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WTF Bloomberg Chart Of The Day

Tyler Durden's picture


That idiocy is job requirement for the bulk of sell-side "bankers" has long been known. That Bloomberg wishes to glorify it by making Wells Fargo's prediction of S&P 3700 by 2022 its "chart of the day", however, is absolutely ridiculous, and certainly qualifies for the WTF moment of the day.

From Bloomberg

Wells Fargo Advisors examined return for stocks over next 10 yrs when the start date is three years into a bull market and found in prior cycles that stocks have risen a median of 162%; implies S&P 500 can reach ~3700 by 2022.

  • Firm examined five prior cycles starting in year 3 of bull market: Chief Equities Strategist Stuart Freeman in note yesterday
  • 1973-1983, 1977-1987, 1983-1993, 1985-1995, 1993-2003
  • 2006 cycle only 6 yrs old, posting 12% return
  • 10-yr returns range from low of 57% for ’73-’83 cycle to high of 194% for ’85-’95 cycle
  • "What we are suggesting is that there is much evidence the last 40-plus years of later-cycle returns following the first upleg in cyclical bull markets and periods of mid- cycle meandering"

The desperation to push Joe Sixpack back into stocks at all cost, and get him to buy the hot grenades held by Primary Dealers, and GETCO's FRBNY "PPT" account, reeks from miles away.

As for "predicting" 2022, here is ours - the two machines left trading stocks will send the S&P to at least one quadrillion. Unfortunately, stocks will be priced in something called a "fiat currency" which will be totally meaningless by 2022, as it will be devaluing by the same amount on a nano-hourly basis.


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Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:27 | 2297788 CalibratedConfidence
CalibratedConfidence's picture

Inflation driven price appreciation

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:31 | 2297810 Gidas19
Gidas19's picture

S&P will be 6400 by 2022, thats why im long with zimbabwe money...

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:35 | 2297823 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Just flip the chart upside down.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 18:26 | 2298905 knukles
knukles's picture

This kinda shit reminds me of the ramblings of equity managers.
Er.  Uh..   Never mind....

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:46 | 2297863 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Yep. Nominally the S&P might be at a trillion by then, but you'll have to sell a kidney to buy a gallon of gas.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:12 | 2297951 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Thus, AAPL Mcap > US GDP.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:48 | 2297869 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Correct. This prediction is very accurate because one only needs to look at the Zimbabwe stock markets in 2006 onward. Of course they forgot to mention that gas will be $40/ gallon, gold will be $60,000/oz and silver will be $1700/oz... and the streets will look like somthing from a Mad Max movie... oh and ONE more BIG thing I forgot to mention... the streets will be lined with the heads of banksters.

I declare DOW 42,000, S&P 4900, and PONZI500 at 666,000...

Go ahead Ben, make my day!!

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:04 | 2297920 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Weezer - say it ain't so - cont.....

Somebodys apples, are crowdin my icebox,
Somebodys pimp-co, is givin me chills.
Guess ill just close my eyes.

Oh yeah, alright
Feels good, all hype.

Flip on the tele, listen to Benny
Insider trading, behind my back
The bubble is ready to blow...

Say it ain't so-oh-oh
Your dow- ow has funds to flow,
Say it ain't so-oh-oh
Your dow- ow needs your dough

I will just pay you
Since I can't even sue you
My taxes are long due,
So try and be cool, when I say...

This way.. is a waterslide away for me to chase returns ev-eryday- ay... so be cool. Ya

Say it ain't so-oh-oh
Timmay -ay wants your dough
Say it ain't so-oh-oh
We love the ben bernank show.

Dear barry, I write you,
although you love my silence.
You cleaned up, found jesus,
Or maybe allah I hear.
This pomo, sensation
Will bring us mass inflation
Like bush one, and bush two,
Our wealth is drowning in the flood-od, yeah, yeah-yeah, yeah-yeah

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 15:33 | 2298282 Troublehoff
Troublehoff's picture

love that song!


good conversion

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:15 | 2297963 tempo
tempo's picture

What if the Federal deficit was doubled and another tillion dollars was transfered to subprime student aid and students were mandated to buy two more AAPL products, then we would see a nice rally in equities. Why not? Ben's right there is no downside or black swans assoicated w stimulus. He is a hero and should be held up as the greatest person (liar) in the world.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:28 | 2297794 infiniti
infiniti's picture

Inlusive of global + private equity, that would be a markup of what... $80+ trillion?

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:29 | 2297795 dannyboy
dannyboy's picture

Seems legit.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:32 | 2297812 tgatliff
tgatliff's picture

Except for the fact that everyone knows that the world is going to end on Dec, 21, 1212.   

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:43 | 2298084 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

So the world ended 1000 years ago, and we have been living in the Matrix ever since?

Sounds about right. S&P flirting around 1400 plus/minus 1 for the last few hours. My bet is PTT will bust their ass to get the close above 1400 on the day, even if 1400 and change, i.e. not 1401.

Die, you sob...

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:29 | 2297796 Brother Revegen...
Brother Revegend Magoun's picture

Inflation driven economy

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:29 | 2297798 Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

I wonder how much they project a gallon of gas will cost in 2022.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:21 | 2297983 BeerBrewer09
BeerBrewer09's picture

2 silver dimes is my projection. (a little less, actually)

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 16:24 | 2298481 smiler03
smiler03's picture

Unless you know somebody in the military you won't be able to buy any. Grow your own!

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:30 | 2297799 Sutton
Sutton's picture

Long Dec'22 3700 calls

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:38 | 2297837 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Hmmmm, condor?...nah, butterflies! wait...



Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:30 | 2297805 Cdad
Cdad's picture

The doodlings of just one of many psychopaths that inhabit the offices of the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street.  Maximum ignore.

A suggestion for the folks at Wells Fargo...perhaps, it is LONG PAST TIME to commence internal efforts to actually address your utterly destroyed credibility?  Just a thought.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:31 | 2297806 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

it will be 11,400 by 2034 (10% comp return for 22 years)

and 1,000,000 by 2080!

buy now or be priced out forever.


Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:32 | 2297813 gjp
gjp's picture

All backward-looking, historical-precedent-based, technical market analysis is utterly useless now.  It really is different this time.

There are only two possible outcomes, hyperinflation or debt liquidation.  Current market action and policymaker behaviour certainly makes it look like the former, only time will tell.  And it won't be long.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:55 | 2297895 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

They will never allow debt liquidation or any deflation because then the banksters and WALL STREET SCUM will lose and that will never be allowed to happen. In case anyone forgot, 2008 proved how far they will go... KARMA IS A BITCH though..

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:51 | 2298128 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

That was known as capitalism back in the late 1700's.

We haven't had that since 1825.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:57 | 2297902 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

the advantage is the new transparency regime and helicopter pilot at the Fed...  We know how it will end!  Get z long for the (Hyper) and stocks

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:34 | 2297814 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture



Even Lazlo Birinyi just said, "WTF are they smoking over there...and whatever it is get me some!!"


full disclosure: fake Lazlo quote.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:37 | 2297833 Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

Mmmm... Biryani.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:33 | 2297815 farmboy
farmboy's picture

inspired by  puppet master Warren B who desperately needs to see his long dated short put position on the S&P 500 to expire worthless (these weapons of financial mass destruction)

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 16:17 | 2298451 hbjork1
hbjork1's picture


Didn't you mean "muppet master Warren B"? (He who bought Goldman)

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:33 | 2297817 Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

WARNING: Past performance does not guarantee future results.


Have a nice day.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 19:19 | 2299055 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

It does when you supply your chartists and analysts with the same product other wings of your company got busted laundering the cash proceeds....

And folks wonder what they're on....

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:34 | 2297819 alexwest
alexwest's picture

initial 3 years of bull market! really?...

lets Wells fargo give out his forecast: US gross debt / interest payments and
10 year %rate


Wed, 03/28/2012 - 16:37 | 2298534 mind_imminst
mind_imminst's picture

I have heard a few times before that secular bull and bear markets are generational in nature. Therfore, this bear Market, starting in 2000-2001 might not come to an end for about 6 to 8 more years or so. Nominally, in fiats, sure, S&P might hit 3700 in months under hyperinflation, but of course not in real money terms.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:35 | 2297824 Born-Again Bankster
Born-Again Bankster's picture

For projected return relative to gold performance, simply flip chart upside down.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 16:19 | 2298460 hbjork1
hbjork1's picture

Reminds me, I've got to get some more gold.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:35 | 2297825 alexwest
alexwest's picture

#2006 cycle only 6 yrs old, posting 12% return

funny somehow it didint work out last time...
i bet its probable outcome for next 10 years


Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:35 | 2297826 sabra1
sabra1's picture

when the S&P reaches 3700, i'm shorting with 5X short ETF!

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:36 | 2297827 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

That's just a conservative gold chart.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:40 | 2297841 resurger
resurger's picture

QE# Quintrillion

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:35 | 2297828 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

If the Banks are loaded to the gills with treasuries why are the trying to goad retail joe 6 pack into stocks? So they can dump the market on him and then when he comes scrambling back they dump their treasuries on him too? Poor Joe.

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 16:38 | 2297829 Golden monkey
Golden monkey's picture

Remember Sotheby's trading at near 100,000$ for a few milliseconds?





Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:39 | 2297839 AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

They "examined return for stocks over next 10 yrs when the start date is 3 yrs into a bull market."

So, they looked at prior examples of bull markets, and arrived at the conclusion that it proves this must be a bull market?

Did they also examine past scenarios where the "start date" was just before the beginning of a bear market?

"In the past, the beginning of bull markets were (surprise!), the beginning of bull markets"  Thats all I can get from this.



Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:40 | 2297840 vegas
vegas's picture

2022: 1) world's reserve currency is Yuan, 2) gold is illegal in US but priced at 10K /oz., 3) a 12 oz. diet coke at 7-11 costs $9.95, 4) gas is at $14.99 / gal., 5) unemployment rate is stuck at 12%, and finally 6) who gives a shit where the S&P is when life, as the founders of the country envisioned it, is OVER AND DONE WITH AS WE ARE IN SOCIALIST AMERIKA.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:06 | 2297923 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

6) IS ALREADY TRUE.  But in a Fiat regime with eroding policies and fundamentals, make Lemonade. And stack.

China 2022, btw, embroiled in civil war.  Gold is the monetary standard.  Diet coke no longer available.  Gas no longer available.  Unemployment rate is no longer calculated.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:39 | 2297842 Arnold Ziffel
Arnold Ziffel's picture

and oil $1,500 a barrel.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:40 | 2297845 blu
blu's picture

WF are laughing at us. They do this kind of thing as a prank now.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:41 | 2297846 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

This is a clear sign of drugs in the workplace.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:43 | 2297850 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

My prediction is Wells Fargo will be at Zero in 2 years. They still have Wachovia and Golden west to deal with.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 16:36 | 2298522 stickyfingers
stickyfingers's picture

Golden West, it reeks of irony.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:44 | 2297857 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

That's just a positive spin on the US going Zimbabwe.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:52 | 2297885 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

and a loaf of bread will cost you three hundred shares of AAPL.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:45 | 2297860 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Laszlo wants his ruler back.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:46 | 2297862 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Thye DOW/GOLD ratio will be at 1:1 within 3 years; pick a number between 3000 and 30,000.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:50 | 2297875 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

My number has been and remains $6,000. But who knows that dow gold ratio might go 10 to 1 with the 10 beig the Dow.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:26 | 2298004 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

paper gold or physical gold?

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:46 | 2297864 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

One wonders what their predictive powers said about the S&P in 2012 in 2002.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:47 | 2297866 Joeman34
Joeman34's picture

Translates to an annualized ROR of 10.11% - a bit aggressive if you ask me.  Long run historical averages are more like 7% - 8%...

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:48 | 2297868 Jason T
Jason T's picture

We already know what returns will be in 2022 .. -2% annualized real rates of return from 2007 - 2022


Buy the market today and expect a 0% real rate of return for the next 15 years.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:48 | 2297870 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

Does WTF stand for Wells The Fargo or something? I've seen that around quite a bit lately.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:49 | 2297872 stickyfingers
stickyfingers's picture

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. I'm sure that's in there somewhere.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:03 | 2297879 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture


The hounds are getting hungry and desperate to reel in the retail suckers to BUY these ponzi stocks so they can FINALLY UNLOAD them... we all know the game. This is a warning to everyone even thinking about taking the bait!! 

I am posting this because my contact has updated me on the status of the street... they can't hold out much longer without more BEnron QE crack or retail suckers buying en masse... fear is there because the word that ponzi money is tight these days... we could see some margin calls coming in...

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:52 | 2297884 ekm
ekm's picture

Gradual stock-sucker market coming to senses is no longer applicable.

Let's wait patiently for 1000 dow pts  per day drops.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:53 | 2297888 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

After QE70, more like S&P 37,000,000. Stock up on Tide.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:31 | 2298023 BeerBrewer09
BeerBrewer09's picture

Tide hoarders are terrorists.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:26 | 2297889 Zola
Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:55 | 2297894 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

scary,  my wife closed an old capital one direct banking account that had a small amount of money in it in february.  they sent her a check for the account balance and it bounced nsf.



Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:57 | 2297899 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

No doubt that QE37  will drive the market that high.....  Of course the price of a loaf of bread will be 400 barrybucks at that time.....  Question I have is whose picture will be on the one million dollar billl Bernie or Barry?

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:58 | 2297903 vintageyz
vintageyz's picture

Hats off to Tyler for summarizing the whole thing in two sentences.  Brevity is succinct and damn funny too.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:59 | 2297907 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

The Market will no longer exist in 2022. People that haven't died from eating corexit coated shrimp or radioactive tuna will be killing one another for the nutritional value of Air Jordans.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:18 | 2297972 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

some people will be lilving on their land, forced perhaps to defend it, but living nonetheless.

I wonder what the ratio of people living in the country relative to those in the cities and suburbs has done in the past few decades.  My suspicion is that the ratio has fallen by a factor of at least 10.  Expect rovers from the high density areas to become squatters on the larger tracts surrounding metroploitan/suburban areas.  A friend of my wife's just came to visit from Portland, bragging about her 20 new chickens and the eggs they produce.  Another couple raising goats and making cheese.  Another farming trout in their large, deep pond in the Adirondacks... back to basics, y'all.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:01 | 2297915 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Bloomberg has come up with a lot of false crap lately. Advising unemployment way down in 2013 and deceiving headlines. i wonder if Mayor Bloomberg is writing their script.

Looks like another source of business news bites the dust of truth.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 16:03 | 2298386 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Lots of "happy pills" news coming out of Bloomberg. Neither well founded nor persuasive. Definitely a sign the end is nigh.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:03 | 2297916 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Can't wait until the stock market and unemployment are both making new highs. This is the BSE (Bernanke Shalom Express) and we are about to take the mainline through the banana republic wastelands.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:11 | 2297945 Timmay
Timmay's picture

What happend to, "Past returns are not indicative of future results"??

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:13 | 2297956 Silveramada
Silveramada's picture

S&P can go to 4000 in 2-3 years still don't mean shit if gas is 12$, milk is 20$ and gold 15,000$/oz...

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:17 | 2297965 gookempucky
gookempucky's picture

ssshhsssttt ssshhhsssst birddog one this is bendover rover ---- you got copy--over--

ssshhhiiitttttsss ssshhiitttsss this birddog one we got your copy----over

Bird dog we have completed flyover and cannot I repeat cannot find anyone else to fuckover----over

Birddog did you copy-----over-----ssshhiiitttsss copy that bendover----birddog---- reports of 3 nuns and 7 children seen running from sector walll and broad---sshhhiiittssss--pursue and assimilate----over

ssshhiitttsssss----copy that----birddog--bendover rover on our way to that sector---over

Pilot blankfind---god I love this job-----reacharound pilot dimon---me too now hit the afterburners and lets go kick some nun ass, God I love this country.






Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:20 | 2297980 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

i dont understand your amazement tyler, like this has never happened before in nominal terms.....not that I agree with the assessment, but this is not surprising.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:22 | 2297987 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I seem to remember the same charts coming out of Japanese investment banks some 30+ years ago.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:29 | 2298014 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



And if I birdie #1, it implies shooting a round of 54.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:31 | 2298024 johnjkiii
johnjkiii's picture

The clear choice we have is whether we want to be right on the argument ( which I believe we are) or do we want to be right and make money. if the purpose of the argument is to assist readers to prosper as a result, we still have to find the tools to make that happen. As our Japanese friends have learned, you can have a market go from 40,000 to 10,000 and still enjoy numerous rallies of at least 35%. The same is true even if the argument somehow fails to be correct & the obvious result is we miss the opportunity. To help predict the markets (always difficult, especially about the future) we have to find the tools to do so. Here's our solution:

and here's how to use it:

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:33 | 2298031 I should be working
I should be working's picture

I will only say this: When a cyclical bull market really does begin no one will be pounding the table about what a great time it is to buy stocks.


In 1982 Businessweek ran "the death of equities" as it's front page story.  For a huge bull market like that to start everyone has to hate stocks.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 15:29 | 2298268 johnjkiii
johnjkiii's picture

Zactly! Never, ever a bull market that started when a bell rang. Usually you have to drag yourselve over the dead bodies of the bulls that died of towel throwing accidents.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:35 | 2298041 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Yes, of course, with Wells Fargo at the top of the pack based on all those earnings made by laundering Mexican drug cartel money, which is made in turn by exporting drugs to Wells Fargo analysts in the US.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:36 | 2298053 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

Sure, in devalued dollars.


Not shown with the chart: gold at $25,000

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 15:03 | 2298176 walküre
walküre's picture

In 2022 the US is adding 1 trillion debt to the balance sheet every week. AMZN P/E 152,000 and so on ..

2022 .. LOL. Like we're ever going to see that.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 15:56 | 2298359 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

so much for objective quality journalism

i suppose the Bloombergers have to switch off their brain in the morning before they go on air - or they had it removed before signing

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 16:45 | 2298553 Stackers
Stackers's picture

DOW 40,000 = Gold 40,000 ...... cant wait.

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