As WTI Passes $105, Guardian Says Iran "Military Action Likely", Would Send Crude Soaring

Tyler Durden's picture

Between the Chinese 'surprise' RRR and the Iran export halt to UK and France (and escalating tensions), Oil prices are off to the races this evening. WTI front-month futures have just broken $105 (now up more than 10% in the last two weeks), the highest levels in over nine months and just 8% shy of the 5/2/11 post-recession peak just under $115. Brent (priced in EUR) remains off last week's intraday highs (as EUR strengthens) but still above the pre-recession peak but in USD it traded just shy of $121 - well above last week's peak. Of course, this will be heralded as a sign of demand pressure from a 'growing' global economy rather than the margin-compressing, implicit-taxation, consumer-spending-crushing supply constraint for Europe and the US that it will become in the not too distant future. As we post, The Guardian is noting that US officials are commenting that "Sanctions are all we've got to throw at the problem. If they fail then it's hard to see how we don't move to the 'in extremis' option." The impact of any escalation from here is gravely concerning with PIMCO's $140 minimum and SocGen's $150-and-beyond Brent prices rapidly coming into focus - and for those pinning their hopes on the Saudis coming to the rescue (and fill the Iranian output gap), perhaps the news that our Middle-East 'allies' cut both production and exports in December will stymie any euphoria.

From The Guardian: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making military action likely

Growing view that strike, by Israel or US, will happen
• 'Sweet spot' for Israeli action identified as September-October
• White House remains determined to give sanctions time

"It's not that the Israelis believe the Iranians are on the brink of a bomb. It's that the Israelis may fear that the Iranian programme is on the brink of becoming out of reach of an Israeli military strike, which means it creates a 'now-or-never' moment," he said.

"That's what's actually driving the timeline by the middle of this year. But there's a countervailing factor that [Ehud] Barak has mentioned – that they're not very close to making a decision and that they're also trying to ramp up concerns of an Israeli strike to drive the international community towards putting more pressure on the Iranians."

Chart: Bloomberg

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TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

If he took the broomstick out of his ass, he might not be in so much 'pane'.


Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

You are a Provocateer(spelling)? and/or a Govt plant....

But definately an Idiot.

jeff montanye's picture


though provocateer has interesting associations: privateer, racketeer, mouseketeer.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Good thing the Crusades brought peace to the region.

Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

No the Dark Ages were some of man's best days, I was just reading that the avg roman farmer was much more prosperous during them than during the empire. Oh yea I read it here on

Good thing the former eastern bloc, parts of latin america and parts of asia haven't blown by the middle east the the last 100yrs despite not finding oil.

trav7777's picture

how is any of this our problem?

Let the desert jockeys all fight it out amongst each other.  If the joos win or lose, who cares?

LetThemEatRand's picture

This is our problem because the oligarchs you support want more oil to feed their machine.  The whole nuclear thing is completely irrelevant, but it works great for the blood hungry sheep.


tmosley's picture

It's funny, I had never thought of it as Trav supporting the status quo, but rather just Trav wanting everyone that wasn't him to die.  Come to think of it, it makes perfect sense now.

You're an ok guy Rand, even if your ideology is poisonous.

LetThemEatRand's picture

My ideology is freedom from the oligarchs.  Then again, it's not really an ideology because I think the solutions are extremely complicated and difficult to implement.  They certainly involve the little guys banding together to fight the power by sheer number.  that's poison to many.

Even after signing the Magna Carta, the King of England tried to revoke it.  He signed it because he was under the gun.   Kind of like the oligarchs that let America exist for a couple of hundred years.

DaveyJones's picture

"They certainly involve the little guys banding together to fight the power by sheer number." - funny, most solutions have that formula

trav7777's picture

the oligarchs *I* support? WTF are you smoking, man?

Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Must use that unicorn piss to fire up the computer.

cjbosk's picture

Caliphate, coming to a US city near you...

When the tar babies are cutting the heads off of people in our back yards it will most certainly be "our problem"...

JOYFUL's picture

head's cut off?

Can't be as big a problem as is let on, since you definitely runnin around without one, yet still able to perform basic tasks like typing...even if at a reduced neural capacity.

Kinda handy, havin your brain where your ass supposed to be ain't it!

cjbosk's picture

Typical Libtard diarrhea . You sound really smart you genius you

sun tzu's picture

They can't cut heads off here or in Europe unless our corrupt governments willingly allow them to immigrate here. 

trav7777's picture

cease immigration.  End of problem.  Enforce law.

When white backlash comes, it is going to be very ugly for everyone in the way.  White people, unlike muslims and joos and all the other agitators, really do know how to kill.

Bananamerican's picture

ok have officially jumped the shark a Klan robe

trav7777's picture

how the fuck is that relevant?  The ME was fucked up and WE DIDN'T CARE.  Nor should we.

LetThemEatRand's picture

The oligarchs want to own it.  It's what they do.  It's all a big super market to them.  

trav7777's picture

is there ANYTHING you just said that I haven't explained in great detail 1000 times already?

Do you honestly think I was asking you for an explanation as to why we will inevitably invade Iran?

The post I responded to wasn't about Iran, it was about Israel.

DaveyJones's picture

Some arrogance is built on knowledge. Other forms have a complicated, darker genesis 

Element's picture


The ME was fucked up and WE DIDN'T CARE.  Nor should we.


You heartless bastard! ... you obviously don't have shares in Lockheed Martin.

obelisks's picture

Israel this and Israel that ! I'm totally fed up of the world affairs being dominated by

what 6 million people want and don't want. I share your view that I don't think anyone would give a damn

RichardP's picture

So, you think all principles are the same and there is no point in distinguishing among them.

Not.  Some principles are better than others.  Some behaviors are better than others.  Some world views are better than others.  It is a worthwhile activity to distinguish among them.

If you respond, be careful to not respond to what I am not saying.

trav7777's picture

uh, you didn't respond to what he WAS saying.  Your entire post is a non sequitur, so STFU

walküre's picture

Correct. Just like nobody cared about another FBI patsy trying to bring terrorism to the US. This time they used an alleged suicide bomber wanting to blow up Congress? Really? Who would have cared?

FBI the King's new jesters?

StychoKiller's picture

A large group of Americans would have applauded if he had succeeded at blowing up Congress...

JPMorgan's picture

I think the US will need a ' V for Vendetta ' moment in the future if it is too be saved.

A act of home grown terrorism against a fascist government that the suppressed 99% will come out and applaud and support.

lynnybee's picture

I had a dream Israel was wiped off the map in a world war and nobody cared.   ... that's strange, i've had that exact same dream !

LetThemEatRand's picture

Mary and Joseph.... I need another glass of wine!  Nevermind, I got it.  P.S.  I'm just jealous.  

Troll Magnet's picture

jesus would say: those fuckers had me killed. fuck'em!

UP Forester's picture

jesus would say:  de shrubs a leetle shorter, meester?

Kiwi Pete's picture

Senor, make mine a double Margarita.

ThatGuyEhler's picture

He would remind us that if we looked a little more closely at Genesis, and did some extra research, we would realize that the "Jews" in Israel are not the real Jews, to whom the land of Israel was given. Look it up. As a Christian, I would have absolutely no problem getting rid of Israel and giving it back to the real BIOLOGICAL Jews - the Palestinians.

mayhem_korner's picture

"As a Christian"


I don't recognize your sentiments as being Christian.  Revisit the parable of the Good Samaritan (Luke 10), where Jesus explains to the Scribe (who in the parable is represented by the man left for dead) "which of these three was like a neighbor to the man who fell into the hands of the robbers?"

Jesus came for Jews and Gentiles alike.  Sin entered the world, and every man in it, through one man (Adam) and was soaked up on the cross by another (Jesus, the "second Adam").  Thus anyone who follows Jesus is part of the new-covenant body and nation of "Israel."

The distinction you make is irrelevant to Jesus, for as Paul writes in Romans 3:22-23 "there is no difference, for ALL have sinned and fall short of the glory of God, and are redeemed by Christ."


ThatGuyEhler's picture

All I am saying is that many Christians would defend Israel's right to exist quite vigilantly, however it's really the Palestinians land. I know that God came for both the Jews and the non-Jewish (Gentiles). But what does that have to do with the argument over who owns the land of Palestine?

LetThemEatRand's picture

Even the Bible is open to interpretation and spin. But surely we can have the objective Rule of Law advocated by the Randers.

Troll Magnet's picture

jews don't own any land. they never have. why the fuck don't we understand this FACT? judaism is a fucking religion ie FICTION. they have no right to anything. they could give israel to a bunch of tibetan monks for all i care. just leave americans out of it!

SumSUN's picture

Nobody REALLY owns land.  We use it until we die.  Why can't we all share and get along?

RichardP's picture


Why would you want to share and get along with infidels?

walküre's picture

but you're wrong! jews own ALL THE LANDS of the world by now! well, maybe not China - yet.

who owns the banks that hold all the property title?

mayhem_korner's picture

Even the Bible is open to interpretation and spin.


Yes, but there is only one Truth.

RichardP's picture

The truth exists, even though we may not know what it is.

silverbullion's picture

You're right, the truth exists, absolute truth I should add. If one gets out of a car wreck and think you're in shock, then you will be even more shocked when facing the cold hard facts which make up absolute truth. Unfortunately the majority of people continue to reject truth and deny its existence. This is why million upon millions of people are ending up in the abyss after dying the physical death here on earth... they damn themselves by believing lies, while each and everyone's motto should be: Prove all things!

mayhem_korner's picture

But what does that have to do with the argument over who owns the land of Palestine?


I may have misunderstood what you were saying.  I was responding to your comment that you would "get rid of Israel."   I read that to mean forcibly/violently, which doesn't sync with "love thy neighbor" and "love thine enemies."  I wasn't weighing in on the who-should-occupy-the-land question.

Regrets if it was a misplaced comment.