On The World's Reserve Currency: What's Past Is Epilogue
Simply put, "it does not last for ever" should be ringing in the ears of every investor in the world with more than a few millisecond return horizon. And neither do any and all chartalist conventions which rely on the articial construct of reserve permanence, for one simple reason - being artificial, means the theory is flawed from the beginning. But it is JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest who frames it the best, "I am reminded of the following remark from late MIT economist Rudiger Dornbusch: 'Crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.'"
Source: JPM, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, December 2011
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This is cool. Where can one find the underlying data? Thanks.
fuckin Santorum goin over the top...stick a fork in us
Whattsa matter Trav.... Is the RP crowd too depressing for you :)
But seriously, Rick fuckin' Santorum?!?
watchin RP's speech now...it strikes me as a concession as much as anything else. Never thought he had a chance.
But, Rick Santordumb? WTF? Rly?
His opening made me feel better though...he viewed this as taking second place since Santorum has no money or real supporters other than Jim Bob Duggart! LOL. He was being interviewed on CNN in Iowa an hour or so ago, fucking hilarious!
And here comes Gingrich.....talking about how only HE speaks the truth....get the fuck outta here!
Still sad though that we placed 3rd, yes.
Hey America;
Looks like the 2012 election will be another made for television, Shithead(D) v. Shithead(R) affair, brought to you by your oligarchical overlords. I would suggest you at least buy silver, but the response would probably be 'silver a bubble'.
Freedom isnt free, and apathy and ignorance also come at a cost. Looks like your going to get the political representation you deserve.
Iowa doesn't mean anything, come on, they voted for Huckabee last time.
IMPORTANT - Watchthevote2012 has reported discrepancies in the following counties so far (all to the downside for RP):
Lucas
Adams
Adair
Cass
All small discrepancies to be sure, but the larger the county, the more difficult it is to tally and monitor manipulation. As such, any voter fraud would most easily be recognized in the smallest vote counts.
Oh and just my two cents: if Ron Paul doesn't win the nomination, I say we torpedo the Republican candidate's chances of winning by splitting the vote via write-ins. That way the RP/libertarian/not retarded bloc of Republican voters become absolutely necessary for winning elections.
Assuming, of course, that elections will even exist or matter 4 years from now...which is a big assumption...sigh...
agreed. the GOP has gotta burn or they'll never learn. not that they are capable of learning, but they might remember for the next election. not that they'll promote anything other than more sheister plastic men, but...ugh
yet on the other hand it seems wrong to reward obama in any way for his monstrous performance as the change agent of reform. it's not over til it's over.
The games afoot!!!
An open caucus state, with past & present O'Barry voters wringing their hands nervously up until the last possible moment, trying to decide on the weakest candidate of all to place on the ballot to oppose their Messiah...help elevate...Santorum?
Mr. Earmark himself?...really?
ROTFLMAO!!!
yeah; Santordumb's showing was unprecedented.
there's no way I could vote for Mormney or Bama...I mean can you even imagine those debates?
They will be morbidly hysterical together on one stage.
One saying he made money from laying off workers and the other saying he had many more layoffs under his watch...one saying he imposed healthcare socialism on a state and the other saying he imposed it on the entire country.
Its a bona fide race to the bottom...lol...but Romney will be chosen to oppose O'Barry, its the only way the bankers win.
seriously...what do people have against RP? Truth hurts too much? Kicking the can seems easier and more fun?
I just don't get it. This is reality, people....wake up and deal with it.
US will start WWIII when it sees fit in order to preserve US paper hegemony - only this time the "flight to security" won't last very long.
The entire world is sick of US hegemony. Except US' new BFF - France. God knows what US whispered in ther Frenchies' ears... something that would make them go against Germany's demand that bondholders, banks and investors should participate in losses - and on top of that push for new sanctions on Iran including freezing Iran's Central Banks' EU assets.....
Do you see the light, Bitchez... are you connecting the dots....France is frying some US Freedom Fries for Barry -
oh yes, the world is topsy-turvy and totally fucked - and the only sane politician in the empire is declared "unelectable".... well if so, the US and the world will truly and irrevocably fall apart. You see, the MSM potato heads don't realize that US hegemony IS THE PROBLEM - not, what keeps it together, but will destroy it.
What should we expect? A hard fight. No one gives up their empire with a shrug. Get dirty now, folks. Tell the born agains about Mormonism's freakish and cult-ish elements. If you want Ron to win - you must fight NOW!
You are making the assumption that the economy will continue to limp along...a coup,e of financial black swans or even one...could be enough to have RP leapfrog to the top
Your choices Pepsi and Coke. Pick your poison.
Look at the bright side; this is becoming a very expensive election for status-quo-seeking PACs to buy. They have had to put money on Romney, Gingrich, Bachmann, and now Santorum. Paul-supporters are getting value for their dollar in the information wars by placing only 1 bet: bleeding the beast while gaining political support.
Kinda hard to "bleed the beast" when the contributors can print the money to fund the campaign...
obama won iowa by a big margin last time, and iowa is not a traditional conservative state.
the battle for the republican party is just beginning, and i can't believe that some might want to call it over before it actually starts.
santorum isn't going anywhere in the party, as long as the people remember what happened to the last war hawk on election day.
Fleeting USD hegemony is a subject you always chose to ignore....even on a thread that discusses such.
How about we discuss the fact that the other reserve currencie above were denominted in gold and silver (except the end of the pound sterling's tenure). The dollar, once domestically and internationally backed, is the first true fiat standard, thus why it will fail more missriably than any other. The quadrillions of derivatives would never come about if it wasn't for this fact, because you can't print that much wealth. Now it revolves above our heads like a giant cloud of doom in the sky. How much longer the Central Bankers can run this shitshow, who knows, but they can't run it this way much longer. The math doesn't add up, unless we are all going to be millionares soon.
Right you are Mr Lennon H.
+1
Much as I loathe fiat currencies...
I've been wondering how exactly a country can establish a 'reserve currency' if it is truly backed by gold. If it is truly backed by gold, then isn't gold itself the reserve 'currency'? In what way was (for instance) Spain the issuer of a reserve currency in the 1500's? What does this mean? That there was a preponderance of Spanish coins in other countries' treasuries? That Spanish coins were more widely recognized (and thus traded at a lower spread) than other sovereigns' mintings? That Spanish government notes of credit were widely traded in lieu of specie?
I understand how we can say the UK pound sterling was a reserve currency, because they were afforded the 'exorbitant privilage' of having people trading their paper notes at par specie value even when they inflated. (Until they didn't, of course. Bye, bye, Britannia).
Help me out here, peeps.
At the top of the pile of the best books on this topic is David Fischer's The Great Wave.
http://books.google.com/books/about/The_Great_Wave.html?id=o8ea33eCFQgC
The Spanish inflation was not due only to ships full of New World looted gold coming into Spain, it started in the 1300s as the population came back from the Black Death. Eventually Spain over-reached as all empires do and all the money on earth couldn't save them. Sounds familiar!
I think modern derivatives will come to be seen in comparison to French fiat inflation notes: money that was a complete construction of deluded fiction and eventually proved to have zero value. John Law's mortgage-backed notes were an historical "kick the can down the road". It won't be a pretty story, as Marie Antoinette found out.
Some new reserve currency or international construct will replace the dollar and its value will be benchmarked against gold. That's why CB buy and keep gold. That's the real bottom line in today's fiat accounting.
...At the top of the pile of the best books on this topic is David Fischer's The Great Wave.
http://books.google.com/books/about/The_Great_Wave.html?id=o8ea33eCFQgC
Looks interesting, thanks for the link. Not sure it answers my questions re: reserve currencies during the preiod when gold=money, though.
So many books, so little time :-(
Why have a single reserve currency? If all central banks;
1) had a policy of selling any other country's fiat for gold, as soon as they had it deposited with them, and
2) floated their own fiat currency against gold, and
3) bought and sold gold for their own fiat at a price determined by a ratio of their gold holdings and the amount of fiat on issue.
Why wouldn't this work? Countries that printed or ran a huge deficit would be "punished" with a high price of gold but that would attract gold to the treasury coffers (especially if taxes could be paid in gold as well). I think this is the solution proposed by FOFOA but I'm not sure. So this is a blend of fiat and a gold standard.
@ Mr. LH there is spellcheck after all. your mongrelisms are atrocious. hopefully just hungover. "denominted" ha ha.
That's all you got? Spellcheck? We are talking about important issues, and you throw the "spellcheck" at us? Stay in the car, Junior.
And while you're at the fourth grade english teacher level....senetences are started with capitals, and one should use a comma when addressing someone in a sentence.
You are a buffoon.
+1 Eloquently put. Thank you.
Buffoonery all around, for everyone YAY! (Buffoonery: a much underused word)
well santordumb means we are all on our own, i mean talk about fucked up,,,,,,this man shouldn't be close it worries me about the populace i realize iowa is a different breed but this is so fucked up....i'm now considering canada based soley on the stupidity of the populace. Its no wonder the state of this country,,,,,,
Better go before it takes an indefinite amount of time to obtain a passport.
If lennon above is right and I think he is on a long enough timeline what the heck good is a passport going to do you? Where do you go? No where with out a portable fortune you can get across borders and that description does not include 99.9999% of us..
And then there is TSA...
Getting money across borders is getting harder and harder although there are a few avenues left. Although PM proponents tend to attract detractors on here the facts and history support this as being one of the few options available for the upcoming collapse of the financial system and by extension PM miners are a decent proxy with natural leverage; however if you are timid of roller coasters you best get a supply of depends before proceding.
Many folks think they lack the ability to invest in PM's to any significant degree, and while true of most of us it is equally true that this is where the junior miners can come into the equation. Clearly PM's have been beaten like a dog over the past decade iand a half with the intensity of the beat down increasing as we approach the banking system implosion; by extension the junior miners have been beaten even harder making solid prospects with very interesting projects available at bargain basement prices.
Or if you think PM's are an overhyped bunch of bullshit you can buy beans and flour and hunker down for what comes next.
The decision is yours to make but given the available choices playing the the junior PM miners for a while and converting gains to PM's stored overseas then using your passport to find your way to Belize or Costa Rica or Paraguay. As Lennon noted several months back {paraphrasing} - each time the Crooks beat the PM's down it gives you another shot at freedom.... your call
Last Year, I bought 10 bricks of coffee at $2.00. This Year $2.75 same brick and same brand. It was a very nice profit. The only problem is I drank the profit and the original investment. But seriously, You can use your FIAT to buy stuff that you will need, and it will give you a better return than the bank.
Costa Rica is not what it used to be. Try less populated countries to migrate. Uruguay has the easiest residency in the planet. Best advice go to the country of your choice and live there for a few months. I am from one of these countries, and the US is still far better IMHO.
We're not gonna hear the truth the American people know is in fact real.'Stand next to that Heartland trucker and you'd be on your way Mr. Freedom! The American people have more than just a right to be safe in their own home "from the intrusions"...it is what sustains whatever endeavor the PTB wish to engage in..."out there." since when did the American people's freedoms become "the problem"? We're the Vanguard here...but sometimes it takes time for time to catch up.
Anybody but Romney tea baggers. They do not care he may be the only one who can beat Obama. ABO
What the fuck does ABO mean?
STFU asshole. Your comment is nonsense as they all have been.
But, but, but the MSM said that Iowa would not matter.... Oh, wait, ONLY if RP won.
the anchor of nightline just called ron paul "CRAZY" and his following off the wall
there is actually someone on here right now dishing negatives out for the santorum campaign
Ricky Family Values.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FoYiAERXv3s&NR=1&feature=fvwp
Thanks Rak. Sick, but funny as hell.
Pretty much my takeaway on the Iowa affair
Pronunciation: san-TOR-um
Function: noun
Etymology:
Savage Love - 05/29/03
The frothy mixture of lube and fecal matter that is sometimes the by-product of anal sex.
Look at the size of those blocks.
the real (tin-foilllll) trouble is that the same institution has stayed in the background, pulling strings as the apparent holder of the reservve currency status changed.
Fiat currency (40 years give or take, life spanwise) and now this.
Bye bye Ms. American fiat.... I'm sure each change of status brought along or was accompanied by some.... perturbence in the field, a war or three maybe?
ori
/2012-the-year-of-anomaly/
Perhaps tonight is a good time to lay out a few more (meaningless) molotov's but I'm not about to hate on you, ORI. You have always been a gentleman. A spambot, perhaps, but a gentleman nonetheless.
After RP's loss tonight - fuck it - it's every man for himself. You know why 'the elites' win? It's not 'cuz of some grand conspiracy. It's simple human nature - they understand the premise of 'fuck it, I'm gonna get mine'. Nothing more, nothing less.
Sure, some here will hope for an RP comeback. They should be commended for doing so. But it's oooooooooooooovvvvvvvvver. Time to give up on the dream of having a country worth believing in and get yours.
Give up the dream spacemonkeys! My ZH uncle B9K9 has already quit this site. Dude is probably in Guantanamo as we type.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_z-hEyVQDRA
+ 1 Vic
"After RP's loss tonight - fuck it - it's every man for himself."
You are correct that Ron Paul cannot win now. It will be one of the psychopaths vs. Obama. B9K9 was one of the best here at ZH. He was a laser.
Gold, bitchez. Molon labe.
Greenie for you DoChen.
True story (which no one cares about) - I once had a 267 page Word document of B9K9 comments from this site (sad maybe, but true for me). Tragically it was lost in a boating accident (along with my physical silver - LOL) but true nonetheless.
Anyhow here's a classic B9K9 for all of us: he who complains has already lost.
If you are a true RP believer - campaign harder. And if you don't think he can win, get some more canned beans tomorrow. Either way, make tomorrow count!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxVEmiYdVJg
I wonder if the end of each bar coincided with the point in time when the respective country cut its currency's relationship with gold. Gee, I wonder...
You missed on the top bar, skip. The US abandoned the gold standard in 1971. We have been disguising the ride down with bullshit, missiles, and reserve status until the other central banks discovered that their county's (or countries') aggregate debt levels were even more untenable than ours. With some minor arm twisting, they now play the ponzi prance with us. Happy 2012.
The US$ is and will remain the worlds's reserve currency because the US military protects the world's shipping lanes and the Saudi's price oil in $'s. The US will and has used its vast military power to keep the US$ as the world's currency. This is a circular process with the $ allowing for near infinite deficit spending which in turn is used to further the US military power which in turn ensures the US$ remains at the top. There will be a war before the $ falls. It has nothing to do with debt to GDP or credit rating. The credit rating fell and rates declined and the demand for Treasuries increased. There are no valid alternatives. The Iowa vote of about 100,000 is a complete joke. Hell I live the SO. CA with 5 million people who could care less about how a few dumb ass hicks in Iowa vote or say. Obama must be laughing as his media powers make the Republicans look foolish.
You have to pay for that shit. Printing money and bombing random countries is not a plan for the long term.
Do you take visa?
The countries are not random. They all have something in common. Guess what it is?
Earl.
Has been since Kennedy got shot....I think you mean 'is not a sustainable strategy'.
Seems like a great plan Tempo, until it's not. Uh, it's not. Printing money out of thin air to bomb innocent people is not a strategy. And when the killing of innocent people comes to within it's own borders, that's when you know the game is over.
It's the ability to project power. Each of the "world powers" in the graph above had the ability to project power which made economic transactions "safe" so commerce could grow.
Each one lost the ability to project power as they could not spend enough to maintain their military superiority over those around them. Soon they were cutting their military, asking for help from other nations to pay their fair share... All the stuff you've been hearing on the news for the last 20 years.
England had the cheap and inexpensive gunboat. Now we have the 21st century equivalent, the remote control drone. Cheap, can go anywhere, undetected, and rain death from above.
The periphery has gone south, how long can the center hold?
Double post
Apparently when Americans log into their computers after a 2-week holiday and sees the price of silver in the $26-$28 range they raid the US Mint shelves (via Gainesville, APMEX, and local shops) like the gaming crowd on the first day of the Play Station 4 release!
http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2012/01/us-mint-sells-32-million-silver-eagles.html
Here is a video suggesting how the White House is going to solve the current problems w/the dollar.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OeIFcuVTS3U&feature=player_embedded
Is this where all the Santorum supporters are supposed to meet....Somebody was askin' me....
gonna be a rough night for RP supporters...
Seriously Trav, just exposes the nature of the game. It could have been anyone.
But it's Ricky, voted the most corrupt pol in the US in 2006. Nuts.
ori
Oranges to oranges, how does the most corrupt pol in the US compare to those in, say, India?
Ucht, same same. Here in India, it is done sans suit and tie, so feels a little more rough.
But it's all the same mafia, globally. Sickening characters abound.
ori
You guys threw off British rule. What are the chances of an internal revolution now?
No, colonialism changed to neocolonialism.Cheaper.Dont have to station huge armies,run the infrastructure etc.Were Brittania/france/Dutch/Belgians left off,pax americanna came in.
Precisely. We've just been changing rulers for the past millenium or so.
India should not even be a country actually, it is a forced agglomeration of many, vastly different cultures.
Heck, Culture= Language.
We have 27 or so major ones.
Our borders are one more false british creation. Divide and rule.
There you have it. A tinderbox.
ori
What's it like ORI, kicking it in the streets of Mumbai, where no one reads your blog and the lone white guy who walks the streets there is seen as a demi-god?
Mumbai is India's NY, shit city. I live in Bangalore, India's IT capital.
And it feels exactly as it is.
And no, white skin is no longer adored like it once was.
Could not resist the underhand jab eh Vic? :-)
All good. Look around your own life place, tell me, how is my old adopted Homeland? Where I learnt what was what and what is not. Eh?
Troy NY, the home of Uncle Sam...East Hartford CT...Portland...Foster City...Marin County...Portola Valley... San rafael....
Good memories Vic, which even the vinegared foul-mouths of ZH cannot take away.
ori
Tnx.
Let me riddle you this ORI: you bring a lot of great insights to this blog. Each time you comment I read it - and I can't say the same for all the other comments here.
But the pimping of your blog is getting old. Consider...
...having studied all world religions / all esoteric meanings / all of VH1 classic - I have concluded you are the Uncle Kenny to my Katy Perry per the following link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlyXNRrsk4A&ob=av2e
The link I posted is > or < than the links you post? Pls explain.
You are a good dude. But enough with the commenting here to fit it into your blog/agenda. Tnx in advance.
Vic, since you seem genuinely interested, here is a link to something still private. Just uploaded today.
A 50 minute overview of why i sound as I sound, say what I say and do what I do.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xs2V5cRS5Bw
It is a sliver of the stuff I have been handed to share.
Katy Perry? Please!
ori
If you are one of the human beings that find this spinning little marble called earth your home and aren't in the privileged political class, you better be praying your ass off that Ron Paul wins. Unless you're counting on that some mutant giant white swan is going to come shit on your head. Ron Paul is one of the last reasonably sized tickets that has any chance of successfully avoiding absolute disaster... But maybe you are one of those weirdos who aspire to live in a mad max movie. There's no accounting for taste. Maybe you have acquired a discerning palate for dog food.
RP is not going to happen. People will not listen to Your message because too many of them now depend on hand outs. They don't give a shit what happens to their neighbors or their country. I don't know if I can blame them. The soup line is a scary place especially at night.
Don't worry. We won't see Mad Max in our lifetimes. The middle class will just get smaller and smaller. The rich will still be rich and the poor will still be poor. Less Rich and More poor. We can't help that (history). You can only place your bets and hope You levitate from middle to the top. Very few will. That is how it always happens. Moving to another country will not help either. Enjoy Bangladesh ORI while You still can. Maybe before when the economy was not global, you could have hidden in a negative correlated country like Japan used to be many decades ago.
I had the great displeasure of being in a Wal-Mart today. This proved to me that Ron Paul will have a problem getting traction. It also showed why Obama is president today. I know it's going to be a rough sled to make liberty mean something again. But it's worth it.
Pat Caudel, dumb ass that he is, said Ron Paul supporters are just like little children throwing a temper tantrum, showing their displeasure with a situation. I say fuck him. We're showing our displeasure with George the 41st, BillyBob, George the 43rd, and Barry. We want more Andrew Jackson, Thomas Jefferson types. That's why my bumper sticker has a pciture of George Washington saying, "I'd vote for Ron Paul."
Just talked to a guy that works for a beer distributor: "I don't like all that political mumbo-jumbo."
The above post is far deeper than it would appear at first blush....
Truth is stranger, and deeper, than fiction.
I saw a BBC reporter interviewing a 30 something Woman on who she voted for. Her answer was "Romney, because of his stance on Gay Marriage".
WTF!?!?!
Never mind the economy, the most important thing is interfering with the lives of a minority.
Is religion really such a good thing for the US? It certainly does seem like you will get what you deserve.
Why do people believe the government is a tool to impose their moral values on other? Bunch of Morons. Every time, government infringes on the freedom of others, they are doing it on yours too. I defend the gay rights not out of love for them but because I protect my own freedom that way. If they succeed with them, I know that I am next.
Lol I think mark twain said that
Well Mark Twain was a beer drinker ...
Duplicate post
No, they're all having a prayer circle jerk drinking Santorum at the bottom of the Marianas Trench. If you see his supporters though please help them out and give them a lift.