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Will Hurricane Irene Wreck The East Coast?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Update: just as we post this we see the following report from Reuters:

U.S. says Irene could be "big threat" to northeast

 

Powerful Hurricane Irene could pose a "big threat" to the densely populated northeast United States, including New York, as it swings up the eastern seaboard from Saturday on its current forecast track, the top U.S. government hurricane forecaster said on Wednesday.

 

National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read gave the warning as Irene, now a major Category 3 storm with winds of 115 miles per hour, roared through the Bahamas on a path that will take it to the U.S. East Coast by the weekend.

 

As it swept over the southeastern Bahamas, its winds tore off home roofs and knocked out power, authorities reported.

 

Some tourists fled Nassau and other resorts in the low-lying Atlantic archipelago, while others hunkered down in hotels, and cruise lines canceled their Bahamas stops for the next few days.

 

Forecasters see the first hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic season, turning north from Thursday to miss Florida and Georgia and clip North Carolina's Outer Banks region on Saturday afternoon. Irene is then seen taking a coast-hugging track up the U.S. mid-Atlantic and New England coastline.

 

States from the Carolinas northward were on alert and evacuations were already underway in some of North Carolina's most exposed Outer Banks barrier islands, such as Ocracoke.

Earlier today, Hurricane Irene was upgraded by the National Hurricane Center to category 3 as it passed above the Turks and Caicos, preemptively ending the holidays for quite a few Wall Streeters taking a well-deserved break from chasing levered beta. So admitting we know nothing about predicting the weather, we present the following update from Jeff Masters' Weather Underground blog.

First, here is his general update on the storm slowly approaching the Eastern Seaboard:

Powerful Category 3 Hurricane Irene stormed through the Turks and Caicos Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding. On Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where half of the population of these islands live, winds reached a sustained 65 mph at a personal weather station at Pine Cay, and the pressure bottomed out at 989 mb. The eyewall of Irene missed the island, with the center of the storm passing about 60 miles to the southwest. The center of Irene passed about 60 miles to the northwest of Grand Inagua Island, and Category 1 hurricane conditions were probably experienced on that island. Damage in the Turks and Caicos is likely to be much less than the $50 - $200 million wrought by Category 4 Hurricane Ike of 2008, since Irene's eyewall missed populated islands.

 

Monday, Irene hit Puerto Rico as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds, but reached hurricane strength as it emerged into the Atlantic northwest of the capital of San Juan. One drowning death is being reported from the island, and the storm dumped up to 20 inches of rain in some areas. About 11% of the island was still without power this morning, and numerous roads were closed due to flooding and landslides. Irene did an estimated $17 million in damage to agriculture and $2 million to ports in Puerto Rico. Satellite estimates suggest that Irene has brought only 1 - 2 inches of rain to Haiti. With Irene now pulling away from Hispaniola, Haiti can expect only another 1 - 2 inches from the hurricane, and appears to have dodged a major bullet. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches were common across the Dominican Republic, where moderate flooding but no deaths occurred.



Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene. 

 

Track forecast for Irene

 

Continuing dropsonde missions by the NOAA jet have helped to significantly narrow the uncertainty in the 1 - 3 day forecasts from the computer models. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. However, the models still diverge considerably on their 4 - 5 days forecasts, and we don't know if Irene will plow up the mid-Atlantic coast into New Jersey, as the GFDL model is predicting, hit New England between Long Island, NY and Massachusetts, as the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF models are predicting, or miss the U.S. and hit Canada, as the NOGAPS model is predicting.

 

Intensity forecast for Irene
Latest data from the Hurricane Hunters shows that Irene has paused in its intensification cycle. A gap has opened in the eyewall, and the central pressure has remained constant at 956 - 957 mb over the past few hours. However, the hurricane is embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a Category 4 storm sometime in the next two days. Satellite loops show that Irene is well-organized, with excellent upper-level outflow, and impressive spiral banding.

And here is the key update on what is coming to New York:

Irene's impact on the mid-Atlantic and New England 

 

The impact of Irene on the mid-Atlantic and New England is highly uncertain at this point, because we don't know if the core of the storm will miss the coast or not. In general, the heaviest rains will fall along a 100-mile swath just to the west of where the center tracks, and the worst wind and storm surge damage will occur to the east. If the core of Irene stays offshore, the mid-Atlantic and New England may escape with a few hundred million dollars in damage from flooding due to heavy rains and storm surge. If Irene hits Long Island or Southeast Massachusetts, the storm has the potential to be a $10 billion disaster. Irene is one of those rare storms that has the potential to make landfall in New England as a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. It is difficult for a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane crossing north of North Carolina to maintain that intensity, because wind shear rapidly increases and ocean temperatures plunge below the 26°C (79°F) level that can support a hurricane. We do expect wind shear to rapidly increase to a high 30 - 50 knots once Irene pushes north of Delaware, which should knock the storm down by at least 15 - 30 mph before it reaches New England. However, this year sea surface temperatures 1 - 3°F warmer than average extend along the East Coast from North Carolina to New York. Waters of at least 26°C extend all the way to Southern New Jersey, which will make it easier for Irene to maintain its strength much farther to the north than a hurricane usually can. During the month of July, ocean temperature off the mid-Atlantic coast (35°N - 40°N, 75°W - 70°W) averaged 2.6°F (1.45°C) above average, the second highest July ocean temperatures since record keeping began over a century ago (the record was 3.8°F above average, set in 2010.) These warm ocean temperatures will also make Irene a much wetter hurricane than is typical, since much more water vapor can evaporate into the air from record-warm ocean surfaces. The latest precipitation forecast from NOAA's Hydrological prediction center shows that Irene could dump over 8 inches of rain over coastal New England.

Well, if the expert says he has no idea what is going to happen we could keep our mouth shut, or pull a Dick Bove and claim that the storm will be hugely beneficial for the Tri-State area, knowing absolutely nothing about anything, while advising anyone dumb enough to listen that selling Kansas Torando insurance is the guaranteed to make one wealthy beyond their wildest dreams.

 

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Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:37 | 1595530 Ausperity
Ausperity's picture

Irene = Keynesian wet dream

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:39 | 1595547 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Oil and Corexit raining over NYC.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:44 | 1595583 anynonmous
anynonmous's picture

I am surprised Tyler would not have drawn on his inhouse expertise, weathergeek Bruce K for the forecast and disastermonger  GW for the aftermath

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:46 | 1595880 Canaduh
Canaduh's picture

Interesting tidbit- remember that plane crash that killed 12 in northern Canada last week?

"Right in the middle of a joint agency simulated disaster designed to prepare government and military agencies to prepare for an air crash in the Arctic, tragedy struck Saturday.

The First Air civilian charter, a Boeing 737 that crashed around 12:50 p.m. near the Resolute Bay airport, went down at what might arguably be called the region’s most prepared moment, according to Capt. Andrew Hennessy, a spokesperson for Operation Nanook — the largest of three annual joint operations aimed at preparedness.

“We’re here to improve our capabilities to operate in the Arctic … The operation was going to involve an air disaster scenario that would have seen us responding to an aircraft going down in the Arctic, which, unfortunately, is exactly what played out today,” Hennessy said. “The aircraft was not involved in the exercise – this was a civilian charter.”"

 

 

The Governor General was in the area, and the Prime Minister was scheduled to be there the next day.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 17:08 | 1596688 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Surfs Up!

and..

Serfs Down!!

 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 19:09 | 1597136 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

Irene is my aunt's name, and if this storm wiped the Northeast off the map, it'd be richly deserved IMHO:

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2011/08/gods-judgment-nears.html

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2010/05/on-this-memorial-day.html

I'm so sick of this arrogant, money-loving BS around me.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 18:32 | 1596975 Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

cui bono?
in other words, who was on board the plane?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:43 | 1596118 marsdefIAnCe
marsdefIAnCe's picture

we got the gulf stream on a crawl and a permanent high pressure zone over the gulf

 

corexit & craig venter's synthetic life is moderately contained

 

barry bin laden's got this, if you ignore his slip up letting synthetic bacteriophages out of the lab

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:41 | 1595563 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

Great, another excuse for Mr Hopey-Changey. "The awful economy is because of the summer earthquakes and hurricanes"

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:21 | 1596030 pupton
pupton's picture

"...we've had a run of bad luck."  I'd say he will have to add these natural disasters to his excuse arsenal.  Now he just needs to find a way to blame his enemies (Tea Party, Republicans, Rush Limbaugh, Jesus, etc.) for this run of bad luck.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 19:57 | 1597388 knukles
knukles's picture

Temporary, transitory, kinda not so really bad, just another blip, supply chain disruption, no radiation leaked, confidence'll bounce back, never underestimate the power of the totally bankrupt broke Amerikan consumer, Krugman says another Alien Invasion'll take care of it and the PPT is alive and well up Jackson's Hole, so we got you covered, never mind, move along nothing to see here, shut the fuck up and go about your business serf or you'll be officially deemed a turrderist and sent off to a FrEeMeAand YouCamp.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:41 | 1595564 asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

Indeed, Krugman is chaining himself to the beach as we speak so he can get a full frontal view to masturbate to.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:48 | 1595601 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Hardly...  He will run away like the coward that he is.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:05 | 1595696 flacon
flacon's picture

You're right, Keynesian stimulus only works when it's the other person's property and savings that gets destroyed. 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:13 | 1595717 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

 

 

Krugman claims that a Cat 5 hurricane brushing along the entire eastern seaboard (including hitting NYC), a 9.8 earthquake centered in Washington D.C. or New York City and 50,000,000 spacecraft invasion of earth by extremely hostile extraterrestrials are the trifecta of utopian events needed to get the economy going again.

Failing this, he is urgently lobbying the U.S. and a few foreign governments for an 'Archduke Franz Ferdinand' or 'invasion of Poland' moment.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:07 | 1595947 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

Krugman The Barbarian -Keynesians Of Doom

http://youtu.be/0o9yLcJqOw8

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:20 | 1596023 zenbones
zenbones's picture

How do we know there aren't alien spacecraft in the hurricane clouds?  You're on to something Paulie!!!  Economic recovery here we come!  Who needs fundamentals when you have aliens.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 17:51 | 1596871 onthesquare
onthesquare's picture

God may be a terrorist

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:41 | 1596112 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Krugman has no idea about that which he speaks. Wealth is not created from destruction, it is only misallocated from more productive uses. The economic value of replacing something that was destroyed is a hinderance to economic growth. Bastiat explained this very simply and eloquently with his Parable of the broken window.

"Society loses the value of things which are uselessly destroyed"

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:31 | 1595822 Mactheknife
Mactheknife's picture

Hopefully he gets hit with a flying Volvo.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 19:02 | 1597116 Milestones
Milestones's picture

Replying to your handle--Ever heard Ella's version done in Berlin in 1958? Blows the lyrics half way in front of 12,000 people. Pure magic.    Milestones

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:05 | 1595691 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

OBAMA MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO CREATE JOBS BUT IRENE WILL!!

IRENE FOR PRESIDENT!!!

 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:10 | 1595726 Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

This is just another completely fabricated story, planted on ZH. I'll believe it when I have rain and debris hitting me about the head and shoulders.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:15 | 1595754 Mactheknife
Mactheknife's picture

Surfs up...bitchez!!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:04 | 1595959 caerus
caerus's picture

damn beat me to it

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:34 | 1595833 Two Towers AU AG
Two Towers AU AG's picture

You stole my thoughts.. you ARE from amongst the little green people... who can read thoughts..and are planning an invasion on earth to boost the global economy. but you aint getting my gold or my precious marbles. :) :) :)

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:02 | 1595949 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Don't worry, you get to keep your gold. I'm only here for the anal probings.

 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:28 | 1595807 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You are correct, sir.

General rule of thumb for hurricanes:

If they go up the US east coast, they are stimulative.

If they curl around Florida to the west of Florida and into the Gulf, the oil platforms get precautionary evacuated, oil production stops and it is decidedly not stimulative.

So destroy the east coast is good.  Destroy the Gulf coast is bad.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:01 | 1595942 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

betting Krugman has a funny feeling in his pants.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:27 | 1596049 trav7777
trav7777's picture

uh, Durden, there is more to the East Coast than your motherfuckin beloved NYC

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:47 | 1596132 I did it by Occident
I did it by Occident's picture

What, no mention of Krugman and his invading aliens/earthquakes and now hurricanes?  Irene is right up Krugman's 'broken window' alley. 

 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:37 | 1595531 putbuyer
putbuyer's picture

My mother is worried about her tomato plants

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:37 | 1595534 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

"underground weather blog"?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:06 | 1595948 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

FOX NEWS HEADLINES:

 

DASTARDLY BLOG WHERE 'THE WEATHERMEN' RETIRED TO THREATENS TERROR ATTACK.

 

No really.. there was a government response: $2.1 billion for law enforcement, train drivers, tribe members (!) to get prepared.

 

http://www.dhs.gov/ynews/releases/20110823-napolitano-preparedness-grant...

 

 

That list is mighty tasty... apply now! Cheeeeeese! Anonymous are attacking BART, have $200 million! [Transit Security Grant Program (TSGP)—more than $200 million to owners and operators of transit systems to protect critical surface transportation from acts of terrorism and increase the resilience of transit infrastructure.]

 

  • State Homeland Security Program (SHSP)—more than $526 million to support the implementation of state homeland security strategies to build and strengthen preparedness capabilities at all levels. The 9/11 Act requires states to dedicate 25 percent of SHSP appropriated funds to law enforcement terrorism prevention-oriented planning, organization, training, exercise and equipment activities.
  • Urban Areas Security Initiative (UASI)—more than $662 million to enhance regional preparedness capabilities in 31 high-threat, high-density urban areas. In order to focus limited resources to mitigate and respond to evolving threats, the 11 highest risk areas (Tier 1) were eligible for more than $540 million, while the remaining 20 urban areas, designated Tier II were eligible for more than $121 million. The 9/11 Act requires states to dedicate 25 percent of UASI appropriated funds to law enforcement terrorism prevention-oriented activities.
  • Operation Stonegarden (OPSG)—more than $54 million to enhance cooperation and coordination among local, tribal, territorial, state, and federal law enforcement agencies to secure the United States land and maritime borders.
  • Metropolitan Medical Response System (MMRS)—more than $34 million, to enhance and sustain comprehensive regional mass casualty incident response and preparedness capabilities, divided evenly among 124 MMRS jurisdictions.
  • Citizen Corps Program (CCP)—more than $9 million to engage citizens in community preparedness, planning, mitigation, response and recovery activities.

 

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4eSrpb4SDU

 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:24 | 1596038 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

The 9/11 Act requires states to dedicate 25 percent of UASI appropriated funds to law enforcement terrorism prevention-oriented activities.

Well, this explains lots of the stupidity I've seen lately. Just last week after work, I saw over 50 of the city's finest forming up into squads in a parking lot. I had to stop and wonder just what size of an incident they believed they were practicing for.

Also, I wonder, do the "papers please" checkpoints count as terrorism prevention, or are those still all funded by DOT grants? (which btw, are an easy way for those nearing retirement to pad their base pay in order to increase their pensions)

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:52 | 1597809 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I am henceforth declaring Hurricane Irene a 'terrorist,' and am issuing a capture or kill standing order regarding her.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:37 | 1595535 Gamblor
Gamblor's picture

Come on Irene.  I swear I won't leave.  At this moment, you mean everything...

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:17 | 1595764 Agent P
Agent P's picture

That's the Asian version of the song.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:23 | 1596035 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

I think that version goes "Come on Irene I swear I won't reave"

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:38 | 1595536 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Irene is a Bitch

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:38 | 1595538 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Spreads opening up on the Irene index counter. 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:38 | 1595540 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

Could bring a lot of death and destruction.  Krugman is probably stroking it furiously at the thought.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:52 | 1595618 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Hopefully it plows right into his house mid-stroke.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:38 | 1595543 TzaristBondHolder
TzaristBondHolder's picture

First there is an Earthquake.  Now a hurricane.  Then HAARP

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:44 | 1595578 DeadFinks
DeadFinks's picture

DC needs a bigger shakedown.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 19:14 | 1597179 Milestones
Milestones's picture

I'd settle for Denniger's wish for a 30 foot wall of water in D.C.       Milestones

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:50 | 1595613 Ausperity
Ausperity's picture

It goes like this: earthquakes, hurricanes, HAARP, ELENIN, Solar flares, Ron Paul, Collapse, Bluebeam, victory, ends with gold standard and one world government.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:13 | 1595744 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

That was a great list till I saw old RP's name in there.

Pfffffffffttttt...... no earth mover/shaker, Dr.P.

I hope everyone stays well (even the banksters). Nature is like a woman scorned and WV, with it's fracking and table top mining and mountain destruction, must have made her angry. Is here name Irene?

Maybe.

Vivek

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/08/24/precursor-03-bottom-falling-out-still-still-and-a-gander/

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:21 | 1595781 Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

gold standard and one world government = oxymoron

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:21 | 1596028 Ausperity
Ausperity's picture

Can you expand upon that idea for me?  I don't see how the two are diametrically opposed.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:38 | 1595544 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

No way we'd be so lucky as to have it wreck the east coast.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:39 | 1595545 Ecoman11
Ecoman11's picture

Irene is about to get into the hot water zone http://i53.tinypic.com/eve4c4.png

Next question, what happens to all those foreclosed beachfront homes if they get destroyed?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:54 | 1595629 Ausperity
Ausperity's picture

Who could have figured that would God pitch in with the PPT?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:14 | 1595748 fyrebird
fyrebird's picture

What happens? Why, then you collect on the property insurance at par. No housing crisis around here, no sir.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:52 | 1596351 Peter_Griffin
Peter_Griffin's picture

Well, we just may have to nationalize a few more insurance companies to make sure the bankers can drain taxpayers completely dry.  Non-foreclosed homes wont be covered.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:39 | 1595549 Central Wanker
Central Wanker's picture

Krugman must be happy...

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:39 | 1595550 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

Blame everything on Irene....enough breathing space till next snow

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:01 | 1595669 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

Get long , shingles & tar paper.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:39 | 1595551 SheepHerder
SheepHerder's picture

I say we send Geithner and Blankfein to do some research on its path in a small cap size boat.  Don't forget Bernanke since he has some expereince about "flooding" and "liquidity."

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:39 | 1595552 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

 

This depends on on the Bernank announcing QE3, the earthquake was a warning. If its announced this Friday, the storm will be upgrade to a category 5 and will centre in on 33 Liberty, Washington D.C.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:39 | 1595553 TzaristBondHolder
TzaristBondHolder's picture

will it hit the jacksons Hole?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:40 | 1595555 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Time to end the fundraising parties on Martha's Vineyard...

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:40 | 1595557 anony
anony's picture

Goodnight, Irene. c u in my dreams....

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:41 | 1595561 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Obama will soon have another Bad Luck excuse for Fridays numbers.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:41 | 1595565 2DollarBill
2DollarBill's picture

It's still too far away to determine where it could hit...if NC or NYC are in play.  If the Bermuda High moves west, Irene could end up in SC.  Irene is not an easy storm to follow.  A few days ago, Miami was suppose to get hit.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:41 | 1595566 mr. mirbach
mr. mirbach's picture

Future headline from WSJ: "Hurricane Irene Causes Massive Stock Market Crash"

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:43 | 1595576 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Good call. 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:43 | 1595574 Dreadker
Dreadker's picture

Sweet!  An earthquake, then a hurricane... Now all I need is a tornado, tsunami and a volcanic eruption and i'll have collected the whole "disasters that stimulate growth" set! ;-)

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:47 | 1595591 Dr. Hannibal Lecter
Dr. Hannibal Lecter's picture

Got Locusts?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:59 | 1595655 Dreadker
Dreadker's picture

Nah, thats part of the biblical set - not interested in that one lol

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 00:25 | 1598150 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Where's yer mudslide, firestorm & flash flood?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:36 | 1595847 Two Towers AU AG
Two Towers AU AG's picture

ZOMBIES?????

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:21 | 1596024 Smiley
Smiley's picture

See Detroit for sneak preview...

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:44 | 1595577 Joshua Falken
Joshua Falken's picture

This storm is not expected to make landfall

 

You Americans really should listen to your own scientists - they really are rather good

 

The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies at the Space Science and Engineering Center  of the University of Wisconsin-Madison

has a marvelous tropical cyclone monitor 

 

see http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=09L&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:49 | 1595606 fyrebird
fyrebird's picture

If the storm made landfall it would die. These things feed on hot water. Skirting the coast off shore to stay spun up all the while battering the shoreward communities for 3 days is pretty much -- er well -- a perfect storm.

And yes I am a scientist, though not that kind.

 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:32 | 1595829 Kid Neutron
Kid Neutron's picture

After 22 years in South FL and many hurricanes - Jeff Masters is practically the only person I listen to when it comes to tropical storms. University of Wisconsin - Madison does have a spectacular veterinarian program. They helped with many pets and livestock when I lived up there. 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:47 | 1595889 Cui Bono
Cui Bono's picture

Stop Playing Games Joshua..... Holy shit that was a whopper....... bwaaaaaaa CB

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:19 | 1596021 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

It's pointing directly to an upper east coast hit.  

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:44 | 1595579 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Timing is everything...It will be a direct hit to Charlotte, NC, how appropriate.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:55 | 1595637 citta vritti
citta vritti's picture

and BAC will be an official disaster area. what a cover for funneling funds

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:04 | 1595690 perchprism
perchprism's picture

 

Hey, I have a sister named Charlotte!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:46 | 1595587 Dr. Hannibal Lecter
Dr. Hannibal Lecter's picture

"Sales from materials used in reapirs after the mayhem will help boost retail sales.  It will create jobs.  Hope for a really bad storm."

So sayeth Paul Krugman.

 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:46 | 1595588 fyrebird
fyrebird's picture

Bullish for QE3

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:46 | 1595590 Paul Bogdanich
Paul Bogdanich's picture

We wn't know anything until we see how it is tracking on Friday.  The models whil in general agreement on the track vary quite a bit in forward velocity.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:48 | 1595597 anony
anony's picture

Foget hurricanes, markets, PMs, the FED, 100x leverage,  & Jacksons Hole.  The real crisis is an unhappy girlfriend:

http://www.mediaite.com/online/report-george-soros-made-his-28-year-old-ex-girlfriend-sit-at-the-children%E2%80%99s-table/

 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:49 | 1595608 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Very bullish for Cocoa Beach surfing.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:53 | 1595624 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

Watch it here live! http://www.twopalms.com/

...until this site crashes like Zerohedge on a Rule 48 day!  Ha.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:55 | 1595634 Confused
Confused's picture

Finally, some summer swell on the east coast.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:36 | 1595849 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

I know , it's rare. Which is why I've taken to kite surfing. Lots and lots of perfect days for that down here...and tons of perfect spots.

The two very best are:

1) the Flats in the Florida Keys
2) Key Biscayne, in Miami.

Both are absolutely perfect kite surfing spots.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:50 | 1595614 New American Re...
New American Revolution's picture

WoW!   Between a hurricane and the massive destruction of the recent earthquake do I smell recovery stimulus here?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:52 | 1595615 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

It won't wreck the east coast, but it will seem that way in the news coverage.   Forecast track has been sliding eastward and I think it will not come ashore south of NY and probably as a CAT 1. There will be a blustery day in the Outer Banks, but not a direct hit. This won't be worse than a big northeast blizzard.

It will, however, wreck the POTUS' vacation.  It might wreck my Labor Day Bahamas cruise plans ashore, but sea days are not so bad. 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:55 | 1597821 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

 


 

It won't wreck the east coast, but it will seem that way in the news coverage. 

You mean we have 4 days of idiotic news personalities, intentionally standing in between buildings, in order to capitalize on the wind tunnel affect, posturing to make for dramatic teeeeveeee, to look forward to?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:53 | 1595623 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Cowabunga!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:06 | 1595626 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Ugh.   I am so not looking forward to dealing with this.  I have other shit to do and was certainly not planning on defending life/limb/property of myself/friends/family this weekend.  I've been through '85 (on a boat) and '91 in New England.  Neither was all that bad wind-wise but the flooding was a bitch.  And of course no one wants another '38...(except Krugman).

If you're on a part of the east coast that sticks out into the ocean the worst hurricane landfalls  tend to be just south and inland as the counter-clockwise storm drives wind and water up towards you.  Best case is the thing goes east out to sea as early as possible and there will be a better chance that the wind will hit you coming off the land first.

So far it certainly has the potential to be a whopper. 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 16:57 | 1596633 NumNutt
NumNutt's picture

You read my thoughts, not what I had planned on dealing with this weekend. My house is inland far enough, and is high enough not to worry about (besides it belongs to the bank any way at this point so if the roof vanishes, party at my place). My concern is my large sail boat on the bay outside baltimore. I might spend the storm onboard defending it from wind and debris, and other boats that break loose......better bring lots of beer....

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:54 | 1595627 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

If Irene stays on track it will miss the Wall Street banks. Good thing, they would never see it comin’.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:56 | 1595631 MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

"Hurricane Irene Causes Massive Stock Market Crash"

"No way we'd be so lucky as to have it wreck the east coast."

=====================

I hope it wrecks all your houses sick bitchez!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:02 | 1595680 djsmps
djsmps's picture

How long will the POTUS be vacationing on Martha's Vineyard?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:27 | 1595803 DUNTHAT
DUNTHAT's picture

Wouldn't it be a stroke of divine justice for IRENE to nail Martha's Vineyard?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 17:16 | 1596724 NumNutt
NumNutt's picture

Or Air force one vanishes over the atlantic ocean on the return trip to washington, all onboard missing..........

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:04 | 1595687 GD
GD's picture

11 Wall Street, Irene landfall on Monday, at the opening..

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:06 | 1595707 r101958
r101958's picture

For all you chartaholics out there.......just for schmidts and giggles. Google 'Hurricane Katrina Track' and compare.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:22 | 1595785 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

wow, it did pull an Allen Iverson north of the Bahamas, didn't it?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Katrina_2005_track.png

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:12 | 1595993 caerus
caerus's picture

it went to turkey?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:09 | 1595718 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

Fear mongering.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:11 | 1595724 sabra1
sabra1's picture

nothing worse than the wind coming from janet napalotanos butt! catagory 1 thru 5 burritos!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:10 | 1595727 gunsmoke011
gunsmoke011's picture

Not To Worry -- HAARP has an eye on it. It will be just like all of the otehr stroms for the past 5 years -- come barreling across the Atlantic and then just before it hits the U.S. - it runs into "Something" and makes a hard right and churns harmlessly back out to Sea.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:38 | 1595818 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Do you mean "Something" like the Gulf Stream warm water current, or did you mean "Something" like the prevailing West-to-East wind/weather patterns coming off the US?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:47 | 1595890 gunsmoke011
gunsmoke011's picture

Yes - Of Course - that is why the Air Force spent Tens of Billions to create a Top Secret Program - to just let it sit up there in Alaska and do nothing. until some Dumb Ass tried to use it once and it resulted in this little thunderstorm called Katrina - which there was a documentary (Aird On History Channel)  in which people involved in the project actually admitted to - and said they used it to divert Katrina away from Houston -- Oil  And Oil Refineries You Know.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:01 | 1595945 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Was it down for maintenance with hurricanes Rita and Ike?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:22 | 1596271 A tumor named Marla
A tumor named Marla's picture

You mean the Ancient Aliens/Pawshop/2012 channel?  Not exactly a source I trust.....

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:14 | 1595750 kito
kito's picture

FISCAL STIMULUS!!! FISCAL STIMULUS!!! FISCAL STIMULUS!!! FISCAL STIMULUS!!! FISCAL STIMULUS!!!

 

FROM THE WHITE HOUSE:

IN RESPONSE TO THIS POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING AND CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE, YOUR CARING AND COMPASSIONATE PRESIDENT OBAMA IS ACTING SWIFTLY TO ENSURE THE SAFETY OF ALL GOOD AMERICANS AND WILL CALL FOR 300 BILLION DOLLARS TO BE IMMEDIATELY RELEASED FROM THE FEDERAL EMERGENCY FISCAL STIMULATION FUND INTO THE EAST COAST REGION. THIS WILL HELP REBUILD OUR GREAT EASTERN SEABOARD REGION, ALLOWING GOOD FOLKS TO GET TO WORK, WHILE CONTINUING TO ALLOW FOR THE PROCUREMENT OF EMERGENCY SHELTER, CLOTHING, IPODS, WALMART GIFT CARDS, AND SUCH OTHER ITEMS THAT WILL ALLOW THE ECONOMIES OF THE REGION TO RECOVER FROM THIS POTENTIALLY CALAMITOUS SITUATION. IN THE EVENT THE HURRICANE PASSES WITHOUT INCIDENT, STATES HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO RETAIN THE MONEY IN A TRUST FUND, IN THE FORM OF TREASURIES, IN PREPARATION FOR A VERY ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:24 | 1596041 pupton
pupton's picture

"Shovel ready" jobs filling sandbags?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:16 | 1595759 fyrebird
fyrebird's picture

I forcast that the BLS and Fed will use Irene to explain away any bad numbers for the next few reports.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:17 | 1595761 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

On the disaster meme, two fresh Fukushima stories: TEPCO had predicted a tsunami this big in 2008 but didn't tell anyone, and is attempting a new cooling water approach for Unit 3 as they're creating so much high level contamination with their current approach.

TEPCO predicted 10m tsunami before disaster

Japan's nuclear regulator says the operator of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant predicted an over 10-meter-high tsunami in 2008, but failed to report its prediction to the government until just before the March 11th disaster.

A spokesperson for the government's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency told reporters on Wednesday that the Tokyo Electric Power Company, or TEPCO, reported the prediction to the agency on March 7th.

TEPCO says it made the estimation in 2008 when calculating the maximum tsunami height in the event of a very powerful earthquake near the plant.

The maximum possible wave height originally assumed by TEPCO when it designed the plant was 5.7 meters.

The agency says it ordered the company to submit a detailed report as quickly as it could and suggested the need to reform the facilities when the company provided the prediction.

The agency's official in charge of nuclear disasters, Yoshinori Moriyama, says it takes seriously its failure to fully predict the possibility of a major tsunami before the disaster.

TEPCO says it didn't mean to disclose the assessment since it was a tentative calculation for research purposes based on a simulation.

Wednesday, August 24, 2011 20:07 +0900 (JST)

TEPCO to directly pour water to No.3 reactor fuel

Tokyo Electric Power Company will try a new process to cool down the No.3 reactor at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant by injecting water directly onto the facility's fuel starting on Friday.

The utility has been pouring 7 tons of water from outside the No.3 reactor every hour.

But this process has been producing a massive amount of high-level radioactive water.

TEPCO said on Monday that injecting cooling water through pipes situated above the fuel would be a more efficient operation.

The utility hopes this new process will reduce the amount of radioactive water produced.

The operator says it will check the effectiveness of the new system by monitoring the temperature levels.

Wednesday, August 24, 2011 07:04 +0900 (JST)

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:21 | 1595775 ThirdCoastSurfer
ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

Hurricanes are nothing to play with, but where is the line between reasonable caution and panic pandering? Is it better to prepare for the worst case scenario when the odds are decidedly against it, or to wait until something unexpected occurs?

To me, this event is nothing more than the MSM using THE POTENTIAL of a catastrophic event to fill air and print and send the panic'd villagers to the stores to squeeze whatever drops of GDP from wherever it can be found. Hurry, hurry, hurry, stock up, board up and run for fear. 

The reason is because a cold front will be approaching the NE that is due to arrive on Saturday.

So, unless Irene speeds up enough to arrive before the front she will certainly be pushed offshore; but, for some strange reason, the focus is solely on the tracking models which cannot deduce the advance of a front until such time as it actually becomes statistically relevant.   This is why, if you follow the progress of the spaghetti models, they continue to slowly push the storm farther off shore. 

Where in the past forecasters would include surface models of a fronts potential interaction with a storm the vast majority now may only show the existing highs that act to block a storm. Why is this?

If I, a total novice can show you proof of an advancing front, why would almost all the so called experts exclude it?

 http://www.accuweather.com/maps-surface.asp

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:03 | 1595955 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

One of the local weathermen said the same thing - unless something happens with the speed of Irene or the speed of the front, this should be blown out to sea before NJ, or, if the timing is perfect - then it's absolute disaster and would make a perfect storm look like a walk in the park

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:24 | 1595776 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

 

 

I can see the future headlines from Reuters and Associated Press (and republished by subscribing newspapers) now:

 

Incredibly high joblessness, hot inflation, massive U.S. deficit spending, shrinking middle class, very anemic housing sales and retail activity for the last 3.5 years due to soon-to-hit Hurricane Irene, says Joe LaVorgna.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:26 | 1595797 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Huge upswing of storm items bought by way of credit card debt coming. Just add it to the total so far, since nobody gives a shit if it gets paid back or not! Business as usual!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:28 | 1595811 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Where are America's Fuckshimas?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:37 | 1595853 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

It will be just another excuse on the shitty jobs reports. Oh, we lost more jobs due to Irene. That is why BoA cut so many jobs.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:38 | 1595854 Goldtoothchimp09
Goldtoothchimp09's picture

Hopefully mother nature is just warming up her aggression on DC and NYC - how about a few bigger earthquakes and then DC gets flooded out by Irene and all the DC folks get infected with some kind of killer amoeba and then the area gets devastated by a deluge of west nile carrying mosquitoes!!  That fate would be too kind to DC.  Hopefully something worse will transpire.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:38 | 1595856 Goldtoothchimp09
Goldtoothchimp09's picture

..

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:46 | 1595881 Negro Primero
Negro Primero's picture

...great track-map from Stormpulse:

http://www.stormpulse.com/

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:48 | 1595893 silver surfer
silver surfer's picture

Expect more disaster capitalism, rapid privatization, government deregulation, deep cuts in sosial spending all along the east coast ! All made possible by Friedmanit fuckers like Krugman advocating the neoliberal shock doctrine and the rape of the local community using his liberal Keynesian disguise. Disgusting it is!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:49 | 1595894 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...you know what this means? Surf's up ...Bitchez. lol http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bg1bk8JhlBU&feature=related

...don't you know about the Bird? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uj0GtRI4Ulo

P.S.  Tiny Tim may be headed for the Outer Banks. lol http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZ3cLJ7FGq4

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:49 | 1595896 adr
adr's picture

I like how this is the first hurricane of the Atlantic season but it is nmaed Irene!!!! Since all the climatologists were predicting increased levels o huricanes after Katrina, and greater intensity, but the hurricanes never came, they have been naming thundestorms.

The climate forcasters would still want you to believe that last year was one of the most active on record. I remember in June of last year they named a storm with sustained 40mph winds.

Fk we had a thunderstorm last night with 60mph winds. I named it Jennifer and it was quite a bitch.

ps If Irene hits NYC can we say Obama sent the hurricane because he hates rich people? Or maybe jews

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:12 | 1595994 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

Everyone knows hurricanes are racist.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 13:59 | 1595909 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Step aside Orkin, Irene will take the lead in rat n roach control efforts this weekend in the tri-state region. Perhaps the Hamptons and Martha's Vinyard will receive a long overdue scrubbing of their weekender and holiday rif raff.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:10 | 1595982 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

they'll live.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:15 | 1596003 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...and to think, Peru started out the year with Krugman's Mother Ship Connection. lol http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4mAnhlgEkrY&feature=player_detailpage

Funky http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PR-m-QDDKPI

Dutch will make some ''Sinse'' outa this. lol http://www.youtube.com/user/dutchsinse?blend=1&ob=5

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:09 | 1595973 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

for you young'uns,

there is plenty of information still available on the Internet

about the hurricane (unnamed) of 1938 ...

which plowed into Westhampton Beach as a category 5 and a 30-foot storm surge,

then tracked up the Connecticutt River.....

 

its interesting reading ....

 

"Daddy my barometer is broken!!!!"

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:09 | 1595977 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

Many of these simply continue to track north turning more eastward.  It'll probably just head out to sea brining some nice rain to the coastal plains of NC...  AND THEN IT WILL TURN VIOLENTLY WEST STRIKING A DIRECT HIT ON DC!

Our government needs and enema and someone knows right where to stick the hose.

 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:11 | 1595988 parch702
parch702's picture

It's still 4 days away from Philly (think S. Jersey shore homes), and already its track is moving eastward, away from the coast. If it doesn't move far enough though a 6' tidal surge will cost hundreds of thousands in damage. Batten down the hatches and good luck. Hopefully, it's not Good Night Irene!! 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:14 | 1595997 krypplephite
krypplephite's picture

Anthropogenic-HAARP-collider-poleshift-solarflare...

 

RUUUUN BITCHEZ!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:48 | 1596140 crzyhun
crzyhun's picture

Man the life boats brothers and sisters!!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:58 | 1596180 WallStreetClass...
WallStreetClassAction.com's picture

URGENT! STANDARD AND POOR'S DOWNGRADE IRENE FROM CAT2 TO BITCHSTORM WITH ATTITUDE!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:18 | 1596254 sheeple2012
sheeple2012's picture

Hoping for landfall right around East Hampstein, with 20 ft. storm surge wiping out bankster summer homes

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 16:34 | 1596480 MobBarley
MobBarley's picture

I predict a direct hit on Washington DC knocking over the already damaged Washington Monument.

 

At least, that's what I'm visualizing right now in super TriMAX Techno3D Sensurround Augmented Reality++

Barley-Vision.

It might be that subconsciously I want that to happen.

It might be some kind of symbolic thing.

It might have to do with some kind of teen age angst about phallic objects.

It might be my Un-Fascist Anti-Communist disloyalty manifesting something like an Al Gore allusion.

Or it might be I've listened to Vicarious by Tool too many times.

Whatever it is, it's gonna ROCK! \m/. last friday night .\m/

 

 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 17:09 | 1596694 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

This Hurrican is going to his new york as a category 3 or larger.  And I think they won't be ready for the tropical rain that will dump inches of rain onto the states.  They will be swamped to be sure.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 17:09 | 1596695 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

This Hurrican is going to his new york as a category 3 or larger.  And I think they won't be ready for the tropical rain that will dump inches of rain onto the states.  They will be swamped to be sure.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:12 | 1597868 Jason_1sandal
Jason_1sandal's picture

OT

Obama Administration announces earthquake came from a little know geological structure, the Bush Fault. USGS to make official name “Bush’s Fault Earthquake.”

This is a major geological fault…but we understand it will be fixed come January, 2013.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!