As WTI Passes $105, Guardian Says Iran "Military Action Likely", Would Send Crude Soaring

Tyler Durden's picture


Between the Chinese 'surprise' RRR and the Iran export halt to UK and France (and escalating tensions), Oil prices are off to the races this evening. WTI front-month futures have just broken $105 (now up more than 10% in the last two weeks), the highest levels in over nine months and just 8% shy of the 5/2/11 post-recession peak just under $115. Brent (priced in EUR) remains off last week's intraday highs (as EUR strengthens) but still above the pre-recession peak but in USD it traded just shy of $121 - well above last week's peak. Of course, this will be heralded as a sign of demand pressure from a 'growing' global economy rather than the margin-compressing, implicit-taxation, consumer-spending-crushing supply constraint for Europe and the US that it will become in the not too distant future. As we post, The Guardian is noting that US officials are commenting that "Sanctions are all we've got to throw at the problem. If they fail then it's hard to see how we don't move to the 'in extremis' option." The impact of any escalation from here is gravely concerning with PIMCO's $140 minimum and SocGen's $150-and-beyond Brent prices rapidly coming into focus - and for those pinning their hopes on the Saudis coming to the rescue (and fill the Iranian output gap), perhaps the news that our Middle-East 'allies' cut both production and exports in December will stymie any euphoria.

From The Guardian: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making military action likely

Growing view that strike, by Israel or US, will happen
• 'Sweet spot' for Israeli action identified as September-October
• White House remains determined to give sanctions time

"It's not that the Israelis believe the Iranians are on the brink of a bomb. It's that the Israelis may fear that the Iranian programme is on the brink of becoming out of reach of an Israeli military strike, which means it creates a 'now-or-never' moment," he said.

"That's what's actually driving the timeline by the middle of this year. But there's a countervailing factor that [Ehud] Barak has mentioned – that they're not very close to making a decision and that they're also trying to ramp up concerns of an Israeli strike to drive the international community towards putting more pressure on the Iranians."

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Mon, 02/20/2012 - 02:01 | 2176890 TheFourthStooge-ing
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If he took the broomstick out of his ass, he might not be in so much 'pane'.


Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:20 | 2176678 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

You are a Provocateer(spelling)? and/or a Govt plant....

But definately an Idiot.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:50 | 2176728 jeff montanye
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though provocateer has interesting associations: privateer, racketeer, mouseketeer.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 09:43 | 2177181 SWRichmond
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You can be either an "agent provocateur":


or shop at "agent provocateur" (NSFW):


Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:03 | 2176321 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Good thing the Crusades brought peace to the region.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:11 | 2176357 Xkwisetly Paneful
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No the Dark Ages were some of man's best days, I was just reading that the avg roman farmer was much more prosperous during them than during the empire. Oh yea I read it here on

Good thing the former eastern bloc, parts of latin america and parts of asia haven't blown by the middle east the the last 100yrs despite not finding oil.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:29 | 2176424 trav7777
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how is any of this our problem?

Let the desert jockeys all fight it out amongst each other.  If the joos win or lose, who cares?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:34 | 2176435 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

This is our problem because the oligarchs you support want more oil to feed their machine.  The whole nuclear thing is completely irrelevant, but it works great for the blood hungry sheep.


Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:49 | 2176611 tmosley
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It's funny, I had never thought of it as Trav supporting the status quo, but rather just Trav wanting everyone that wasn't him to die.  Come to think of it, it makes perfect sense now.

You're an ok guy Rand, even if your ideology is poisonous.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:09 | 2176634 LetThemEatRand
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My ideology is freedom from the oligarchs.  Then again, it's not really an ideology because I think the solutions are extremely complicated and difficult to implement.  They certainly involve the little guys banding together to fight the power by sheer number.  that's poison to many.

Even after signing the Magna Carta, the King of England tried to revoke it.  He signed it because he was under the gun.   Kind of like the oligarchs that let America exist for a couple of hundred years.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 11:54 | 2177565 DaveyJones
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"They certainly involve the little guys banding together to fight the power by sheer number." - funny, most solutions have that formula

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 03:26 | 2176959 trav7777
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the oligarchs *I* support? WTF are you smoking, man?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:51 | 2176485 Xkwisetly Paneful
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Must use that unicorn piss to fire up the computer.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:13 | 2176541 cjbosk
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Caliphate, coming to a US city near you...

When the tar babies are cutting the heads off of people in our back yards it will most certainly be "our problem"...

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:27 | 2176799 JOYFUL
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head's cut off?

Can't be as big a problem as is let on, since you definitely runnin around without one, yet still able to perform basic tasks like typing...even if at a reduced neural capacity.

Kinda handy, havin your brain where your ass supposed to be ain't it!

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 14:49 | 2178111 cjbosk
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Typical Libtard diarrhea . You sound really smart you genius you

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 02:58 | 2176944 sun tzu
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They can't cut heads off here or in Europe unless our corrupt governments willingly allow them to immigrate here. 

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 03:28 | 2176960 trav7777
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cease immigration.  End of problem.  Enforce law.

When white backlash comes, it is going to be very ugly for everyone in the way.  White people, unlike muslims and joos and all the other agitators, really do know how to kill.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 13:38 | 2177920 Bananamerican
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ok have officially jumped the shark a Klan robe

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:27 | 2176417 trav7777
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how the fuck is that relevant?  The ME was fucked up and WE DIDN'T CARE.  Nor should we.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:40 | 2176443 LetThemEatRand
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The oligarchs want to own it.  It's what they do.  It's all a big super market to them.  

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 03:29 | 2176961 trav7777
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is there ANYTHING you just said that I haven't explained in great detail 1000 times already?

Do you honestly think I was asking you for an explanation as to why we will inevitably invade Iran?

The post I responded to wasn't about Iran, it was about Israel.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 12:08 | 2177615 DaveyJones
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Some arrogance is built on knowledge. Other forms have a complicated, darker genesis 

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 09:34 | 2177167 Element
Element's picture


The ME was fucked up and WE DIDN'T CARE.  Nor should we.


You heartless bastard! ... you obviously don't have shares in Lockheed Martin.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:11 | 2176366 obelisks
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Israel this and Israel that ! I'm totally fed up of the world affairs being dominated by

what 6 million people want and don't want. I share your view that I don't think anyone would give a damn

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 01:10 | 2176852 RichardP
RichardP's picture

So, you think all principles are the same and there is no point in distinguishing among them.

Not.  Some principles are better than others.  Some behaviors are better than others.  Some world views are better than others.  It is a worthwhile activity to distinguish among them.

If you respond, be careful to not respond to what I am not saying.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 03:30 | 2176962 trav7777
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uh, you didn't respond to what he WAS saying.  Your entire post is a non sequitur, so STFU

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 02:14 | 2176901 walküre
walküre's picture

Correct. Just like nobody cared about another FBI patsy trying to bring terrorism to the US. This time they used an alleged suicide bomber wanting to blow up Congress? Really? Who would have cared?

FBI the King's new jesters?

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 04:50 | 2177001 StychoKiller
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A large group of Americans would have applauded if he had succeeded at blowing up Congress...

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 07:25 | 2177041 JPMorgan
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I think the US will need a ' V for Vendetta ' moment in the future if it is too be saved.

A act of home grown terrorism against a fascist government that the suppressed 99% will come out and applaud and support.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:12 | 2176369 lynnybee
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I had a dream Israel was wiped off the map in a world war and nobody cared.   ... that's strange, i've had that exact same dream !

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:45 | 2176473 Chimerican
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What would jesus say?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:30 | 2176560 LetThemEatRand
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Mary and Joseph.... I need another glass of wine!  Nevermind, I got it.  P.S.  I'm just jealous.  

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:30 | 2176701 Troll Magnet
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jesus would say: those fuckers had me killed. fuck'em!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:41 | 2176717 UP Forester
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jesus would say:  de shrubs a leetle shorter, meester?

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 02:14 | 2176900 Kiwi Pete
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Senor, make mine a double Margarita.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:53 | 2176622 ThatGuyEhler
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He would remind us that if we looked a little more closely at Genesis, and did some extra research, we would realize that the "Jews" in Israel are not the real Jews, to whom the land of Israel was given. Look it up. As a Christian, I would have absolutely no problem getting rid of Israel and giving it back to the real BIOLOGICAL Jews - the Palestinians.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:14 | 2176655 mayhem_korner
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"As a Christian"


I don't recognize your sentiments as being Christian.  Revisit the parable of the Good Samaritan (Luke 10), where Jesus explains to the Scribe (who in the parable is represented by the man left for dead) "which of these three was like a neighbor to the man who fell into the hands of the robbers?"

Jesus came for Jews and Gentiles alike.  Sin entered the world, and every man in it, through one man (Adam) and was soaked up on the cross by another (Jesus, the "second Adam").  Thus anyone who follows Jesus is part of the new-covenant body and nation of "Israel."

The distinction you make is irrelevant to Jesus, for as Paul writes in Romans 3:22-23 "there is no difference, for ALL have sinned and fall short of the glory of God, and are redeemed by Christ."


Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:20 | 2176677 ThatGuyEhler
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All I am saying is that many Christians would defend Israel's right to exist quite vigilantly, however it's really the Palestinians land. I know that God came for both the Jews and the non-Jewish (Gentiles). But what does that have to do with the argument over who owns the land of Palestine?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:26 | 2176690 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Even the Bible is open to interpretation and spin. But surely we can have the objective Rule of Law advocated by the Randers.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:40 | 2176714 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

jews don't own any land. they never have. why the fuck don't we understand this FACT? judaism is a fucking religion ie FICTION. they have no right to anything. they could give israel to a bunch of tibetan monks for all i care. just leave americans out of it!

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:14 | 2176775 SumSUN
SumSUN's picture

Nobody REALLY owns land.  We use it until we die.  Why can't we all share and get along?

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 01:16 | 2176854 RichardP
RichardP's picture


Why would you want to share and get along with infidels?

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 02:17 | 2176902 walküre
walküre's picture

but you're wrong! jews own ALL THE LANDS of the world by now! well, maybe not China - yet.

who owns the banks that hold all the property title?

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:27 | 2176800 mayhem_korner
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Even the Bible is open to interpretation and spin.


Yes, but there is only one Truth.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 01:17 | 2176858 RichardP
RichardP's picture

The truth exists, even though we may not know what it is.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 02:38 | 2176922 silverbullion
silverbullion's picture

You're right, the truth exists, absolute truth I should add. If one gets out of a car wreck and think you're in shock, then you will be even more shocked when facing the cold hard facts which make up absolute truth. Unfortunately the majority of people continue to reject truth and deny its existence. This is why million upon millions of people are ending up in the abyss after dying the physical death here on earth... they damn themselves by believing lies, while each and everyone's motto should be: Prove all things!

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 04:54 | 2177002 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Prove that you have some compassion:

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 09:09 | 2177127 silverbullion
silverbullion's picture

LOL Should I follow your lead? :-)

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:32 | 2176804 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

But what does that have to do with the argument over who owns the land of Palestine?


I may have misunderstood what you were saying.  I was responding to your comment that you would "get rid of Israel."   I read that to mean forcibly/violently, which doesn't sync with "love thy neighbor" and "love thine enemies."  I wasn't weighing in on the who-should-occupy-the-land question.

Regrets if it was a misplaced comment.

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