Won't Get Fooled Again...

Tyler Durden's picture

Via Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Today feels just like it did in 2008. We had almost as many manic up days back then as crazy down days. Remember how we were saved when Fannie and Freddie got put into conservatorship? Remember how all was good when AIG was taken over by the government? Then we sold off the day that TARP failed, but rallied when it passed? Though by the time it was signed into law, the market was already selling off again? Or that weekend when the TARP infusions were made? That suddenly TARP was available to shore up the capital of banks? And the FDIC put in the Temporary Loan Guaranty Program so that banks could issue bonds guaranteed by the FDIC and that the depositor insurance amount was increased?

How many other "announcements" and programs saved the world? GS and MS were given bank holding company status. Insurance was provided for money market funds. CP backstop facilities were put in place. Yet the only thing that seemed to work, was time. Lehman was not the problem - Lehman was just a small part of the problem. Pretending that stocks weren't relatively stable for a couple of weeks after Lehman is just fooling yourself. Pretending that the stock market responded to all the government programs is really fooling yourself. TARP came in October and stocks were above 1100. They bottomed below 700 in March the following year.

I didn't include the QE1 dates. They are more interesting. QE1 was announced on November 25th and increased the size on March 18th, 2009. It was for GSE and Mortgage debt. Now those programs seemed to be able to stop the slide and drive the market as a whole up. QE1 made sense to me. Everyone around the desk was talking about how cheap credit looked, but everyone was still being forced to de-lever. Very few investors thought corporate bonds were expensive back then, most people though they were cheap, but couldn't take the risk.

QE1 alleviated pressure in the market and investors were able to take some risk. QE2 had less of an impact. The ECB has already been buying bonds, but at this stage I cannot find any investor who wants to buy PIIGS bonds but can't. Not everyone thinks they are CHEAP but don't have the capacity to buy them. That was the situation when QE1 was launched, and that is why it worked. Europe can add to their purchase programs, but it won't have the impact people want it to, because this isn't a liquidity crisis. There is plenty of liquidity out there. This is a crisis of rational, intelligent, greed oriented investors who just can't get comfortable that the problems in the PIIGS are resolvable. Buying some debt won't change that, all it will do is shift the risk further into the core making the crisis worse rather than better.

I have had about 50 people tell me how positive the events of the weekend are. How positive talk about using EIB and levering the EFSF funds are. The main point they make is that "Europe is finally getting it" or something to that extent. Ugh, I say. Europe has missed the point and had the market as ready as possible to deal with a Greek default, and is now setting itself up to be hurt much more by failure. I have had about 5 serious credit guys argue that these plans won't solve much if anything, are difficult to implement for a variety of reasons, and that it would result in downgrades if it did.

HYG is up just over 0.5% this week. The Italian 5 year bond closed on Friday at a yield of 4.96%, today it is at 4.95%. The 3 month EUR/USD basis swap is better, down from 104.75 to 100.25. This had been 82 back on the day the globally co-ordinated swap lines had been put in place. Greek 2 year bonds closed at 48.96 and are up to 49.15. CDS indices have moved more in line with stocks, but that is where the shorts are. One very smart trader pointed out that near the end of the day, MAIN went from a tight of 186.5 to close the day at 191. Still 5 tighter on the day, but well off the tights. During that time, European stocks such as the DAX went from 5580 to close at 5630, so there was no equity driven reason for the weakness in MAIN. Maybe credit just started to realize that the backdoor tricks to increase the size of EFSF are unlikely to work, and that the guy with the credit card (Germany) seems reluctant to let everyone use it. Maybe they actually like being AAA!

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Segestan's picture

If Germany lets the losers lose, than they will all gang bang Germany.

kurzdump's picture

I guess Germany is already used to getting gang banged.

redpill's picture

Up 300 points because of rumors Germany will prostrate itself further to the terminally ill Eurozone?

When this fake market finally goes tits up it's sure going to be an interesting movie to watch. 

oogs66's picture

i never thought we would see the 2008 lows, but with actions like this, I am scared we will.  they are being so short sighted and just plain stupid

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ redpill

Green.  Yes.

The fake market has been fooling with us for much longer than I would have guessed way back in 2007 (when the first obvious dominos started falling: Bear Stearns hedge funds).  Stock up on popcorn!  The movie may be long, but it will be interesting.

rocker's picture

Too many fools keep trying to buy it.  They will keep this up until the buyers dry up.

Only then is when we can capitulate.

Until then listen to the sound of the squid sucking the life out of the stupids who buy in.

SheepDog-One's picture

Up +300 and +500 for the week, due to ignoring Germany's own words that they are not backstopping bad Greek debt at all....oh nevermind all that SURELY they really mean they WILL so lets rally %5-10% in a few days time!

BlackholeDivestment's picture

...what, did the German image of the Whore ''not'' just ...fall out the saddle drunk and now it just ''happens'' to be embracing the Lion of Babylon (The Beast) with the right hand ...as labor is defiled? Lol. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2qy2wrwY-Q

ratso's picture

Despite how Tyler feels this is not 2008.  Conflating that crisis with this one doesn't shed any light indeed it just adds confusion.  The EU will eventually stumble into decisions that have to be made for everyone's well being.  

W T Effington's picture

Exactly how can taking on more debt that will never be paid back further everyone's well being? Politics meet mathematics. You are about to be destroyed.

SheepDog-One's picture

LOL ratso dream on...they will ONLY get more insane from here on out.

WVO Biker's picture

I am nearly flat everything and refrained from chasing anything and it was a decent day.

Then I wanted to watch some Flamenco - Rumba



Dick Darlington's picture

Again, thanks Peter for the great job!

Libertarians for Prosperity's picture



There's an old saying in Tennessee, I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee....fool me once.....shame on....  shame on you....  you fool me, can't get fooled again....

fuu's picture

Hey you can take this avatar if you want.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ Libertarians

Actually you and we CAN get fooled again.  Never forget that.  TPTB and human psychology can make remarkably BAD things happen to those even paying attention.

DosZap's picture

Libertarians fo...

Dude get it right......................and your Texan?

Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice ,shame on me.

GeoffreyT's picture

Wow... +1000 for unintended irony. The form used by Libertarians for Prosperity is a Dubya quote - possibly the most famous Dubya quote, although it competes with such otehr gems as "Putting food on your family" and "Is our children children learning?".


You do know who Dubya is, right? He's that Brokeback-Brushcutter guy: he played Jake Gyllenhall to Tony Blair's Heath Ledger.



macholatte's picture

see the You Tube link above

Smithovsky's picture

dax below 5k again next week?

Vincent Vega's picture

Germany will cave and go along with 'the plan.'

oogs66's picture

we might see the rating agencies put france and germany on watch negative the moment an actual press release comes out...so far this is all just complete speculation that there is anything real

Ned Zeppelin's picture

I say, predict, prognosticate that this Euro SIV nonsense is not real at all. Complete horseshit, and get out of the way when Greece actually defaults. Any minute now I think. The Eurozone is not as completely controlled by the banksters as the US, but it's close.  

Oh, and fuck Timmah. 

kito's picture

germany will absolutely NOT cave. they have stared into the eyes of the hyperinflation beast and dare not come across it again. some countries do actually learn their lesson. you underestimate the will of germany. the german people are highly rational/logical and understand what is happening-- and they actually DO have influence over their elected officials.

europe has zero chance of printing/spending their way out of their mess. the only spending by germany will be done to protect their own banks and infrastructure.  

americanspirit's picture

Germany has an intelligent population AND an honest judiciary. Those two points set them completely apart from most other European countries, and from the US BTW. German politicans hold office only as long as they act in the German people's interest, which is why the next set of elections is going to completely clean house.

kito's picture

agreed american spirit, agreed. tis the end of the piigs. 

NoClueSneaker's picture

Scheuble farts for 30 yrs in the verious gov. stools. He never ever did something in the interest of the german ppl, except for those of upper 3%.

Demonstrations of judicative honesty are numberous, not at least the decision of Constitutional Court in favour for money grabers - two weeks ago.

Looting of the populace and the EU-neighbours in turbo-mode is the main feature of Deutschland GmbH, especially in the last 20 yrs.

Gov. of SPD was unfortunatelly the champ of the scam. No hope.

You describe Germany from 1966-1982. No such thing anymore.




SheepDog-One's picture

I agree, what on earth would Germany agree to shoot themselves in the head for? People are just delusional these days, certain someone somewhere will surely pay the tab and make the bad man go away. Dream on.

DosZap's picture


100% agree, on the German people.............you left out one MORE thing they are, STUBBORN.

agent default's picture

If Germany lets the losers lose, there may be a breakup of the Eurozone and of the European union, so you go back to currency controls and tariffs locking up trade and you are left with a unified Germany, looking for room to expand its economy, and then... well it always goes to shit from there.  Always has always will.

SparkySC's picture

DOOOOOM and GLOOOOOOOM as markets  explode again.


This site costs followers a lot of opportunity as they keep their faithful frozen with fear.




clones2's picture

Oh yeah... Definitely very SAFE and STABLE markets these days.... /sarc

Vincent Vega's picture

Let me guess, Sparky, you have been long on the up days and short on the down days. Please enthral us all with your financial acumen...make a call right now on a stock, bond, market, currency, or outcome that we here on ZH can follow to see how you do.

oogs66's picture

one thing this site had right, is do the opposite of whatever Biggs is doing.  Anyone want to bet he has been adding to his 20% exposure on this rally?

kito's picture

OFF WITH THE TROLLS HEAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HOW DARE HE RUIN OUR BLEAK OUTLOOK OF THE WORLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Belarus's picture

Who are you speaking for, sparky? I mean, seriously, this site has the most useful data of any.....it's your problem if you're unable to intrepret it because you have spiraled down to new nadirs of morbid dumbness with the rest of America. This I'd say would make it a *sparky* problem. And if you are unable to comprehend, why the fuck are you here? Go hire a money manager dumbass--one of the likes of a Kyle Bass that knows what he is doing. Nevermind that non-sense, no decent money manager in his right mind would allow you in as a partner.  

SheepDog-One's picture

'Markets explode' oh you havent seen anything yet wait till the shit actually hits the fan and the wheels fall off this hyped up death contraption at full speed.

swissbene's picture

fear can be a healthy instinct when danger is present.  heightened awareness and focused behavior are productive responses as opposed to paralysis.

as concerns investing, this site provides more consistently useful information/analysis than other sources in my personal experience.

if by opportunity cost sparky means that it is useful to spend time not thinking about {economics, politics, finance} then agreed.  i have found it useful to moderate my own zh consumption despite visceral urges to keep reading*.

i do credit the articles and many members of the community here for improving my own investment performance.

@my man in amsterdam, fwiw will share some specific tactics:

a. buy dec 120 spy puts into large bs equity run-ups eg yesterday/today

b. take profits often eg on the afternoon slide, but build toward core position for meltdowns

c. pick a few large cap industry leaders with healthy dividend and wait for attractive valuation usually on days when markets get trounced (i like msft, intc, csco, mrk, rds.a -- though not at current prices)

d. sell out of the money calls on (c) to make a nice return if price jumps and some cash in the mean time.  calls + dividends make a pretty good yield

e. buy pm preferably on dips/manipulations (which are well documented here)

f. on PM price runs, buy some gld/etc puts according to taste (i like jan 160 gld at the moment)

g. diversify with respect to currency.  the SNB thing really surprised me.  cant get fooled again :)

h. moderation and patience -- this market is nuts and frequently presents good trades, but there will be more good trades for some time to come i expect

i. scared to death of bonds & will not touch them

i am not at all a pro -- so this is just in the spirit of sharing.  i personally like the approach of having chips on all sides in the current environment.  so one is indeed long the up days and short the down days.  add more of whichever chips are priced well when a given move takes place.


Ned Zeppelin's picture

Go spread your nonsense elsewhere. Only on ZH do you get the real story, not the B*llshit nonsense folks like you are paid to proselytize.   Enjoy your losses. 

Wolferl's picture

I guess that German chief justice Voßkuhle said on German TV on Monday that there has to be a national referendum for the ESM. This means no ESM at all.

knukles's picture

The bankrupt countries will all contribute more fiat currency to purchase the equity layer in a newly established CDO/SPV which will in turn buy the bankrupt countries and country's bank's debts which will serve as collateral for the debt to be issued by the SPV which will hold the bankrupt paper issued by the bankrupt banks and countries debt obligations. which will be purchased by the same bankrupt countries and banks which are already bankrupt.

Oh yeah, now I get it!
World saved by the same people who got us into the mess.

Tsar Pointless's picture

Do you folks get out in to the "real world" even once in a blue moon?

NOBODY is talking about this stuff. The proles, the serfs, they've been conditioned. They are told to not worry, everything is under control.

The people in charge are in charge and taking care of things.

No need to wake up from your NFL-induced slumber.

OK, computer?

Belarus's picture

It's exactly whty USD is safe right now. It won't become unsafe again until China pulls away from our debt in a meaningful way or the HP printers are pummeled by the volume. Until then, it's only accumulate for physical time. Back up the truck will come.

SheepDog-One's picture

Right, theyve got the peasants right where they want them, not suspecting a things, for the greatest shearing and butchering of all time!