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Will They Hold Hands?
Via Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
The only real question remains, is whether Merkel and Sarkozy will hold hands to add emphasis to their "we saved the world" announcement. We will get an announcement and it will sound positive. Unless they did a lot of work in the past 24 hours, it seems unlikely that any details will come out. We will hear about grand plans to leverage EFSF, how it has more than enough money to accomplish its goal (of pushing default to next year) and how countries are committed to making it work, and how bank recapitalizations will be done to ensure the safety and soundness of the Eurozone banks, and how with private sector involvement, not only will Greece have the opportunity to grow its way out of the crisis, but other countries too will be given the chance to grow and be successful - austerity is now a dirty word.
There will be no mention of how the countries will grow, and at whose expense the growth will come. The banks won't be forced to dilute themselves, so they will go down the path of massive US Asset sales (causing QE3). The Greek debt negotiations will flounder because the banks don't really want to take a haircut, so whatever occurs will be dramatically watered down from what is being discussed - though on the bright side the EU leaders don't understand enough about finance to figure out just how watered down the final PSI is.
Italy seems more likely to find hidden holes in their budget than any real progress. The EFSF is unlikely to receive strong ratings, and isn't going to trade at such a miraculously tight level, that the costs are going to be very high to use it, and will be paid for by Germany and France.
The IMF and Germany are going to want so many restrictions, the only jobs created will be for TROIKA inspectors and summit travel planners.
China and Brazil don't seem to be in a rush to put money behind their promises, and they don't even seem that eager to make promises.
Stocks, once again, seem to be reacting more favorably to the headlines, than credit, but everywhere the tone seems to be mildly positive. Earnings have seemed mixed. What is surprising to me is the damage that has been inflicted on some of the darlings of the market - Amazon, Netflix, and First Solar in particular. Not as well known, but possibly more relevant to the markets is the thrashing MF Global took yesterday, and that was from already depressed levels. Stocks as a whole seem overbought here, the short interest is declining, most investors now seem more bullish, and they have been right, but once we get something that even resembles a plan, I think the markets will have to digest the implications and it won't be as rosy as people are current pricing in.
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Markets officially gone full retard..IWM gonna gap up 2%
I fully expect PMs to dive after the announcement and then to head up again after the honeymoon is over and people realize that nothing has been fixed.
www.pmbug.com
PM's are just heading for a ramp job before being crashed to smithereens on options expirey.
Probably have a huge euro is so fucked thing in the background with a WE FIXED it bullshit parade to go along with the smash down.
After that doesn't work. They'll then go full retard trying to hype the shit out of everything. Still thinking that people are more interested in keeping up with misportrayed joneses than in destroying everything. As people have pointed out the only way the system works is for new debt to be continually created and people are just not letting the system work. Instead they are strangling it like a chicken and trying to fry it up for dinner. Gold will be back down to 1640 by first of the month.
Watching EEM also
Seems as though someone leaked the prepared speech to "bloggers" beforehand...
Extremely vague sounding 'plan' will be announced then rumors will be planted, the 'market' will act baffled and move sideways until another 'crises' comes along which will divert attention and give another opportunity for more management perception. Am I close?
Best case scenario priced in....so now what?
Theres a reason for all the delays, thats 'sell the news'.
The death of free market capitalism, Dog...at the hands of bankers and politicians...to groups of gigantic crooks and losers.
Fabulous!
Saw Peter Tchir yesternight in Bloomberg, great interview!
A link to the interview: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78907368/
If we see some tongue between the two, I'm going to barf.
No fucking way. I got dibs on Angie.
She may force Sarko and Berlusconi to do a threesome with her. Having her way with the boys
Here's a dramatic scene of the 2 trying desperately to make the IMF whole on this deal at the local discotek.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tiDqDTeeGnc&feature=related
I always enjoy Tchir's comments...very thoughtful
USD Index just broke 76. Major support. Back to 74 we go.
Doubt it. It is already so oversold short term, that the opposite of what you suggest is more likely. Check WTI price action this morning. It is this premarket session tell.
I think it will bottom at the 200 sma which comes at 75.77
I think the Euro is topping and the dollar is bottoming.
We probably don’t have much longer to wait.
what people are pricing in has nothing to do with it. the fly can explain:
Let’s face it, this whole rally was concocted for the benefit of asset managers and pension funds deep in the red...
I want the stock to go up, the pm's to go down. I want to stockpile. I want gold at 15000$/ounce and silver at 600$/ounce. I want to buy farms when people are starving. I want a war. I want a bazooka. I want a blowjob.
Your name is fitting.
especially since it's misspelled.
if the markets had known we would still have no detail by now a week and a half ago we would be a lot lower. how is this progress when there is no detail?
Jesus man, these are big fucking picture people. When Angie said that there were "a lot of deatils to be worked out, like how it's going to work"* she's handling the situation as needs be,
*direct quote. (reread it again)
It;s on schedule. For what, I do not know, but on schedule.
You're in "Good hands with the bloated state"
So's all bloody well nicked in the bag with the lot then, right? Now that's sorted out, times we join in the Euroland festivities. Maybe let us roam about free at the matches, eh? No more them fookin' fencing us in now, right? Spot of bover... Beat his bleedin' face in I will. England, England, England...
Keep your friends close and your enemies closer seems to be at work here.
Monetization by a factor is the only real solution. If assets fall even 5 percent, that will make most banks, USA included insolvent. Game over. That is why printing, as a new athletic olympic event is just beginning. Let the games begin.
I feel sorry for Merkel and Sarkozy.
When I see Merkel, I see a little four year old girl holding a Swastika flag at one of Germany's imfamous street parades.
Or maybe years later with the Stazi's. She's been through alot for god's sake! Give the poor East German girl a break.
Germany agrees to leverage EFSF. ECB excused of bond purchases.
http://m.cnbc.com/breaking_news/45042492/1
Merkel moves ahead but Handleblatt calls it a "Day of Broken Promises"..
"Moral Hazard" once again. Markets will run with the bulls.
Even with EFSF not financed by the ECB, the people will pay the escalating toll with the growing risk taken by elected officials and bank CEOs.
Thanks for your service Tyler. We don't get the straight scoop from the "uneven", happy talk in mainstream media.
The European "leaders" can't even agree what they want for lunch, never mind how to cut debt or reform monetary policy.
Poker is booming over there, though.
Merkel is the father of Sackozy's baby, and Bunga already had his first date with it
Sing along:
We are the world.....we are the banksters.....