As WTI Passes $105, Guardian Says Iran "Military Action Likely", Would Send Crude Soaring

Tyler Durden's picture

Between the Chinese 'surprise' RRR and the Iran export halt to UK and France (and escalating tensions), Oil prices are off to the races this evening. WTI front-month futures have just broken $105 (now up more than 10% in the last two weeks), the highest levels in over nine months and just 8% shy of the 5/2/11 post-recession peak just under $115. Brent (priced in EUR) remains off last week's intraday highs (as EUR strengthens) but still above the pre-recession peak but in USD it traded just shy of $121 - well above last week's peak. Of course, this will be heralded as a sign of demand pressure from a 'growing' global economy rather than the margin-compressing, implicit-taxation, consumer-spending-crushing supply constraint for Europe and the US that it will become in the not too distant future. As we post, The Guardian is noting that US officials are commenting that "Sanctions are all we've got to throw at the problem. If they fail then it's hard to see how we don't move to the 'in extremis' option." The impact of any escalation from here is gravely concerning with PIMCO's $140 minimum and SocGen's $150-and-beyond Brent prices rapidly coming into focus - and for those pinning their hopes on the Saudis coming to the rescue (and fill the Iranian output gap), perhaps the news that our Middle-East 'allies' cut both production and exports in December will stymie any euphoria.

From The Guardian: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making military action likely

Growing view that strike, by Israel or US, will happen
• 'Sweet spot' for Israeli action identified as September-October
• White House remains determined to give sanctions time

"It's not that the Israelis believe the Iranians are on the brink of a bomb. It's that the Israelis may fear that the Iranian programme is on the brink of becoming out of reach of an Israeli military strike, which means it creates a 'now-or-never' moment," he said.

"That's what's actually driving the timeline by the middle of this year. But there's a countervailing factor that [Ehud] Barak has mentioned – that they're not very close to making a decision and that they're also trying to ramp up concerns of an Israeli strike to drive the international community towards putting more pressure on the Iranians."

Chart: Bloomberg

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Yen Cross's picture

Haven't talked with anyone directly yet. But have heard some talk of  $110bbl immediatly off of current prices. That's WTI not North Sea ( Brent) which I would guess would jump to $122 ish.

ghengis86's picture

Now or never, remember? Like take that 9mpg Ford Expedition for one last load at Home Depot for the final touches on your flip house in Clearwater before your $2k in Obama/Bankster payola that won't buy much more than a few days/weeks time. Do you renew that Netflix subscription? Do you want to eat Alpo the rest of your life? Come on man!! It's now or never!!!

Michael's picture

I had a dream Israel was wiped off the map in a world war and nobody cared.

Xkwisetly Paneful's picture




Asalam Alekem Brothers.



Comay Mierda's picture

You guys are fucking nuts. This is all part of albert pike's three world wars plan to establish a satanic world government. look it up

Tsar Pointless's picture

Ahh - an Albert Pike reference. Loves it! A big +1 to you, my friend.

I'll name drop Nikola Tesla, just for shits and giggles.

SilverDoctors's picture

I can almost hear Bush and Cheney now....

Bomb bomb bomb....bomb bomb Iran!
Bomb bomb bomb....bomb bomb Iran!

This is not looking good.  With a Greek default less than a month away unless massive new printing can be agreed upon, it appears that the elite are instead choosing plan B: Start WW3 and blame Iran for the collapse.

The Big Ching-aso's picture



I think we're about to get a crude awakening.

sun tzu's picture

FYI - Bush and Cheney haven't been president for 3 1/2 years. Wake up, Rip Van Winkle.

Michael's picture

MSNBC news, CNN news, and FOX news has 320 million American's licking 6 million Israeli bung holes.

That's the way I see it.

JoBob's picture

Michael, how's your anal fixation these days?

Think for yourself's picture

Correction. It was plan A all along.

Albert Pike was not mentioned upthread for nothing. Hell, the masonic satanists outlined this in 1871.


Piranhanoia's picture

Do you mean Albert Shanker?

Bolweevil's picture

Rudolf Schenker, Scorpions

AldousHuxley's picture

US was going to do a quick strike with the drones, but realized that Chinese hacked the drone communication technology and gave it to Iran.

Moreover, Iran also has their own drones perhaps provided by Russia/China aerospace.


Russia and China said they will support Syria.....Iran's only friend in ME.


This is not some blacksheep Sadaam's Iraq or dirt poor Afghanistan with 100year history of foreign invasions.

Iran = ex-Persian empire....they know the they beat US to it....

  • built nukes with smart scientists while Americans were flipping homes
  • invested in STEM education to come up with scientists to creat etheir own fighterjets and drones, while Americans rely on imported Chinese engineers who have no loyalty to upper echelon of USA (white old man)
  • created their own oil exchange away from dollar, while America used their scientists and engineers in financial engineering to invent MBS, CDS, CDO sales and high frequency trading bs.
Pinto Currency's picture



Just like the failed anchovy harvest in the 70s along with OPEC that caused the last inflation shock, it looks like those awful Iranians are going to cause another inflation storm now.


Don't mention the printing of trillions of paper dollars by Western central banks. 


The Iranians are doing this because they hate our freedoms.  Freedoms like the TSA crotch groping, FBI wiretapping, having the right to have a bank robosign away your title to your home, and all that stuff.

SWRichmond's picture

If only the average american "homeowner" knew how fucked up the chain of title was for residential proprty in the U.S....

MachoMan's picture

The chain of title is not remotely fucked up...  we know the owners of record for every property...  and, if incorrect (e.g. death of owner and failure by heirs to properly record conveyance to them), then affidavits can be used to fill in the gaps. 

The problem that we have is with potential clouds on the titles...

Note: who do you think is going to win, a bonafide purchaser, for value, of a home without a recorded assignment or a 15 level downstream assignee of a mortgage who has no real paperwork to prove the assignment?  Best case scenario, when the BFP closes and pays the lienholder of record, the last assignee has a cause of action against whoever got the proceeds... 

The law has a lot of safeguards built in...  and they're going to get ramped up starting this year, but especially next...  just watch.  (and you thought the banks were undercapitalized now...)

Michael's picture

Diversification is important.

sun tzu's picture

The Iranian built jet fighters will be wiped out in a couple of days. Their only hope is a guerilla war and attacks on US, EU, and Israeli soft targets around the world. They do have some decent SAMs from Russia and China, so that might protect them a bit.

Element's picture


to create their own fighterjets


Let's not overstate it, they created a small fast-jet trainer, and put a gun and small bomb payload on it.

It's no more a fighter than a US, Brit or Russian trainer, with limited avionics, ground-attack options, and A2A weapons.

Those limited capabilities are there simply so these aircraft can fulfil their role as a combat and weapon trainer.

They would have almost no hope of getting into an effective firing position in any real battle, and zero hope of survival.

It will greatly assist Iran to design and develop a real second-tier fighter one day, and especially attack aircraft, and the necessary avionics etc., but they are coming from way behind.

My guess is they're going to buy latest-gen Russian or Chinese offerings in the interim, and a lot of very impressive precision missiles.

Barter is good.

China needs the oil and Iran needs a new first tier multirole attack aircraft, with real first-tier fighter capabilities.

I'm pretty sure they will find an agreeable medium of exchange, for such a trade.

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

SwingForce said:

Michael Schenker, UFO

and Bolweevil said:

Rudolf Schenker, Scorpions

Rudolph Schenker and his seventeen year old little brother Michael, Scorpions:


CrashisOptimistic's picture

Probably not.

But folks might want to notice that it's late February.  The northern hemisphere's agricultural base is getting ready to buy fuel for the tractors that plant the food the world eats.  Planting season starts in just a few weeks.  They'll be buying at $110/barrel.

Think that food will be cheap this year?

LetThemEatRand's picture

I'm sure it was just a coincidence that Corzine and his henchmen at MF Global largely destroyed the futures positions of said farmers.

sullymandias's picture

Think that food will be cheap this year?

Food prices? Maybe they will stay cheap via futures manipulations until a real shortage exists. 

SWRichmond's picture

you can't eat paper food futures....


Oleander's picture

We just talking about this today. Our locally grown organic tomatoes will not seem so highly priced this year.  Imported fruits and veggies will become very expensive.  Grow what you can yourself. There are great container garden websites available now for those who can not plant a whole garden. 

DaveyJones's picture

was thinking about this too as I put in more garden space

SWRichmond's picture

Also putting in more garden this year, doubling.  I love fresh veggies, not to mention having food...

pods's picture

You really can grow alot of stuff in limited space if you try.  I usually start a dozen or so more cherry tomatoes than I am going to need, then give them away at work.  I was surprised at how excited people were when they would tell me that they tomatoes.  Going to run my long beans up the south side of the house this year to free up space in the main garden.  Got a second solar powered electric fence controller to keep the deer out.

Drip irrigation is so cheap nowadays that even those with little time in tougher climates can grow quite alot with minimum input.


DaveyJones's picture

the Australians have done some great work on low water agriculture. Organic content of the soil is KEY. Soil with 2% organic can hold 75 percent more water than soil with 1. It's a giant sponge principle and it makes common sense. You can also build systems to catch and retain the rain that falls - from tank systems to mere ponds and carve outs in the hills that let it slowly seep into the earth below. I'm amazed the southwest doesn't require this. Have you ever seen Greening the Desert with Geoff Lawton?

Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

My goverment tells me that high fuel prices won't effect my food prices because food and fuel are not included in the Conumer Price Index,so with inflation not being a worry,////don't worry...../Sarc

SumSUN's picture

This isn't gonna affect plastic rice is it?

Matt's picture

Unfortunately, since plastic is a product of oil, yes, your plastic rice is going to cost more; however, real rice, if hand-harvested, will cost less if produced locally, so you may be better off with some white basmati.

Michael's picture

Sorry Albert, Michael's plan is now in effect.

The world's private central banks have been stuffed to the rafters with its member banks toxic waste. The central banks have so much toxic debt shit coming out of their ears they themselves created, they will blow themselves up into a quadrillion pieces leaving them and their member banks worthless, never to be heard from again.

I love it when my plans come together.

vast-dom's picture

go engrave some min wage swastikas you fucking loser hater.

sullymandias's picture

overall effort and attitude is good

vast-dom's picture

you know it! cleaning the retardo diaper and sputum off the 0h on a gorgeous Sunday evening listening to mellifluous tunes.

jeff montanye's picture

some about here and elsewhere give anti-zionism a bad name but israel has a lot to answer for and answer for it, it will.

Element's picture

Clarinet by any chance?

Xkwisetly Paneful's picture


Beyond being what should be naturally lawful imbecile,

being a jew hating doomsdayer is not unique or novel.

Aslam Alekem Brother Abdullah.