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As WTI Passes $105, Guardian Says Iran "Military Action Likely", Would Send Crude Soaring

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Between the Chinese 'surprise' RRR and the Iran export halt to UK and France (and escalating tensions), Oil prices are off to the races this evening. WTI front-month futures have just broken $105 (now up more than 10% in the last two weeks), the highest levels in over nine months and just 8% shy of the 5/2/11 post-recession peak just under $115. Brent (priced in EUR) remains off last week's intraday highs (as EUR strengthens) but still above the pre-recession peak but in USD it traded just shy of $121 - well above last week's peak. Of course, this will be heralded as a sign of demand pressure from a 'growing' global economy rather than the margin-compressing, implicit-taxation, consumer-spending-crushing supply constraint for Europe and the US that it will become in the not too distant future. As we post, The Guardian is noting that US officials are commenting that "Sanctions are all we've got to throw at the problem. If they fail then it's hard to see how we don't move to the 'in extremis' option." The impact of any escalation from here is gravely concerning with PIMCO's $140 minimum and SocGen's $150-and-beyond Brent prices rapidly coming into focus - and for those pinning their hopes on the Saudis coming to the rescue (and fill the Iranian output gap), perhaps the news that our Middle-East 'allies' cut both production and exports in December will stymie any euphoria.

From The Guardian: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making military action likely

Growing view that strike, by Israel or US, will happen
• 'Sweet spot' for Israeli action identified as September-October
• White House remains determined to give sanctions time

"It's not that the Israelis believe the Iranians are on the brink of a bomb. It's that the Israelis may fear that the Iranian programme is on the brink of becoming out of reach of an Israeli military strike, which means it creates a 'now-or-never' moment," he said.

"That's what's actually driving the timeline by the middle of this year. But there's a countervailing factor that [Ehud] Barak has mentioned – that they're not very close to making a decision and that they're also trying to ramp up concerns of an Israeli strike to drive the international community towards putting more pressure on the Iranians."

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:46 | 2176730 chump666
chump666's picture

short china via Canada and Australia, both those economies will implode.  housing bubbles.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:54 | 2176744 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I'm frozen in the corner of tim  e! e             /

 

/

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 02:27 | 2176915 walküre
walküre's picture

at $105 oil the Canucks won't starve

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:33 | 2176226 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

Bull.

This is about compensating the oil companies for dropping fuel prices before Christmas to pump retail shopping, and help O'man to get re-elected.

Just the barb in a fishhook, after everyone has run up the charge card, the oil companies are graciously permitted to pump the prices at the pump to pay for this generousity.

Once the Democrat convention sets in, the prices will be graciously dropped to again line up the oil companies behind the O'man.

Corruption is wonderful.  If you have the wallet to pay for it.

 

To perhaps put an even finer point on this "oil will go up with war".  Bull again.  When Desert Storm II was launched, oil prices actually dropped.  Pumping prices ain't about war.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:17 | 2176384 Idiot Savant
Idiot Savant's picture

The president is a hood ornament and you're a fucking moron.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:22 | 2176762 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

100% idiot. 0% savant.

Show me where the comment gave O'man credit for anything.  Come to think of it, Oman may have more with our elections than O'man.

When someone bows down in front of someone, who is in charge?  The bower, or the bowee?

http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR_YzFMNRREPhzN3bPqWTQys91v-3xJi...

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 03:07 | 2176947 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Perhaps TPTB want to keep the same hood ornament for the next 4 years. He can do what the fuck he wants and nobody will criticize him for fear of being labeled a racist. Look at what happened with Libya. It's easier for a left-wing nobel peace prize winner to start wars than for a right-wing cowboy to start wars. TPTB figured that one out after 8 years of shrubby and anti-war protests. Whatever happened to those anti-war protesters? What happened to Ted Koppel's Nightline body count? The Repubs can't criticize him because they supported war under shrubby. The Dems won't criticize him because he's their man. TPTB have a free hand at starting wars now. 

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:31 | 2176227 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Ahhh and our Chinese friends cut their Bank capital ratios ..... again!!! Hmhmhmhmhmhm....:)))!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:36 | 2176242 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Gold, bitchez

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:49 | 2176482 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Long silver, home-based business and my two 12-speed bikes ($140 total spend). Can't wait for the weather to warm up a little more so my monthly gas bill drops by 80-90%. Don't spend much now anyhow, but it always feels good when I sip by any gas station and wave to the sheeple spending $50-80 bucks on a fill-up.

Fuck ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP and their fucking record profits.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:05 | 2176519 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

I have a Geo Metro I can fill up for 20 bucks , it gets 52 to the gallon

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 04:04 | 2176979 trav7777
trav7777's picture

it doesn't have batteries and get 10 less MPG, therefore YOU ARE A TERRIST

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:38 | 2176243 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Bernanke says 2% inflation per day in the price of crude is good for the economy.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:39 | 2176247 f16hoser
f16hoser's picture

Fucking Israeli's. They want this and they're dragging Obummer down with them. Enough is enough. Iran, in the big scheme of things, is harmless. Ben Bernanke is more of a threat to the world than Iran is.....

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:09 | 2176529 oldman
oldman's picture

Hey Hoser,
There is no way to drag obama down.
I left the US in November and have not heard his name spoken since that time. No one else except americans remember who he is---after being so hopeful for a real president in the US, they have just shrugged their shoulders and moved on.
Haven't you noticed how the rerst of the world gives bthe US the finger? Get off that couch, turn off that TV, and let the MSM babble, but no one cares anymore---the other nations are moving on and only the anglos are left at the station.
I know, you'll nuke us and 'kill'em all'
Go ahead---we don't give a fuck.
Thank you for your inspiration see you in the next world
om

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:40 | 2176251 Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson's picture

Higher oil = more demand for petro dollars.  Print away Bernank.  Print away.  You have been cleared for takeoff.

The ECB's balance sheet is making you look like a p_ssy Ben.  Take it up another trillion.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:51 | 2176281 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

I'll see your trillion, and raise you a gabazillion!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:55 | 2176291 tickhound
tickhound's picture

All your oil are belong to us.  No, all your oil belongs to us, bitch.  No, all your oil are belong to us.  No, bitch, you're not listenin'...

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:40 | 2176254 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Who is the Ginger doing the dishing?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:43 | 2176255 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Fracking for crude is too slow, too labor intensive. It won't feed our hungry SUVs (with iMax sensurround entertainment).

We need to think big. Real big. And quick. 

Answer? Let's carpet bomb every shale structure from sea to shining sea and collect the crude from the bomb craters. Slurrrp. 

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:38 | 2176457 FrankThinkTank
FrankThinkTank's picture

Gasoline demand is at a low not seen in 20 years. The prius drivers arent helping when we've got a commodity denominated in an inflated fiat, and the lowest production capacity in 30 years.

As much as you want to blame the SUVs, you simply cant.  

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:36 | 2176566 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The fact that we still have giant SUVs, and that we allowed the loophole in the law that permitted them to be licensed as automobiles with truck mileage is a direct antecedent of where we are today. 

SUVs stand as a symbol of what was wrongheaded with the thinking for the last 40 years of successive energy crises. And Detroit based it's entire comeback strategy from the dead on the SUV. 

Gasoline consumption is down because we're in a downward spiraling economy where demand is tanking in part due to soaring costs for raw materials and energy. Which also forces squeezed businesses to raise prices despite constrained consumers and keep the workforce lean.

Rather than save more, we drilled more and burned it faster. Guess what? We're gonna do it again. 

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 06:51 | 2177033 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

The problem isn't what the law allows or disallows.

You seem to think government is the answer to the problems, if we would only listen to you and get it right for once.

Government is the problem.

If gas is going into shortage, the price will rise. When it is very high priced, career moms will no longer be driving 11 passenger SUVs to work. The problem solves itself.

It's like copy paper, and the BS about save a tree. If there was a shortage of trees, copy paper would be expensive. It's not. Copy paper is made from pulp trees that grow like weeds, they are farmed. Not grandpa's 100 year old oak tree.

Whale oil was the number 1 lamp oil desired in the world, as they killed off the whales the price went up and up and up, to crazy levels. Then they found substitutes.

Without the government stepping in and making "Whale Oil Lamp Fuel Standards".

Get the government out of the way, both in regulations and in welfare for energy producers, and let the market sort itself out. 

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:42 | 2176260 Platinum_Investor
Platinum_Investor's picture

Let the party begin.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:45 | 2176265 Silberadler
Silberadler's picture

Uhh,

sorry - but ...

I am not exactly sure what your problem is.

 

Unleaded Premium @ $4.75 / gal = cheap

very cheap.

Just passed my local gas station here in Southern Germany.

Unleaded Premium @ 1.63 EUR / Liter = $8.15 /gal.

 

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:47 | 2176272 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

But our hungry SUVs drink twice as much. So we're even when you think about it. 

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:54 | 2176285 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

That's precisely what the ROW doesn't understand. In southern Germany, you live where you work. In the Idiot States of Amerikkka, you live 50 miles from where you work. Gotta stay in your "hometown", you know, with all your friends and family.

Friends and family. How overrated can you get?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:01 | 2176312 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Friends don't let friends work and drive

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:56 | 2176632 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I think I heard somewhere that the average American doesn't have one single friend outside of work.

Pretty true for me.  All of my friends are either current or former colleages who at the most distant worked on the other side of the (very large) building from me.

But then, my commute is only 7 miles.  Maybe I should have moved out into some God forsaken desert town so I could be close to family and friends, lol.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 04:06 | 2176981 trav7777
trav7777's picture

I'd be hard pressed to believe you have a single friend period.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:08 | 2176351 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 What about a MBZ or Cayenne Hybred C/E? Hell Obama is subsidizing Tesla and that Swedish piece of crap that just shut down.

   Slap some solar panels on your " Big Wheel" to haul Turkey Vultures home!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:17 | 2176385 Van Halen
Van Halen's picture

Obama is right! What would really help our economy AND benefit the environment is a high-speed choo-choo!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:20 | 2176395 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I like my Soylent green with Tobasco, and a shot of Methonal!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:25 | 2176409 Van Halen
Van Halen's picture

Wonderful! Now would you like that beamed to the chip in your head or the one on your right hand?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:34 | 2176440 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Be creative #1!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:55 | 2176626 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

Tastes like chicken.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:07 | 2176647 oldman
oldman's picture

Van Halen,
CONGRATULATIONS!!!!!!!!

I have never seen this on ZH:

"Obama is right!"

You deserve whatever we can afford to give you.
You really have the huevos!

Thanks om

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:56 | 2176292 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

How is the weather over there? You can practically see from side to side! Driving across Germany is like driving the entire state of California!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:56 | 2176294 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Well -- sure.

But you can go a lot farther with your gas because you drive kilometers instead of miles.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:57 | 2176303 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Diesel?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:10 | 2176363 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

the main difference in gas prices between Europe and the US is the tax rate. The US has a much lower rate of tax.

If taxed at the same rate as Germany, the prices would be much more similar.

Of course, the US has a completely shit mass transit system and no cross country high speed rail so a higher tax would be hard to justify.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:22 | 2176400 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

We build more highways so there will be more room for less cars.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 01:45 | 2176876 Matt
Matt's picture

I don't understand why people driving cars should be subsidizing people riding public transit.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 11:21 | 2177452 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

because without public transit, you wouldn't be "driving" your car...you'd just be sitting in it.

Can you even begin to image the kind of traffic jams there would be in London if there were no public transit? If EVERYONE were driving?

Just wait til the Olympics gets there. the clusterfuck of traffic will be epic even with public transit.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 15:27 | 2178252 Matt
Matt's picture

That's something of a false choice, isn't it? You are saying without gas tax on people driving their own cars, public transit would not exist at all.

I am saying that public transit should charge enough that it funds itself, rather than relying on charging other people who are not using it.

If people had to sit in their car for 2 hours to get to work and pay two hours wages for a parking spot and then two more hours to get home, versus 15 minutes on public transit each way in exchange for an hour's wage, more people would ride the transit and it would balance out.

Why should people who drive cars pay for the people to ride the bus or train? Why should people who save for retirement pay for those who didn't? Why should non-smokers pay for the healthcare costs of smokers? Why should successful car companies pay to bailout bankrupt car companies? Why should successful banks pay to bailout bankrupt banks?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:35 | 2176446 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

Simple answer: When your society and economy was built decades ago around great commuting distances for work,  living in the far off comfortable suburbs,  and depending on long hauls for delivery of goods and services, all thanks to the good old days of cheap oil, then >$4.00 /gallon is a real gut wrench.

 

Just ordered 6  five gallon Nato fuel cans from Cheaper than Dirt--on back order, if that tells you anything.

 

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:03 | 2176511 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Got any old vehicles laying around?

Fill 'em up and add Sta-bil.

If folks can't get to the tank from below, they'll most likely leave them alone.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:52 | 2176617 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

Uhh,

sorry but...

not all of us drive diesel volkswagons. Some of us drive real cars like 69' Camaros and Hummers and stuff.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 07:02 | 2177035 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

It's called TAX. You voted for it. You want the welfare state. You have to pay for it. It is not because oil is more expensive for Germany to buy.

You have a self-inflicted high price.

Now, priced in 90% junk silver US legal tender coins, that $4.75 a gallon [it's a dollar cheaper or more where I live for premium - again, the TAX factor] is 19 cents in Mercury dimes, and your $8.15 a gallon is about 33 cents in Mercury dimes. That is the price for a gallon of premium in 1964 in the USA.

So you are getting bargain gas over there, given your tax structure. Think how expensive it would be if you had to defend your own country.

 Your money is becoming worth less. As is the dollar. I just don't see 19 cents a gallon premium in real money as a high price. I am paying 16 cents a gallon for premium in real money right now here where I live.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:33 | 2176431 Idiot Savant
Idiot Savant's picture

And you posted this piece of Israeli propaganda for what reason? Inbar has the title all wrong, it's a standoff between Israel and Iran. 

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:00 | 2176631 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

@ King_of_simpletons/

That user name suits you.

It very much the same as "the best turd in the toilet"

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:58 | 2176295 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

The EU is boosting credit enough to push up the Brent price but not enough to bail out Greece and the other peripherals. (Dumb Nazis.)

Chindia demand is still smokin'.

The US does not set the marginal crude price any more, it doesn't waste ENOUGH!

A very high price (+ $147 Brent) would not last long as demand destruction would certainly follow. US economy is built around $20/barrel crude, not $120/barrel crude.

A high price (+ $128 Brent) would be a trend change and a short-term bull market in crude. What next? Demand destruction. Even w/o the euro-generated 'debt crisis' the EU is losing its shirt on its crude imports: a half-trillion euros per year down the rathole. Instead of beating on the scapegoats (Greeks today, PortugalFranceSpainIreland tomorrow) better to beat on the Nazi auto manufacturers.

They are going down the toilet anyway. They cannot pay their own way.

Any actions against Iran would knock 20% off world crude production. That would cause a Great Crash that so many doomers predict/desire. Iran can close the Straits of Hormuz like 'that' (snaps fingers). A few sea mines, a few strategically positioned sunken ships, some rocket attacks on tankers and port facilities, terrorist blasts in barrooms in Kuwait, etc. would end oil exports from Iran, Kuwait, Iraq, KSA and UAE: 1973, 1979-83 shortfalls were on the order of 3-5%. Cuba ex-USSR was 20%. How do you ranch worms, again?

Sanctions against Iran are counterproductive, BTW. If Iranians were smart they would 'lease' some nuclear tipped missiles from the Russians and tell the Yanks to go fuck themselves.

 

Oh yea, one more thing: if crude crashes so does gold. That doesn't mean get rid of it, it just means the price of gold in various currencies will be lower.

 

 

 

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:33 | 2176433 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

TPTB have to know this thing is going to crash. 

Do the Derivatives and CDS, and for that matter the Bonds themselves, have Force Majeure clauses that allow "an out" in the event of war?

If so has anyone considered the impact?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:53 | 2176621 roccman
roccman's picture

ding ding - a winner

 

all the elites did was effect the timing of the global collapse of commerce through the use of ARMS set to adjust JUST AS OIL WAS PEAKING

 

think about it

 

the power down (read KILL OFF) was very much planned

 

i know - i know tin

 

and so were drones patroling american skies

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:50 | 2176615 roccman
roccman's picture

yep

 

peak oil is being defined by economic collapse

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:58 | 2176297 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

$10/gallon in Europe should go over well.

Oh they are  conditioned already to drive tuna cans and/or take mass transit?

That in no way shape or form speaks to personal liberty.

 

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:21 | 2176397 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

Hmmmm... could you explain your definition of "personal liberty"?  Not a term I am familiar with, is it interchangeable with the term "civil liberties"? Or perhaps it has another meaning?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:27 | 2176415 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Hmmm waiting for a mass transit schedule, driving tuna cans on wheels et al largely thanks to outrageous gas taxes aren't really a personal liberty killer at all.  Because the meaning of personal liberty isn't really clear or has another meaning entirely.

 

 

 

 

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:58 | 2176302 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Not to worry.  The Great Chairsatan says the Fed can counteract inflationary forces within 15 minutes.  That is less time than you need to switch to Geico...

Fed = FUBAR

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:11 | 2176367 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Funny. He's been saying that for 10 years and prices of everything you need keep going higher. 

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:17 | 2176383 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

The Great Chairsatan has boxed himself into a corner.  It wouldn't be too surprising if he tries to kick the can as far as he can and then offer to resign and quietly disappear before it all implodes so he doesn't look like the villain when the R-E-S-E-T button gets pressed.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:59 | 2176503 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

You mean, "do a Greenspan."

There, fixed it for ya.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:01 | 2176309 xcehn
xcehn's picture

Sweet spot for Israeli action identified as September-October

Spring is often cited too.

...if Israel is openly discussing a military strike, it is unlikely to be imminent. But if Israel goes radio silent—like it did when it attacked a suspected nuclear site in Iraq in 1981—that may be an early warning sign that a strike is nearing. 

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article29756.htm


Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:55 | 2176493 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

Tyler, I wish you could segregate responses to those that have some meaningful imput into the discussion , like this one, as opposed to others which are poor attempts at Stand Up comedy. I too have been guilty of this, and you can kick my ass into the garabage responses, but this comment by xchehn, supported by a source, whether accurate or not is more useful to me.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:48 | 2176608 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

Don't be lame! I read the comments, in part, to read the witty and sometimes downright hilarious comments.

KEEP EM COMING GUYS!

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:06 | 2176759 Falcon15
Falcon15's picture

Do not be a douche. Laughter is all that stands between many of us and insanity.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:09 | 2176354 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

We need to focus public attention elsewhere: today was Whitney Houston's burial and Kurt Cobain's anniversary both at the same time

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:44 | 2176470 navy62802
navy62802's picture

New episode of The Walking Dead tonight!! Woohoo! What Iran crisis?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:01 | 2176505 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Good show, I like " Mad Men", also!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:50 | 2176483 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

I'm just glad to still be on the other side of the grass.  27 and 48, what wastes of talent.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:15 | 2176375 Van Halen
Van Halen's picture

Phew! I'm glad we didn't Drill Baby Drill, go ahead with Keystone, or keep any of those offshore rigs that we got rid of! Obama was right! Green energy companies ARE profitable AND the way of the future! Now that everything is running on solar and wind, we can see that we never needed oil to begin with!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:37 | 2176452 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

We Just need your ISM's David Lee!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:17 | 2176386 q99x2
q99x2's picture

President's Day tomorrow. Time for BO to Duck and Cover. THEY like to do things on coincidental dates.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:19 | 2176391 Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

$250 oil at least. Why do you think JPM was handed 30 million bbl by Barry last year from our "emergency" storage stash (at only $92 a barrel, btw). The other half actually made it to the market.

Nomura says $250....I believe them.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:35 | 2176580 IQ 101
IQ 101's picture

$250 a barrel is not going to sell to burned out consumers (world wide)

the folks will be staying home, busting out the poker chips.

Will the Chinese and Indians be working double shifts to provide more STUFF for the west to consume?  No.

The Euro and Dollar may differ in alleged value as may the size of the US,Imperial gallon/liter/whatever, but when push comes to shove the working, consuming average Joe knows one or two things, A, If he has a job,he might not soon.

B. he had better batten down the hatches and start hoarding his Roubles,  yen or chucky cheese tokens.

The price will go up for a little while, robots demand it,

Demand can not go up, reality demands that much, gasoline is already at luxury/necessity prices for most people, globally.

Who will be holding all this oil in tankers and tank farms when this simple truth hits the markets?

Corporate oil can not stop producing for long, neither can nations, valuable,skilled workers will be lost, refineries and pipelines and rigs are all attention whores, not to be left in the cold.

Who has a taste for war now? the USA, it's Military, it's people? certainly not, nobody is buying the Towelistani with nuke and camel routine anymore, a certain end to the Obama show (sure,the Romney show could replace it seamlessly).

As an above poster stated, they have painted themselves into a corner.

Will it be Colonel Mustard, in the Library, with a Dagger, or

Osama jnr, in Detroit with an ex-Soviet suit case nuke ?

 

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 02:36 | 2176920 walküre
walküre's picture

Great summation. I picture your scenarios commencing at $150 oil.

$105 is raising eyebrows and sweat is starting to form on the collective political class.

$150 is game over for private and most public consumption of fuel. Governments are broke now. How are they supposed to fill the tanks of their public fleets at double gas prices?

FUBAR

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:23 | 2176401 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

So let's see...Saudi crude production drops, Iran embargoes exports, China imports hit a high... and just for kicks:

 

Feb 19 (Reuters) - A Friday fire that idled BP Plc's 225,000 barrel per day (bpd) Cherry Point, Washington, refinery was expected by market analysts on Sunday to lift gasoline prices on the U.S. West Coast in the coming weeks. [by 20 cents]

 

More tankers loaded with gasoline were also expected to move to the West Coast because of the idled BP plant, which is the third largest refinery in the region. Cargoes from Asian refineries are already said to be headed to the West Coast due to high fuel prices in California.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/19/usa-gasoline-bp-fire-idUSL2E8D...

 

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:46 | 2176477 navy62802
navy62802's picture

Jesus, the West Coast is where the prices are already over $4/gallon. That's gonna sting! Definitely not going to help the struggling CA economy.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:29 | 2176696 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

$4.09 here in the IE from $3.69 about 4 weeks ago.  Bend over.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:01 | 2176507 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

Cause of fire?

Accident?

Sabatoge to create an oil crisis to justify intervention in Iran? 

 

 

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:23 | 2176403 xela2200
xela2200's picture

So, would it make sense for China to start selling Treasuries to buy all the oil they can from Iran not to mention bail out their real estate market?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:23 | 2176404 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Don't worry be Happy. The yen is weakening, and soon Toyota will be KING again. Print slope heads! PRINT while you can.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:24 | 2176408 xela2200
xela2200's picture

yey! I can finally afford a leaf.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:23 | 2176407 Alpacanio
Alpacanio's picture

News flash! A Israeli attack on Iran will not happen in August,September or October. Nor will it happen in April,May or June. It WILL happen anyday between now and March 31st.

Yep...

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:25 | 2176411 xela2200
xela2200's picture

You got it.

When the you least expect it, expect it.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:29 | 2176419 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

No one expects the Spanish Inquisition!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tym0MObFpTI

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:26 | 2176692 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

Right about.....now!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:35 | 2176421 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

Attacks come on the new moon cycle to use the darkest of nights for aerial attack cover.

                                               

                                                        Feb. 21

                                                        March 22

                                                        April 21

                                                        May 20

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:17 | 2176545 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

It's either in a few days or March.

Or not at all.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:29 | 2176568 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

"Thirty days hath November...April, June, and November....All the rest have thirty-one, except for March, which has the BOMB."

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:01 | 2176751 Falcon15
Falcon15's picture

You do not need "darkest night" for stealth drone, missile, and high altitude bombing attacks. Besides, the Iranian air force consists of some very antiquated aircraft that are, from all reports, hardly air worthy. This is NOT Iraq. The attack will also not originate from the US. It will be an Israeli aggression. We'll just get dragged along for the ride, to "protect" our "ally" and "interests" in the region . YMMV.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 02:38 | 2176924 walküre
walküre's picture

March 20, Greek Default Day.

Nobody will even remember that it happened 2 days later when war breaks out with Iran.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 05:04 | 2177003 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

Very good point.

Much like many people do not remember what happened on September 10, 2001, but certainly remember September 11, 2001.

Hint: Rumsfeld stated that 2.3 trillion dollars was missing from the Pentagon on Sept. 10, 2001.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:31 | 2176426 Atomizer
Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:42 | 2176464 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture


Problem solved. I am front running an IPO for my new company. Combining food banks with the American bean farmers lobby, I am gathering all of the unemployed and undocumented aliens to food fullfillment centers. FEMA camps. Food Energy for Mother America camps.

There, they will be sustained on a nutritious bean diet, 24 / 7 / 365. While sitting at miles of work benches building " The American People's Aye Aye Siri  Phone ", connected to an elaborate plumbing systerm by "soft touch anal probes", otherwise unprofitable, unhappy, unemployed, homeless people will become useful to The American People. 

All results of the bean diet will be pumped to massive storage tanks for electricity generation for future generations of correctly voting electronic device addicted Amerikan sheeple to ensure the success of the Thousand Year Dr. Strangelove Amerikan Empire ! Problem Solved !

Send all of your money - in the form of silver and gold bullion only -  to me soonest so you can get in on the ground floor of this magnificent investment opportunity ! Listed on the New York Stock Exchange as " SGFIAJ " Save Gas, Fart In A Jar "

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:55 | 2176491 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

what a crock!

the american "officials" working this weekend must be more fuked up than tyler & slewie put together!

not that there's anything wrong with that...

It's Now or Never - Elvis

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:04 | 2176517 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I'll second that Slewie. When I finger the little "REd Dot" basement junking " Parasite", it's gonna get real interesting!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:47 | 2176577 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

L0L!!! 

i hope you're fingering more than parasites & trolls!

tyler put up a piece earlier about 4 major CBs printing:  china, japan, US, and ECB.  BOE and SNB didn't even make the cut!  so here we gotZ 6 major fiatscoZ printing in various combinations of 3 or 4, forever

  1. print to transfer wealth to fascist cronies
  2. price of WTI goes up
  3. blame fuking iran!
  4. L0L!!!

boy, we'll kill them for doing shit like this to us if its the last thing we doodoo! this is the level of theGuardian here, imo

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:06 | 2176646 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Is this " Kill Bill", FUCKING # # # 3 Slewie?

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:10 | 2176768 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

when the prop-wash sez that israel should attack iran NOW

and the reason is:  or it will be too late

[it's now or never~~~can you imagine israel singing that song to iran to "embrace" in blowing the fuk outa each other?  Hahaha!]

well, i guess the neo-cons and other puppets will start twitching and want to shoot somebody, but, personally, i find such "reasoning" neither logical nor compelling

 

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:16 | 2176544 AU5K
AU5K's picture

At least higher oil prices arent factored into CPI "Core" inflation figures, LOL.  Everyone will see $5/gallon but the government will tell us its just your imaganation, core inflation is flat, vote obama. 

 

Looks like a pretty clear inverted H+S on crude.  $130, minimum target. 

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:31 | 2176570 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 The MSM is not even addressing Memorial Day? WTF ? That is when people travel. They got lucky this winter.

 

  Ok, Know it alls. How many products does a barrel of light sweet crude yield? Hint) over 35 and under 50!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:59 | 2176636 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

nine!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:10 | 2176652 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

You are The Proud new owners of " Hodgies"!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:33 | 2176573 adr
adr's picture

Speculator driven bullshit once again. So China is trading for Iran's oil, oil the US doesn't buy anyway, which means China will be buying less oil from exchanges. Why pay inflated per barrel price in dollars when you can trade items for Iranian oil. US and European consumption is cratering so the price of oil increases??? Sorry I don't see a supply issue. In fact it looks like on the surface China making a grab for what ends up being cheaper Iranian supply should cause an even further increase in global stockpiles.

You want oil to go to $30 a barrel, change the rules to force delivery of any oil contract held for 30 days and ban the rollover into future contracts. 90%+ contracts are still held by traders who could never take delivery of a single barrel.

Based on demand oil shouldn't be $18 but anything above $35 is lunacy.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:45 | 2176597 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

lol. 

GM said it achieved double-digit jumps in five of its top 10 markets last year, including China. GM marked a 12.4 percent sales rise in Russia and a 10.4 percent rise in Brazil.... But it did even better in China, selling 2.35 million vehicles there, up 29 percent ....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/24/gm-sales-china_n_812934.html

Just cause you don't see it from your back porch don't mean it ain't happening elsewhere. It's a thirsty, thirsty world

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:12 | 2176657 IQ 101
IQ 101's picture

Thirsty for what? Huffington post, the huge fucking joke Huffington post?

Are you Greek, or, German?

The Huffington post, please, this is a joke right, Sarcasm, Parody, French farce, or are you actually quoting G.M. statistics compiled or published by the Huffington Post on Z.H.?

G.M. sez ????????

Lord,help us.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:53 | 2176743 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

 

You're not seeing the big picture. Maybe you don't want to. Open your eyes. 

 

Japan’s Trade Deficit Hits Record as Energy Imports Surge

 

Energy needs accounted for most of the gain in imports in January.

 “The deficit is still expanding against a background of increasing energy imports,” said Masaaki Kanno, chief Japan economist at JPMorgan Chase in Tokyo. “Unless we see a significant increase in the operating rate of nuclear power plants, eventually the rising cost of power will be translated to the corporations.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/20/business/global/japans-trade-deficit-h...

 

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 07:12 | 2177036 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

South Korea and Japan are major Iranian oil customers, and they are not boycotting or stopping. Keep that in mind.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:50 | 2176614 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

*ROTHSCHILDS say cashflow is low and war is on the list of GOOD money makers.

*ROTHSCHILDS say it has worked great more than one time.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:50 | 2176616 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

http://www.faster-faster.com/
The future is upon us. Plug yer bike into a portable solar panel and FTW! $10 gas, woot!

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 03:23 | 2176956 jomama
jomama's picture

i'm get that rigged onto my downhill bike!  looking for an affordable solar generator...

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:56 | 2176630 Coldfire
Coldfire's picture

Knock, knock.

Who's there?

Armageddon.

Armageddon who?

ARMAGEDDON OUT OF HERE!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:59 | 2176635 JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

From PIMCO:

"...In this case, we would expect prices could reach previous all-time highs of $145/bbl or even higher depending on issues with shipping. The IEA and Saudi Arabia can meet market needs, but the increase in uncertainty and the loss of spare capacity would affect pricing. In this case, after a few months, we would expect prices could fall back to $130 to $135/bbl range."

 

read full article:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/pimcos-4-iran-invasion-oil-price-scenarios...

This jives with Nomura ($250 oil) and many other analysts. What would happen to Western economies if oil rises to $140?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:09 | 2176649 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Is this where we sign up to be in the official jew haters club. I didn't see it posted but judging from the comments there must be a sign up page somewhere. I thought we were supposed to hate bankers and politicians and that the muslims are a peace loving religion. I'm soooo confused....and we are supposed to be against killin and stuff but now we are supposed to kill jews? This is just too hard!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:42 | 2176720 IQ 101
IQ 101's picture

I missed that post, I think the point is that nobody should be killing anyone who is going about their peacefull business, no harm , no foul.

No injured party, no crime.

Julio looks mean and tough, i must shoot him before he shoots me,mentality B.S.

Pre-emptive cowardice.

 

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:52 | 2176739 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Repost

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:17 | 2176667 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

This is wonderful news.  I just tuned up my V-8 Interceptor and have it covered and patiently waiting in the garage.  I have a semi load of Dinky Di dog food stockpiled, several pairs of football shoulder pads, a bladed boomerang, a shot gun with bad shells.   WWIII and mad max, here we come! 

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:23 | 2176684 linrom
linrom's picture

Why bother with Iran, it's no more a country than Iraq. It's present regime is driven to spent all its resource money on militarism and nuclear weapon development. It also funds private militias in Gaza and Lebanon. I have no doubt that US is funding Mujahideen. Time is running out on the Ayatollahs. Someday the black clothed tyrants will be the ones hanging from the cranes.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:24 | 2176686 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

So here's my life, Ladies & Gents.  Out & about to see the 2nd run Sherlock Holmes flick & notice the car has about 3/8's left in the tank.  Should I fill up now, or risk even higher prices next week?  Chevron is $4.09, was $4.07 Wednesday when I bought 10 gallons for my SUV beast.

Tell me what you would do, and I'll post the results and my actions later tonight.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:30 | 2176699 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Fuck it, fill the pig.

This piggie has 5 gallons, that piggie also has 5 gallons and they are named the Jerry family... so forth.

So many piggies...

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:44 | 2176726 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

I did.  $47 and change, 2nd such "investment" this week and didn't even fill up the SUV beast.  Glad she's a 6 cyl though.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:31 | 2176703 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Know  ( one person), Hates anyone on this site!  We are the Best of the Best! 

   GET MAD on Some Ones time! Not MINE! you people are my kind!          TRAMS>SMART>}

.

 


Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:38 | 2176711 Sizzurp
Sizzurp's picture

Hopefully this will wake folks up to the ineptitude of starting a shooting war with Iran.  Maybe they will even wake up and realize we don't need the war monger Sanitarium either.  If the Israelis go full retard and attack Iran, we are going to get immediate $10 gas minimum and rationing.  That will turn these fake green shoots crap brown in a hurry.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:42 | 2176719 chump666
chump666's picture

"Iranian Admiral Habibollah Sayari said the naval deployment to the Mediterranean would show "the might" of the Islamic republic to regional countries, and also convey Tehran's "message of peace and friendship," according to the Fars news agency."

Israel/Iran war on the cards.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iran-sends-warships-into-mediterranean-...

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:53 | 2176742 chump666
chump666's picture

and it will be a stand up fight.    line drawn.  missiles tossed back and forth, aerial battles, drone battles, navel battles...etc etc etc

Also, the first of the 'dirty' wars. i.e all out cycler warfare, infrastructure hacks, essential amenities disrupted.  Already there is a FX/economic war taking place trying to force more inflation on the Iranians.  

It will be bad.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:03 | 2176754 moondog
moondog's picture

My fear is that Chinese/Russian support will come from their cyber warfare divisions.

The Chinese have been hacking US .gov infrastructure for years. How vulnerable is our military and energy infrastructure I wonder?

This may be the biggest mistake that the US and Israel ever made in underestimating support for Iran.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:40 | 2176811 chump666
chump666's picture

lock it in.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 03:17 | 2176953 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

One half inch separates the Military Net from the civilian net.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:50 | 2176736 oldman
oldman's picture

Tyler, why is it that each time I vote up or dpwn that the page has to reload; am I doing it wrong?
Frustrated because of a wireless connection on a modem in another banana republic om

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:57 | 2176745 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Sounds like you have JavaScript turned off. It's something you have to put up with if you want JavaScript turned off because of the advertisements.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:04 | 2176752 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

I fear the day when the Iranians and North Koreans are gone as a "threat" to the "free" world. Who will the bankers vilify when they control every government? People like us most likely. I try not to think about it.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 01:05 | 2176849 linrom
linrom's picture

This does not justify support for Iran. Look at Hugo Chavez,. A so called Latin-Am revolutionary in a Catholic country supporting Muslim tyrant like Ahamadinejad?

 

 

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 10:13 | 2177270 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Its called an anti-imperialist (US) front.

Even French king, Francois I, a true catholic,  allied with Souliman the Magnificent of Ottoman empire (infidel moslem), against Holy roman emperor Charles V Hapsburg; then true king of the world.

'Cos Charles was barking down their combined underwear!

Like Ahmed Nijad/Chavez feel about good ole USA!

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:34 | 2176767 ekm
ekm's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUPEVJqO2Nk&feature=player_embedded

Hey Day Traders

Click up there and learn some geo-policital macro. It may come handy.

 I don't necessarily agree with the analysis, but you may all learn that Israel+Saudi Arabia+USA+Europe are all ALLIES against Iran.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6T1hQnLl64&list=UUrmm_7RDZJeQzq2-wvmjueg&index=16&feature=plcp

Right after 7th minute pay attention to 50% currency devaluation in Iran and sky rocketting food pricing.

One more, for you.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:13 | 2176774 yogibear
yogibear's picture

People are used to $4.00/gal gas. Onto the next price point, $5.00/gal gas and then onto $6.00.

Americans will just say "charge it!".

Add in the 20 to 30% (or more)  inflation in food price, it's definitely having an impact.

With Bernanke and the federal reserve printing this should be one huge inflation party! 

While both Bernanke and the government both deny the inflation .Transitory according to the fed.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:17 | 2176784 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Yes! 

And Ben can print more to compensate for the increased charging to pay for gasoline! And food! 

Makes sense, right? 

After all, if we're all millionaires and billionaires then everything will seem cheap, cheap, cheap! 

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 03:14 | 2176950 jomama
jomama's picture

the trucking industry alone would be hit hard by 6$ gas

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:24 | 2176794 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

Yes, we are having another lovely little war in the ME, R.S.V.P.....

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:31 | 2176803 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Damn I "Repect",  Knocking IRAN down! Let's get it done!

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:41 | 2176814 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

And there is no inflation, just tell yourself that when you fill the tank kids, and when your groceries and delivery prices and airline tickets and the price of anything that remotely depends upon oil goes up:  repeat after me -  "Phew!  I'm glad we don't have inflation too!".

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:41 | 2176815 ekm
ekm's picture

And by the way, WTI is getting higher by the weak hands.

Think, if Iran has less customers there will be less competition for their crude oil (80% of their exports - stop and think).

Then the remaining customers will have the upper hand and demand lower prices. I think this is all propaganda, but in case the iranians lost their brain remnants, I bet right now China is making deals with Iran for much lower prices. Iran would be forced to do so in order to keep the oil rigs working and to avoid back up in the pipeline.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:43 | 2176819 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

What's good for the propagoose is good for the propaganda

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:44 | 2176821 ekm
ekm's picture

Ok. It's your risk, it's your money. Good luck to you. Just make sure you're the first one to cop out once all weak hands are in as suckers.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 01:00 | 2176842 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Leave the Guy Alone! EKM is Reasonable.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 01:04 | 2176847 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

ok, ok! I actually think there's a chance he could be right. But watch, every time crude prices drop a bit, there's demand right there to snatch it up

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 01:08 | 2176851 ekm
ekm's picture

Which kind of demand?

- Consumption

- Hoarding

My money is on Hoarding until they run out of storage space, then DUMP.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 01:24 | 2176861 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Both, I think. But think of how many people are on the road for the very first time in China, India, Brazil in the last 10 years. Numbers have gotten big

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