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As WTI Passes $105, Guardian Says Iran "Military Action Likely", Would Send Crude Soaring

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Between the Chinese 'surprise' RRR and the Iran export halt to UK and France (and escalating tensions), Oil prices are off to the races this evening. WTI front-month futures have just broken $105 (now up more than 10% in the last two weeks), the highest levels in over nine months and just 8% shy of the 5/2/11 post-recession peak just under $115. Brent (priced in EUR) remains off last week's intraday highs (as EUR strengthens) but still above the pre-recession peak but in USD it traded just shy of $121 - well above last week's peak. Of course, this will be heralded as a sign of demand pressure from a 'growing' global economy rather than the margin-compressing, implicit-taxation, consumer-spending-crushing supply constraint for Europe and the US that it will become in the not too distant future. As we post, The Guardian is noting that US officials are commenting that "Sanctions are all we've got to throw at the problem. If they fail then it's hard to see how we don't move to the 'in extremis' option." The impact of any escalation from here is gravely concerning with PIMCO's $140 minimum and SocGen's $150-and-beyond Brent prices rapidly coming into focus - and for those pinning their hopes on the Saudis coming to the rescue (and fill the Iranian output gap), perhaps the news that our Middle-East 'allies' cut both production and exports in December will stymie any euphoria.

From The Guardian: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making military action likely

Growing view that strike, by Israel or US, will happen
• 'Sweet spot' for Israeli action identified as September-October
• White House remains determined to give sanctions time

"It's not that the Israelis believe the Iranians are on the brink of a bomb. It's that the Israelis may fear that the Iranian programme is on the brink of becoming out of reach of an Israeli military strike, which means it creates a 'now-or-never' moment," he said.

"That's what's actually driving the timeline by the middle of this year. But there's a countervailing factor that [Ehud] Barak has mentioned – that they're not very close to making a decision and that they're also trying to ramp up concerns of an Israeli strike to drive the international community towards putting more pressure on the Iranians."

Chart: Bloomberg

 


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Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:29 | Link to Comment linrom
linrom's picture

You forgot to offer Salami to Allah. What happened?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:48 | Link to Comment object_orient
object_orient's picture

There is no treaty obligation, because there is no treaty.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 02:15 | Link to Comment CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Yes, it's much worse than a mere "treaty". Organized Jewry bankrolls both parties, owns and staffs most media. Demicans and Republicrats will do what ZOG wills.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 06:16 | Link to Comment Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Why would someone red arrow you for telling the truth? I cannot find any mutual defense treaty. The only treaties I can find is where the USA brokered a deal between Israel and Egypt and Israel and the PLO [Dealing with terrorists I guess].

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 03:51 | Link to Comment Tompooz
Tompooz's picture

 "They need US anti missile systems to defend their airspace and USN carrier airgroups to up the strength of the air campaign."

 

Sooo, what happened with those 69 Patriot missiles intercepted in Finland? Any confirmation of their ultimate origin yet?


Mon, 02/20/2012 - 09:51 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

ah nah, those woz from germanye and going 2 souf corea, all legal like, silly Fins jus let their dogie eat end-user certifikates and pooped on the menyfest, so it looked like the explodives were illeagleable.

All sorted

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 06:13 | Link to Comment Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Strange, I did a search for defense treaties betweent the USA and Israel and couldn't find any. I was able to find MOIs about us giving them billions of dollars, but no mutual defense pact. Please point me toward this treaty you wrote about.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:15 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Bullfucking shit on the big rigs sitting at 5.

Make that 14 and even walmart will say fuck it park all of it and layoff the distribution workforce.

Long ago I discovered 120 desiel in Jersey where it was 1.99 and everything was talking SHUT THE USA DOWN! on the radio.

Unfortunately for that poor fuel man, his 3000 gallon tank was drained in a few minutes and truckers kept coming far and wide as soon as the cheap gas hit the wires like a cheap gold rush.

And it was....

Late in my days I would dump 300 gallons of 4.20 desiel into the tank EVERY 24 HOURS because with two of us drivers running as hard as possible to keep up... bring the goddamn fuel and price be damned.

Compared to keeping Accounts happy fuel is cheap.

It is YOU the grocery store and walmart buyer that PAYS for the overages in fuel.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:59 | Link to Comment SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Wouldn't it have been better PR had the U.S. just printed the money to buy the oil rather than print the money to pay the troops to kill innocent people for the oil? I guess losing strategy either way. 

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 08:29 | Link to Comment silverbullion
silverbullion's picture

That's the problem, Iran doesn't want to accept dollars for oil.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:29 | Link to Comment Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Or ammonium nitrate, for that matter.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:56 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Ammonium nitrate?

Kill all chickens, their shit fuels terrrrists!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:59 | Link to Comment WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Hold the Potassium Nitrite, please.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:23 | Link to Comment RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

 

I laughed so hard Ipad soup shot out my nose. It burns.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:10 | Link to Comment chintito
chintito's picture

Got any dinosaur sludge?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:24 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

No, but I have unicorn piss.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:41 | Link to Comment LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

is that the virgin female carribean or east african striped male variety of unicorn piss? \they gargle with quite different sensations/

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:49 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I just started getting into it.  I've been buying the one that says "table".  I am no connoisseur like you.  Which do you prefer?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:11 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

War is the health of the state.

It's also a racket, too, as Smedley Butler told us some 80 years ago or so, but who cares? There are flags to wave, nationalistic slogans to put on bumper stickers, and patriotic songs to sing.

Freedom isn't free, you know?

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:35 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I liked that summer of 2010 ( RECOVERY), comment! Forgot to give you a Greenie! So +1 for this comment and look above.

 

  Ok I guess I missd the POINT? He is a nice person! UPDATED!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:17 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

PRO PATRIA ARMIS TUENDA

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:42 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Silver Keisers.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:43 | Link to Comment mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Sentio aliquos togatos contra me conspirare.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:55 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Louie Louie, oh no.  

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:56 | Link to Comment WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Food fight!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:43 | Link to Comment thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture

It costs a buck oh five.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:06 | Link to Comment yabyum
yabyum's picture

long car magnets.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:12 | Link to Comment mt paul
mt paul's picture

Iran..sunday 19 feb 2012

 

cuts export of oil

to France and Britian ...

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:13 | Link to Comment navy62802
navy62802's picture

Saudis also cut their output.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:27 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

They've been "cutting" output since '09.  It has nothing to do with their production capacity.  Nothing.  Move along.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:36 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

May I suggest you look up a word in the dictionary? STOCKPILING

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:39 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

May I suggest you read a book.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:02 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Can't debate without losing--uses childish insults.

You should adopt a new debate style.  That's only if you don't wish to remain a child in the eyes of your peers forever.  If not, then carry on.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:07 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I am mocking you.  You didn't figure it out?  Damn, I thought it was plain as day.

You use ad hom.  You use strawman.  So I started doing the same thing to make a point.  You want me to stop?  Ok.

GLOVES OFF.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:20 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

lolwat?

That is a stupid bluff.  The use of ad hominem is not "keeping the gloves on", and ceasing its use is not "taking the gloves off".  Stop pretending that you have been acting like anything but a little shit.

And further, how exacty were you mocking me when you were replying to someone else?

As a fish facing a man with a gun, you might want to flop yourself out of the barrel.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:25 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

You are the leader of the unicorn brigade, remember?  It was you who came when I called.  You are who I have been mocking.  You use ad hom relentlessly.  You use strawman.

You should see yourself on these threads.  You get beat up until you use ad hom, and then you come back the next day with more strawman.  Then you tell everyone else they are using ad hom and strawman.  It's pathetic.  You are pathetic.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:58 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Note your forced characterisation of me is pathetic, just like your high priest's feeble attempts.

It is odd that you attempt to paint yourself as an unbiased observer here.  The sort of thing a child would try to do.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:10 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Ad hom.  Ad hom.  Ad hom.  You just used three ad homs.

You should change your avatar to "Ad Hom Guy".  No, better yet, stop posting.  You would save a lot of space.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:37 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Perhaps you should learn what ad hominem is before attempting to claim that other people are using it?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem

I characterized your ARGUMENT as pathetic, I didn't try to disprove your argument by calling YOU pathetic. I further pointed out that you are acting childish.  This was not connected with your argument, and is thus not ad hominem.
Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:05 | Link to Comment Max Fischer
Max Fischer's picture

 

 

Holy shit!  Cliff and Woody are in a fight.  

Between the both of you, you guys have racked up more ridiculous predictions than any other two members on this website. 

COMEX default is imminent!  The USD will collapse within weeks!  Silver to $60 by next Friday!  The industrial panic is coming!  Silver will reach parity with gold!  

Rather than fighting, you two should find a neighborhood bar, have a drink and tell each other ridiculous tales.

Max Fischer, Civis Mundi

 

 

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:15 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

THe Comex defaulted two months after I said it was imminent, I never gave a timeline for the collapse of the USD, silver was rising against my predictions, which said that silver would go to ZERO on greatly increasing volume as the suppliers and users fled the corrupt market, the industrial panic IS coming, and silver has been at parity with gold before.

Basically, you had to make up or mischaracterize a quote to find where anything I said was wrong, save for those two things that simply haven't happened yet.

You are still upset from all the thrashings I have given you over the years, RNR.  Quick, try to change names again and deny it is you!  Maybe this time you won't be found out instantly!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:20 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

He was refering to me.  I have said the dollar will collapse.  Last spring I said it would move to 66 and then collapse.  I have been wrong, I'll admit.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:03 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

The dollar has collapsed in real terms.

The USDX is about as useful as an altimeter that reads the the height of the device to the bottom of the cockpit.  It is useless because it compares the dollar to all the other curencies that are being debased at about the same rate as our own.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:10 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Yeah, I know, but I still use it as a metric when timing the movements of the snaking Fiat Ponzi, and I said it would be at 66 awhile ago.  I've been wrong, and Max was refering to me.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 03:39 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

COMEX defaulted?  ROTFL...oh really???  HAHAHAHAHA...no it didn't.

I'm sure now you will regale us with how it "really" defaulted in YOUR opinion which isn't worth the shit from the ass of a broke-dick dog.

RNR is a dick, but he beats you like a fuckin drum.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:05 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

I'm not taking sides in the douche debate, but you just used the word "you" 11 times in a few sentences to complain about someone talking too much about the poster to whom he is responding instead of the topic at hand.  So I've been talking about me for too long.  What do you think about me?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:08 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Look fucknuts, he has been attacking everyone's character for years but then turns around and points out when we do it.  I was finally telling him to fuck off.

And about you?  I wish you would stop posting.  You look like idiot on here.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:13 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

lol, sure, I've been attacking people's characters, rather than calling them out for what they are.

If you are so upset with my pointing out of the failures of your arguments, stop using logical fallacies.  If you are upset that I use those same fallacies, then point them out when I use them.  Those things hurt both of our arguments.

Rand doesn't really look like an idiot, he is clearly a fairly smart guy, but he is just infected with a poisonous ideology, like so many around here and in the halls of power.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:18 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

I've decided to put all my support behind Shit Sandwich.  

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:25 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I can't do this anymore, which is why I had started the unicorn piss thing, I can't deal with how you warp an arguement from, "Ad hom, strawman, ad hom."  And you do it because you are a masochist.  I won't be commenting with you anymore.  It's not worth my time.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:46 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

If you can't stand the heat, get out of the Fight Club.

Edit:  I am retracting part of my comment due to LH deciding to retire.  It wouldn't be fair of me to characterize his withdrawal the way I did after reading his other comments downthread.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 15:18 | Link to Comment Think for yourself
Think for yourself's picture

That second paragraph earned my +1

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:28 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

World production of oil platued in '05.  The House of Saud peaked it's production in '09.  If the reference to stockpiling was meant that the KSA is stockpiling that much oil then something is really up.

They have been getting desperate, using techniques like pumping saltwater.  This is a desperate measure.  The Kingdom says it can hold $100 oil, just like CEOs of financial firms came out in '07-'08 and said they were well capitalized.  Sound familiar?

I welcome an energy to mitigate crude.  Problem is, peak production is now, and we needed to start funding the research 40 years ago.  We didn't.  Now what?  Liquid coal?  Because that worked so well for the Nazis.  Liquid NG?  Too dangerous to ship.  Tar sands?  Poor EROEI.  Fracking?  It won't replace light sweet crude.

So while you want to go to the center of the earth and find the philosophers stone, I say do it.  Give me some evidence that we can all go about our business without crude.  That is when you start calling me names, saying I worship death.  You use ad hom.  You use strawman.

I've been mocking you. 

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:39 | Link to Comment Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

If the US announced either: dramatic expanse of nukes or dramatic expanse of domestic drilling,

$100bbl would be a long distant memory.

Good thing no one started funding any alternatives forty years ago,

the first nuke plant popped up all on it's own like it was shat out of a unicorn.

I do find the devout belief in modern science rather entertaining as well.

Bought and paid for no different than anything else but looked upon as gospel by folks who otherwise would question the sun rising.

and not to mock anyone or anything, but it was posted 19023 times in the 70's that the world would  run out of food by 1990 but of course the avg acre now yields 12times what it did in 1970.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:47 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Petrofertilizer has a huge role in food production.  And although nuclear technology played a role in providing energy, research in developing it was stopped due to "accidents'.  This is happening in the solar industry by Midas man Obama funding the wrong solar voltaic makers.

If we had been addressing peak oil for the last 40 years, private companies would have been trying to make solar and nuclear alternatives.  I could say those who oppose peak oil are to blame for the destruction of our planet but have not because I don't like to judge people.  But since TMosely openly judges me, you know what....

Hey Tmosely, because you don't understand peak oil and you think we live in a utopia, you are to blame for whatever goes wrong in the world from now on because in your heart you want thumanity to not overcome the obsticles.  You want to fail.  You are the pessamist.  You worship death.  You are the demon.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:03 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Thanks for totally mischaracterizing my positions.  By doing so, you reveal without the shadow of a doubt that you are totally wrong, and are childishly trying to misdirect attention and blame away from yourself.

My REAL position is that government needs to cut all subsidies and regulations on all forms of energy production, because their interference in the market has created vast inefficiences and slowed needed change.  This will allow the market to redirect resources effectively, and will ensure that energy prices are and will remain a useful indicator of under or overinvestment in the sector.  I never said anything about a utopia--you just made that up.  The rest of your argument is just childish babble.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:06 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

You use ad hom and strawman.  Now I am going to write a bunch of shit that has nothing to do with the arguement.  And by the way, you are stupid and childish and you worship the devil.

-TMOSELY, while he sips his lemonade

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:16 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

You seem upset.  Can't even see my arguments.  Only focusing on the personal critiques.

That's just sad.  Take a break.  Calm down and come back into the ring to debate the important points.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:26 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Yeah, you're right.  I'm done.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:21 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Who will prevail... the anaconda or the alligator?  It's like watching Fatliners or Life in the Fatlane.  In the end. Nobody wins.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:27 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Thanks for the laugh.  I just realized this myself.  I tap.  I'm done.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:37 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

I fucking love fight club.  I'm considering changing my avatar to Meatloaf.  

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:42 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

That is something I would like to see.  Mind if I call you Bob after doing that?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:20 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

He would do anything for love.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:24 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

but he won't do that

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:37 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

We have a common ground, guys.  Fuck.  The.  Oligarchs.  We may have different ideas about how to take our freedom back, but we all want our freedom back.  

I know you guys love Ron Paul's every man for himself ideology, but I think that's that one thing he has wrong.  Nonetheless, I voted for the guy anyway.  Not that it counted.  I'll vote for him again in November.

 

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:43 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Good.  You have depth. 

Glad to have you in the club.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 03:43 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

"Hey Tmosely, because you don't understand peak oil and you think we live in a utopia, you are to blame for whatever goes wrong in the world from now on because in your heart you want thumanity to not overcome the obsticles. You want to fail. You are the pessamist. You worship death. You are the demon."

There's a word for what just happened here, Mr. Hendrix; it's called "epiphany."  welcome to a greater understanding.

Cliff is transparent when you understand what you are looking at.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:38 | Link to Comment Taint Boil
Taint Boil's picture

 

 

Godwin's Law

As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1

Looks like Godwin's Law is spot on.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:41 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Considering that WWII was lost by the Nazis because they had no crude to run their machines, I think this example is apt.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:56 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Except that isn't what happened.  They were simply overwhelmed by the industrial might of the United States turned to the doctrine of total war.

The US supplied all of the allies around the world with seemingly endless amounts of materials.  They never had a chance after the US entered the war.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:12 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Yeah it has nothing to do with the fact that they couldn't run their tanks because they had no oil for them.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:19 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

You are assuming the question here.  At what point did they not have fuel for their tanks?  Was it before or after their country was shredded by American bombers?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:28 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

FDR cut STandard's oil and then went to war.  That will be the last comment I make.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:01 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

The Fischer-Tropsch substitutes kept Hitler in the game a lot longer than most experts predicted or could have imagined.

Of course, if your plants are being bombed into rubble faster than your slave labor force can rebuild them it doesn't work out so well...sayin.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:16 | Link to Comment msamour
msamour's picture

Actually the Nazis could not get a hold of the oilfields in the Ourals, so they lost precious time there. If they had not attacked Russia right away, and instead bought, or traded for the oil they needed, the war would have probably lasted another 10 years. In the end their own nuclear bomb project would have been successful (remember a lot of scientists that worked on the Manhattan project were actually German.)

Well, had the war lasted another 10 years, there would be many different cities around the world turned into glass.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:17 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Fascism couldn't last that long.  It is fundamentally unstable, and can't withstand the stresses of war.

Look to Marco's Spain to see how economies and the associated industrial base fairs under fascism.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 03:46 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

....which is why Stalinist fascism lasted what, fucking FIFTY YEARS?

Shut the FUCK UP, Cliff

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 03:54 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

you definitely have to look up how long the most typical cases of fascism lasted and how well they are suited to war...

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 06:28 | Link to Comment Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Franco, not Marco, and he's still dead.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 09:07 | Link to Comment Acet
Acet's picture

Actually the Fascist regimes from Franco (not Marco) in Spain and Salazar in Portugal lasted from the 30s till the mid 70s. In fact, both dictatorships lasted beyond the death of their respective founders.

Quite a lot of time for "fundamentally unstable" political systems.

 

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:57 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Keep up the " Intelligent, well versed posts, Mr. Lennon Hendrix, I enjoy having your knowledge on Z/H! I'm just as PISSED as you are! I'll take this over some really bad things that have been done to people I love.

   The time to rise is in your Heart. The time to conquer is (NOT)!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:23 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Thanks Yen.  I like reading your posts too, even if they are over my head.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:54 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

You should post like this all the time.

Your other shit was just annoying.  Post real arguments so we can talk like adults.

As to your argument (yes!  a real argument!  THANK YOU!), looking at past data, I don't think you can really claim that Saudi oil production has peaked, given its rather odd non-trend in production over the last thirty years: http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=sa&product=oil&graph=produ...

I tend to give more credence to FOFOA's theory that the Saudis are actually being paid for oil in terms of gold, and when you look at the price of oil in gold, oil is not very expensive compared to most any point in history (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/economy/gold_oil_ratio.php), where the current price is 16.55.  I can't speak for what they will do about the fiat price of oil.  Honestly, I doubt if they can hold it, and I honestly doubt if they are stockpiling it, since their wells should act like strategic reserves, why go through the extra expense of pumping it out just to sink it down into another used up field.  But one should not simply dismiss the possibility out of hand.

Now, as to alternatives for energy, you need to understand the different functions of crude.  Crude can be used to produce electricity (rare), refined into an energy dense fuel for transportation (most common), or refined into chemical feedstocks for production of everything from plastics to pharmaceuticals.  By separating out these functions, we quickly see that the most important function of oil is to provide us with an energy dense fuel.  Thing is, there are CURRENTLY other technologies that mimic the energy density of liquid hydrocarbons, namely the various air-metal batteries that currently exist.  The existence of this alternative automatically puts a cap on the price of fuel, as if fuel rises too much in price, it will encourage the adoption of the infrastructure needed to service these types of batteries.  Of course, that ignores the literally thousands of different possible sources for liquid fuel, which include some of those that you noted.  Similarly, for the number two use, one can imagine the ban on industrial hemp being lifted to allow for a return to that as a source for those feedstocks.  In addition, great strides in genetic engineering have been made that have given us numerous strains of bacteria that produce different hydrocarbons quite purely.  These can also be adapted to that use.

The IMPORTANT issue is energy in general, namely the production of electricity for the grid.  Of course, the potential sources of new energy are legion here as well, anything from burning the fuels mentioned above to rapidly advancing solar technologies to new advanced thermovoltaic technologies to off the wall stuff like space elevators harvesting the rotational energy of the Earth or cheap placement of solar arrays in space or some kind of cold fusion device.  Possibilities range from the mundane to the wild.  But no-one can say what the future holds.  One can only be certain that there WILL be a future, and absent government interference, it will be better than the present.

Sorry for pointing out that you are a spade, spade.  Your unending characterization of any and all current and potential replacements for current uses of oil as "unicorn piss" is childish and reflects poorly on you.  If you wish to be treated as an adult, act like one.

And no, you haven't been mocking me, you have been denigrating yourself.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:19 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

You are a passive agressive fuck, aren't you.  You tell me to not act childish, you give me your arguement, then you insult me. 

Which leaves me to counter, and then insult you, which you love, since this is why you act how you act, you masochistic little fuck.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:24 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Sorry, but you are acting childish.  And you failed to respond to ANY of my argument.  

Take a break and come back.  You are too angry to form a good response right now.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:28 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I tap.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:44 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Thanks for the debate.  I enjoyed it.

I'm glad you aren't pulling a Trav and letting a debate degenerate into a blood feud.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 03:56 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

don't flatter yourself, cliff.

You really ARE a dipshit.  You argue with REAL scientists who are in the energy profession, right here on ZH.  You don't know who they are and you are too stupid to figure out the subtle jibes they put at you because the shit flies over your fucking head.

There is no blood feud between us.  I have NO respect for you, got it?  You are a worthless person, a liar, a fraud...I see right through you.  Do you not get that yet?  I toy with you when others just ignore you because I get a kick out of abusing you as much as you like being abused.

There was no debate between you and LH.  There was his posting of facts and conclusions and your response with the SAME OLD BULLSHIT as every other time.  You don't even know how space elevators would generate energy, the fucking earth's rotation?  LOL.  Not even CLOSE.  Movement through a magnetic field, dipshit.  Basic science.  Nevermind that space elevator is a misnomer, wtfever.  Get the EASY shit right for ONCE, you worthless miserable fuck.

LH bowed out because he realized as I have that there is no point in even attempting to "debate" anything with you because you are impervious to the facts.  So he just mocks you, as I do.  But, earlier, in a moment of clarity, he achieved a point of recognition about you that people simply cannot be led to, they must discover on their own.  And for that I applaud him.  He saw through you.  Having done that, it is inevitable that he will never again put any weight in what you say, won't respect you, will not regard you as even worth entertaining.

You should be used to this; don't pretend like it hasn't happened before.  Now, go on and bleat for me, I find you amusing.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:35 | Link to Comment ljag
ljag's picture

Are there any uses of oil that have no alternative....like tires? It is well documented that peak oil has come and gone.....so what exactly is the argument you 2 are having?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:29 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Oil is just a hydrocarbon, and hydrocarbons can be synthesized, so no, there is nothing that can't be replaced.

And peak oil is NOT certain.  Production could go in either direction from here.  The fact is that it has plateued, and is only slightly below the highest value from 2005.  I would wager that that has more to do with slowing economies than companies just not being able to produce the oil.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 04:01 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

really?  Peak oil is "not certain," huh?

So in about 4 words, you assert (without realizing it) that oil production can grow forever?

GFD, they don't make morons like you anymore, do they?

Whether oil has peaked now or in 2005 or in the future is immaterial.  It will peak as an inevitable matter of what we smart people call basic mathematics and what people like you call incomprehensible voodoo.

At any rate, within the next doubling interval, oil production must climb 85mbpd against a backdrop of discoveries having peaked 50 years ago and demand growth outstripping production growth by 8:1.  Good luck with that shit.

Better get crackin on them "space elevators"

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:35 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

says Cliff "No, I am NOT smarter than a 5th grader" Mosely-Claven?

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:04 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

It's funny how you were able to prove my exact point in just one line.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 03:58 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

what, that you AREN'T smarter than a 5th grader? 

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Bleat for me...go on.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 02:59 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

May I suggest you read a book.

R E A D A B O O K! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlKL_EpnSp8

EDIT: WTF is up with this crazy nesting? I was replying to Mr Lennon Hendrix ...

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:34 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

may I suggest you look up Export Land Model, IDIOT?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:46 | Link to Comment thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture

Seems like a certain Republican Presidential candidate, whose name the MSM dares not speak, predicted something like this back in 2002.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGDisyWkIBM&feature=player_embedded

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:05 | Link to Comment Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

yeah but ron paul doesn't want to give billions of dollars to isreal every year for nothing. so we must not listen to him.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:13 | Link to Comment navy62802
navy62802's picture

Military action in Iran = Game over for the global economy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6y8fc3n-mI

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:03 | Link to Comment Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Whoa but the evil zionistas are provoking war to save their economy?

Just like they invaded Iraq for cheaper oil as it crests at all time highs for this time of the year.

Come on, to be in the herd means keeping the herd's deluded garbage in order!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:22 | Link to Comment navy62802
navy62802's picture

Wow, you need to relax there, buddy. I said none of those things. All I said is that war in Iran is going to be a disaster for the global economy. It's going to skyrocket the price of oil and thereby snuff the remaining life out of the crippled economies of Europe.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:18 | Link to Comment old naughty
old naughty's picture

history written by TPTB says otherwise...

many sectors benefited.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:15 | Link to Comment Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson's picture

Does Iran have any yellow cake?  Thats all that frightens me.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:20 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Yes they do. They call it cous cous.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:52 | Link to Comment WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

I already miss Twinkies.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:44 | Link to Comment CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Are you serious? Anyone could get an old USSR nuke if they wanted one. This shit isn't about Iran getting a nuke. It's about the petrodollar and thats it! The government doesn't give two shits if Iran kills you with a nuke. Now if they cheat the gov out of some petro dollars? Now they care!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:12 | Link to Comment Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Nobody would nuke an oilfield, it would be economic bad first,  population bad, second and trailing.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:36 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

uh, no they couldn't just get a nuke from the USSR.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:49 | Link to Comment mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

You're scared of yellowcake?  They've got a functioning reactor.  They don't need no steenking yellow cake.

And anyway -- so what?  Are you afraid of crazy middle eastern countries whose names start with 'I' that have lots of nukes and believe that they have a license from God?

 

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:47 | Link to Comment Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Israel's nukes are not proven to exist. Israel has not confirmed they exist. Besides, Israel is under no international obligations as regards nukes, they have not signed any non-proliferation treaty and are thus exempt from it's provisions. Now Iran is a different story, they threaten the world and would use the bomb on Israel and the USA. They have no need for nuclear power, it is just a cover to build a bomb and drop it on Israel and the USA. Everyone knows this, I heard it on FOX and CNN. When have they ever been wrong?

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:12 | Link to Comment Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

fer realz? holy fuck?! we must then send thousands and thousands of our underprivileged young men and women to die in defense of the rothchilds, err, i mean israel!!! it's not like they can get a decent job in america, right? let's send them to defend israel! yeah!!!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:42 | Link to Comment Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Yes, they have bought tons of yellow cake from Niger! This is a slam dunk! Yes, we konw where it is, we know it's location.  We don't want our first warning to be a mushroom cloud over Washington DC. This is a war of peace, a war to preserve the peace.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:16 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

France uses a little Iranian crude, but most of the Northern EU uses Brent and Gazprom!

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 01:48 | Link to Comment RichardP
RichardP's picture

I heard on a radio talk show that England uses 1% and France 3% from Iran.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:19 | Link to Comment infiniti
infiniti's picture

Premium unleaded in LA is in the $4.50 to $4.75 range currently. I would think that the UCLA Ceridian PCI index will take another sharp fall this month.

 

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/02/ceridian-ucla-diesel-fuel-index.html

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:23 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

Thats interesting, Robo told us that they were giving away the stuff in so cal...

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:29 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Only if you are wearing a lululemon unitard and drinking a cafe mocha latte.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:32 | Link to Comment EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

It's easy to think like that Hulk when you are using your parents credit cards and living in their basement.

He also said that credit unions are not insured by the government, and putting your money in them is not safe, like it is in a bank.  Go figure!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:20 | Link to Comment shuckster
shuckster's picture

Too bad Uncle Sam is so addicted to oil taxes or we could cut $.50 off the pump price

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:23 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

"It only costs $5 bucks to frack a barrel outta the rocks (TM Methman)"

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:53 | Link to Comment mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Ah, now you made me nostalgic. 

I really miss that guy!  I wonder if I read all his old posts maybe I could imitate him.  And Robo.  And Johnny Bravo.  And MDB.

Or maybe I'll just have another drink.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:30 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The US subsidizes oil.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 01:27 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

How do you propose to pay for road maintenance? Privatize them all? Yes, I understand that gas tax is diverted into general revenue pool and misallocated, but fundamentally, somehow, roads have to be paid for.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:21 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Didnt the saudis claim again they would increase output? How does Iran being an Opec member affect the other Opec members?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:24 | Link to Comment roccman
roccman's picture

KSA lies as much as the EIA and IEA.

 

Peak Oil Bitchez - it's what's for dinner

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:32 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

We have unicorn piss for that. 

To the Planet of the Unircoooooooooorns!!!!!!!!!!!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:00 | Link to Comment xela2200
xela2200's picture

Didnt the saudis claim again they would increase output? How does Iran being an Opec member affect the other Opec members?

--------------------------

The Saudis want the US to go to war against Iran. Do the math?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:24 | Link to Comment TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

No matter when but IF they enter Iran it is O V E R folks!!! Capisci?!

O V E R !!!!!!!!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:16 | Link to Comment RichardP
RichardP's picture

Do you mean enter, as in with boots?  Or as in enter their airspace?

It doesn't really matter that Iran's production facilities may be out of reach of our bunker buster bombs.  A few well-placed bunker buster bombs dropped on the entrances to the underground production facilities should create some consternation.  What good is a production facility if you can't get into it or out of it?

Don't see any need to do anything more than pass over Iran.  I don't think we will see boots on the ground any time soon, if ever.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:27 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Yeah, the US could just send over some of them spankin' new RQ-170 (AKA "Gary Powers") drones to scout out and, ....er, ....what, that's been tried?

Fuck it, send in the motorcycle corps with magnet bombs and computer geeks with Stuxnet 2.0.

That'll fix 'em.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:12 | Link to Comment Walter E Kurtz
Walter E Kurtz's picture

There will be boots on the ground in Iran because the US will need to secure the oil fields...errrr I mean secure demorcracy.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 01:52 | Link to Comment RichardP
RichardP's picture

If the objective is to stop the development of Iran's nuclear capabilities, what does securing the oil fields have to do with that?

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 03:00 | Link to Comment sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

The objective is to secure the oil fields. Then they'll have full control of the Persian Gulf

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:25 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

Will this ever stop. Sure, lets start another war and kill and maim more Americans and people of other nations. Might help Obama get re-elected and nothing more important than that.

Am so sick of the way this country is run.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:54 | Link to Comment mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Yes, it will stop.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:29 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Ahh we live in a biflationary paradise. While Saudi crude exports and production begin to roll over, and traditional sources falter, China crude imports soar. Meanwhile, Japan exports plunge an astonishing 10%. And Euro recession clocks a second quarter of contraction. All while the central banks expand their balance sheets toward the sky. 

There's no doubt about it: we're living in a f'in Utopia!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:34 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Do we get cookies?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:47 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

You can have some whole wheat fig newtons...

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:58 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Deal!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:58 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Better buy fig newtons now. They'll be worth $70 a piece soon the way we're going

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:51 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Hulk? Aren't your slacks soiled?

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:48 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Nice to have you back "HULK" , A Maniac! Ready to Build Something?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:08 | Link to Comment Coast Watcher
Coast Watcher's picture

No, but those Skittles the unicorns are shitting are very low priced.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:32 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

China cuts RRR as it's crashing and oil goes bid!!! Net importers of oil are going to be f*cked 40ways to Sunday.

And Greece gets it's bailout hahahahahaha

Here comes the pain.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:51 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Chump , want to take bets on a 50BPS RBA rate cut at the next meeting. The big 4 waited ( banks) wanted 25bps cut last time and either kept rates at current levels or raised them. Then China throws this RRR crapola at us. The Australian dollar is killing EXPORTERS, (WAY OVERVALUED)!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:57 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Yen. I'll take that bet.  The RRR cut is bearish.  AUD has a fat 1.08 resistance (a lot of sellers at the top), generally the market has topped.  China is scary because we can't read the data just the sentiment.  I imagine hedge funds are sending reps over there to gauge how bad the slowdown will be, so far from reports it's bad.  A potential sub-prime mess starting, one rumor is that there is widespread balance sheet destruction through the banking system (bad loans overkill), hence the BIG cut.

On top of that is the EZ banking crisis, and we know the ECB is pumping straight into the bond markets and they will keep the CDS market liquid once Greece exits (finally), rates will blow out and I think we will have our LEhman x1000 event soon...Equities will sell because the correction (starting now) will turn to a panic Algo's momo selling etc

So yeah RBA will cut and 50 looks tasty.  AUD will sink.  I have been killed so many times on that trade.  This time...payback.  Plus i am cash short (futures) on Europe/US indexes.  

I think Germany is stuffed politically, the President stepping down is just a pebble in the pond, but I think it will turn into a major wave.  Greece WILL be cut loose.  No doubt there, bailout or not.  They are preparing.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:09 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Options and huge protection above (certain levels). Look at the last parabolic daily roughly a week ago. The weeklies are stretched and dailies are pathetic. AUD is due for a dump!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:12 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

speaking of Australian markets the ASX200 is being gamed by algo/hft trades right now.  amusing the watch.  they can't figure out if a RRR cut by China is bullish or bearish

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:02 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Look at the Shanghai Exchange! It melds perfectly with the " Baltic Dry". I don't have the time to deal with it. You may become the 17th Billionaire Slewie. I'll borrow your Jets? Slewie the next Onassis?!

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