disinformation specialists)...

If the label you've chosen for me is equal to everything that I've identified above... Then I stand accused...

~~~

Me?... I'd prefer PEACE, but that doesn't look like it's gonna break out anytime soon...

Me?... I didn't wake up one morning, felt kind of bored, and then arbitrarily decided to become hostile towards a certain clan... Instead ~ over time (especially after understanding the TRUTH about 9/11), I tried to understand what was going on and who were the primary players in the things that plague the world right now... I stubled on the idea that, at present, ME conflict is front & center... I ask myself if there might be a solution to that... My instincts tell me that if Israel would simply STAND DOWN, then we might begin to move in the right direction... But the Apartheid state of Israel won't do that, it wants to make EVERYONE afraid of it's personal boogeyman (& have THEM  foot the bill for it while they're at it)...

So... If you want to test the 'Jew hating troll' status of francis_sawyer, let's try an experiment... STAND DOWN... I think you'd quickly find that I would become allied to that cause...

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:38 | Link to Comment Audacity17
Audacity17's picture

Good job JTG.  We have to speak truth to these morons that want Muslims to have 100% of the Mideast, instead of the 99.9% they already have.  As they teach their children that Jews are descended from pigs, and drink kids' blood etc.  Yea, its the Jews fault.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 20:06 | Link to Comment Mysteerious Roo...
Mysteerious Rooshian Vooman's picture

 

You are not wrong. I don' tknow whether my state will allow for a Ron Paul write-in in November. If it does, then I'll vote Ron Paul. If not, however, I'll vote for O'Bama for precisely the reason you have pointed out, and so will all the RP supporters I know--and I know a lot. (I've been voting & working for RP since 1988. I was his guest at a private recption on the 6th of this month. I am an RP delegate to Tampa.  I know a LOT of Paulistas.) We have talked it over, and we think that it's best to keep Romney out. And secondarily, another four years of  O'Bama might hasten the much-needed reset, by hastening the demise of the whole rotten structure.

 

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 09:58 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

this "fiscal cliff" issue is complete bullshit.............the country has long gone over the cliff.......and no compromise, no action can fix the issues.....only the laws of the universe will get the country back on track.............destruction and then rebirth................like the cells in your body that are destroyed so that new ones can grow........... like wildfires that allow for seedlings to sprout...like hurricanes that cleanse and rebalance natural habitats.... like stellar explosions that fuel the birth of new planets  ........breakdown must occur before growth and expansion continue.......the hubris of mankind....believing they are above the basic rules of how the world works..........only a grand reset, only a crisis that allows the excess of consumption, debt, credit, entitlements to be cleared can allow for the country to return to its roots and allow it to heal.............................

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 10:26 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

The reset is in progress - it's just slow motion. When it's finsihed, the kings of old will be back in control and the peasantry will have clear expectations on what they have to get done. Forever.

Not growth, de-growth.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 10:36 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

de-growth is growth, just of a different paradigm.....one where growth is not led by the expansion of credit and debt, overconsumption and the depletion of all resources.........

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 11:33 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

new economic growth will be Net linked, and not necessarily in physical objects. We could imagine a whole economy based on holograms and holographically built virtual cities and companies. Which produce goods that don't exist until they are 3D printed locally. This whole field can open up a whole new set of industries which will require much less RM usage. Recycling of 3D printed material will be easier to manage, to reconvert those same objects once their life cycle ends into other ones, more modern.

Imagine visiting holographically created cities that give you the same sensation as if you were there physically.

We are heading to a new age of creativity. By force of things; as always, necessity being the mother of invention.  

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 12:45 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I think there were Star Trek episodes like that. And a movie with Keanu Reeves.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 15:05 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

mr. anderson....................

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 21:13 | Link to Comment nah
nah's picture

romney needs a cell phone video of obama beating and robbing a college age kid

.

or else

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