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    Crude oil time-spreads have completely dislocated from inventories. Historically, such dislocations have proved to be short lived. We expect that either spot prices will sell-off again or the back...

WTF Bloomberg Chart Of The Day

Tyler Durden's picture


That idiocy is job requirement for the bulk of sell-side "bankers" has long been known. That Bloomberg wishes to glorify it by making Wells Fargo's prediction of S&P 3700 by 2022 its "chart of the day", however, is absolutely ridiculous, and certainly qualifies for the WTF moment of the day.

From Bloomberg

Wells Fargo Advisors examined return for stocks over next 10 yrs when the start date is three years into a bull market and found in prior cycles that stocks have risen a median of 162%; implies S&P 500 can reach ~3700 by 2022.

  • Firm examined five prior cycles starting in year 3 of bull market: Chief Equities Strategist Stuart Freeman in note yesterday
  • 1973-1983, 1977-1987, 1983-1993, 1985-1995, 1993-2003
  • 2006 cycle only 6 yrs old, posting 12% return
  • 10-yr returns range from low of 57% for ’73-’83 cycle to high of 194% for ’85-’95 cycle
  • "What we are suggesting is that there is much evidence the last 40-plus years of later-cycle returns following the first upleg in cyclical bull markets and periods of mid- cycle meandering"

The desperation to push Joe Sixpack back into stocks at all cost, and get him to buy the hot grenades held by Primary Dealers, and GETCO's FRBNY "PPT" account, reeks from miles away.

As for "predicting" 2022, here is ours - the two machines left trading stocks will send the S&P to at least one quadrillion. Unfortunately, stocks will be priced in something called a "fiat currency" which will be totally meaningless by 2022, as it will be devaluing by the same amount on a nano-hourly basis.

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Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:27 | 2297788 CalibratedConfidence
CalibratedConfidence's picture

Inflation driven price appreciation

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:31 | 2297810 Gidas19
Gidas19's picture

S&P will be 6400 by 2022, thats why im long with zimbabwe money...

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:35 | 2297823 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Just flip the chart upside down.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 18:26 | 2298905 knukles
knukles's picture

This kinda shit reminds me of the ramblings of equity managers.
Er.  Uh..   Never mind....

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:46 | 2297863 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Yep. Nominally the S&P might be at a trillion by then, but you'll have to sell a kidney to buy a gallon of gas.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:12 | 2297951 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Thus, AAPL Mcap > US GDP.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:48 | 2297869 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Correct. This prediction is very accurate because one only needs to look at the Zimbabwe stock markets in 2006 onward. Of course they forgot to mention that gas will be $40/ gallon, gold will be $60,000/oz and silver will be $1700/oz... and the streets will look like somthing from a Mad Max movie... oh and ONE more BIG thing I forgot to mention... the streets will be lined with the heads of banksters.

I declare DOW 42,000, S&P 4900, and PONZI500 at 666,000...

Go ahead Ben, make my day!!

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:04 | 2297920 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Weezer - say it ain't so - cont.....

Somebodys apples, are crowdin my icebox,
Somebodys pimp-co, is givin me chills.
Guess ill just close my eyes.

Oh yeah, alright
Feels good, all hype.

Flip on the tele, listen to Benny
Insider trading, behind my back
The bubble is ready to blow...

Say it ain't so-oh-oh
Your dow- ow has funds to flow,
Say it ain't so-oh-oh
Your dow- ow needs your dough

I will just pay you
Since I can't even sue you
My taxes are long due,
So try and be cool, when I say...

This way.. is a waterslide away for me to chase returns ev-eryday- ay... so be cool. Ya

Say it ain't so-oh-oh
Timmay -ay wants your dough
Say it ain't so-oh-oh
We love the ben bernank show.

Dear barry, I write you,
although you love my silence.
You cleaned up, found jesus,
Or maybe allah I hear.
This pomo, sensation
Will bring us mass inflation
Like bush one, and bush two,
Our wealth is drowning in the flood-od, yeah, yeah-yeah, yeah-yeah

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 15:33 | 2298282 Troublehoff
Troublehoff's picture

love that song!


good conversion

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:15 | 2297963 tempo
tempo's picture

What if the Federal deficit was doubled and another tillion dollars was transfered to subprime student aid and students were mandated to buy two more AAPL products, then we would see a nice rally in equities. Why not? Ben's right there is no downside or black swans assoicated w stimulus. He is a hero and should be held up as the greatest person (liar) in the world.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:28 | 2297794 infiniti
infiniti's picture

Inlusive of global + private equity, that would be a markup of what... $80+ trillion?

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:29 | 2297795 dannyboy
dannyboy's picture

Seems legit.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:32 | 2297812 tgatliff
tgatliff's picture

Except for the fact that everyone knows that the world is going to end on Dec, 21, 1212.   

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:43 | 2298084 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

So the world ended 1000 years ago, and we have been living in the Matrix ever since?

Sounds about right. S&P flirting around 1400 plus/minus 1 for the last few hours. My bet is PTT will bust their ass to get the close above 1400 on the day, even if 1400 and change, i.e. not 1401.

Die, you sob...

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:29 | 2297796 Brother Revegen...
Brother Revegend Magoun's picture

Inflation driven economy

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:29 | 2297798 Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

I wonder how much they project a gallon of gas will cost in 2022.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:21 | 2297983 BeerBrewer09
BeerBrewer09's picture

2 silver dimes is my projection. (a little less, actually)

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 16:24 | 2298481 smiler03
smiler03's picture

Unless you know somebody in the military you won't be able to buy any. Grow your own!

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:30 | 2297799 Sutton
Sutton's picture

Long Dec'22 3700 calls

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:38 | 2297837 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Hmmmm, condor?...nah, butterflies!..no wait...



Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:30 | 2297805 Cdad
Cdad's picture

The doodlings of just one of many psychopaths that inhabit the offices of the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street.  Maximum ignore.

A suggestion for the folks at Wells Fargo...perhaps, it is LONG PAST TIME to commence internal efforts to actually address your utterly destroyed credibility?  Just a thought.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:31 | 2297806 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

it will be 11,400 by 2034 (10% comp return for 22 years)

and 1,000,000 by 2080!

buy now or be priced out forever.


Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:32 | 2297813 gjp
gjp's picture

All backward-looking, historical-precedent-based, technical market analysis is utterly useless now.  It really is different this time.

There are only two possible outcomes, hyperinflation or debt liquidation.  Current market action and policymaker behaviour certainly makes it look like the former, only time will tell.  And it won't be long.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:55 | 2297895 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

They will never allow debt liquidation or any deflation because then the banksters and WALL STREET SCUM will lose and that will never be allowed to happen. In case anyone forgot, 2008 proved how far they will go... KARMA IS A BITCH though..

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:51 | 2298128 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

That was known as capitalism back in the late 1700's.

We haven't had that since 1825.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:57 | 2297902 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

the advantage is the new transparency regime and helicopter pilot at the Fed...  We know how it will end!  Get z long for the (Hyper)Inflation...gold and stocks

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:34 | 2297814 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture



Even Lazlo Birinyi just said, "WTF are they smoking over there...and whatever it is get me some!!"


full disclosure: fake Lazlo quote.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:37 | 2297833 Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

Mmmm... Biryani.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:33 | 2297815 farmboy
farmboy's picture

inspired by  puppet master Warren B who desperately needs to see his long dated short put position on the S&P 500 to expire worthless (these weapons of financial mass destruction)

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 16:17 | 2298451 hbjork1
hbjork1's picture


Didn't you mean "muppet master Warren B"? (He who bought Goldman)

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:33 | 2297817 Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

WARNING: Past performance does not guarantee future results.


Have a nice day.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 19:19 | 2299055 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

It does when you supply your chartists and analysts with the same product other wings of your company got busted laundering the cash proceeds....

And folks wonder what they're on....

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:34 | 2297819 alexwest
alexwest's picture

initial 3 years of bull market! really?...

lets Wells fargo give out his forecast: US gross debt / interest payments and
10 year %rate


Wed, 03/28/2012 - 16:37 | 2298534 mind_imminst
mind_imminst's picture

I have heard a few times before that secular bull and bear markets are generational in nature. Therfore, this bear Market, starting in 2000-2001 might not come to an end for about 6 to 8 more years or so. Nominally, in fiats, sure, S&P might hit 3700 in months under hyperinflation, but of course not in real money terms.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:35 | 2297824 Born-Again Bankster
Born-Again Bankster's picture

For projected return relative to gold performance, simply flip chart upside down.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 16:19 | 2298460 hbjork1
hbjork1's picture

Reminds me, I've got to get some more gold.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:35 | 2297825 alexwest
alexwest's picture

#2006 cycle only 6 yrs old, posting 12% return

funny somehow it didint work out last time...
i bet its probable outcome for next 10 years


Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:35 | 2297826 sabra1
sabra1's picture

when the S&P reaches 3700, i'm shorting with 5X short ETF!

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:36 | 2297827 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

That's just a conservative gold chart.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:40 | 2297841 resurger
resurger's picture

QE# Quintrillion

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:35 | 2297828 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

If the Banks are loaded to the gills with treasuries why are the trying to goad retail joe 6 pack into stocks? So they can dump the market on him and then when he comes scrambling back they dump their treasuries on him too? Poor Joe.

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 16:38 | 2297829 Golden monkey
Golden monkey's picture

Remember Sotheby's trading at near 100,000$ for a few milliseconds?





Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:39 | 2297839 AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

They "examined return for stocks over next 10 yrs when the start date is 3 yrs into a bull market."

So, they looked at prior examples of bull markets, and arrived at the conclusion that it proves this must be a bull market?

Did they also examine past scenarios where the "start date" was just before the beginning of a bear market?

"In the past, the beginning of bull markets were (surprise!), the beginning of bull markets"  Thats all I can get from this.



Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:40 | 2297840 vegas
vegas's picture

2022: 1) world's reserve currency is Yuan, 2) gold is illegal in US but priced at 10K /oz., 3) a 12 oz. diet coke at 7-11 costs $9.95, 4) gas is at $14.99 / gal., 5) unemployment rate is stuck at 12%, and finally 6) who gives a shit where the S&P is when life, as the founders of the country envisioned it, is OVER AND DONE WITH AS WE ARE IN SOCIALIST AMERIKA.



Wed, 03/28/2012 - 14:06 | 2297923 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

6) IS ALREADY TRUE.  But in a Fiat regime with eroding policies and fundamentals, make Lemonade. And stack.

China 2022, btw, embroiled in civil war.  Gold is the monetary standard.  Diet coke no longer available.  Gas no longer available.  Unemployment rate is no longer calculated.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:39 | 2297842 Arnold Ziffel
Arnold Ziffel's picture

and oil $1,500 a barrel.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:40 | 2297845 blu
blu's picture

WF are laughing at us. They do this kind of thing as a prank now.

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 13:41 | 2297846 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

This is a clear sign of drugs in the workplace.

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