As WTI Passes $105, Guardian Says Iran "Military Action Likely", Would Send Crude Soaring

Tyler Durden's picture


Between the Chinese 'surprise' RRR and the Iran export halt to UK and France (and escalating tensions), Oil prices are off to the races this evening. WTI front-month futures have just broken $105 (now up more than 10% in the last two weeks), the highest levels in over nine months and just 8% shy of the 5/2/11 post-recession peak just under $115. Brent (priced in EUR) remains off last week's intraday highs (as EUR strengthens) but still above the pre-recession peak but in USD it traded just shy of $121 - well above last week's peak. Of course, this will be heralded as a sign of demand pressure from a 'growing' global economy rather than the margin-compressing, implicit-taxation, consumer-spending-crushing supply constraint for Europe and the US that it will become in the not too distant future. As we post, The Guardian is noting that US officials are commenting that "Sanctions are all we've got to throw at the problem. If they fail then it's hard to see how we don't move to the 'in extremis' option." The impact of any escalation from here is gravely concerning with PIMCO's $140 minimum and SocGen's $150-and-beyond Brent prices rapidly coming into focus - and for those pinning their hopes on the Saudis coming to the rescue (and fill the Iranian output gap), perhaps the news that our Middle-East 'allies' cut both production and exports in December will stymie any euphoria.

From The Guardian: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making military action likely

Growing view that strike, by Israel or US, will happen
• 'Sweet spot' for Israeli action identified as September-October
• White House remains determined to give sanctions time

"It's not that the Israelis believe the Iranians are on the brink of a bomb. It's that the Israelis may fear that the Iranian programme is on the brink of becoming out of reach of an Israeli military strike, which means it creates a 'now-or-never' moment," he said.

"That's what's actually driving the timeline by the middle of this year. But there's a countervailing factor that [Ehud] Barak has mentioned – that they're not very close to making a decision and that they're also trying to ramp up concerns of an Israeli strike to drive the international community towards putting more pressure on the Iranians."

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Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:29 | 2176698 linrom
linrom's picture

You forgot to offer Salami to Allah. What happened?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:48 | 2176733 object_orient
object_orient's picture

There is no treaty obligation, because there is no treaty.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 02:15 | 2176899 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Yes, it's much worse than a mere "treaty". Organized Jewry bankrolls both parties, owns and staffs most media. Demicans and Republicrats will do what ZOG wills.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 06:16 | 2177018 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Why would someone red arrow you for telling the truth? I cannot find any mutual defense treaty. The only treaties I can find is where the USA brokered a deal between Israel and Egypt and Israel and the PLO [Dealing with terrorists I guess].

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 03:51 | 2176971 Tompooz
Tompooz's picture

 "They need US anti missile systems to defend their airspace and USN carrier airgroups to up the strength of the air campaign."


Sooo, what happened with those 69 Patriot missiles intercepted in Finland? Any confirmation of their ultimate origin yet?

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 09:51 | 2177207 Element
Element's picture

ah nah, those woz from germanye and going 2 souf corea, all legal like, silly Fins jus let their dogie eat end-user certifikates and pooped on the menyfest, so it looked like the explodives were illeagleable.

All sorted

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 06:13 | 2177017 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Strange, I did a search for defense treaties betweent the USA and Israel and couldn't find any. I was able to find MOIs about us giving them billions of dollars, but no mutual defense pact. Please point me toward this treaty you wrote about.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:15 | 2176534 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Bullfucking shit on the big rigs sitting at 5.

Make that 14 and even walmart will say fuck it park all of it and layoff the distribution workforce.

Long ago I discovered 120 desiel in Jersey where it was 1.99 and everything was talking SHUT THE USA DOWN! on the radio.

Unfortunately for that poor fuel man, his 3000 gallon tank was drained in a few minutes and truckers kept coming far and wide as soon as the cheap gas hit the wires like a cheap gold rush.

And it was....

Late in my days I would dump 300 gallons of 4.20 desiel into the tank EVERY 24 HOURS because with two of us drivers running as hard as possible to keep up... bring the goddamn fuel and price be damned.

Compared to keeping Accounts happy fuel is cheap.

It is YOU the grocery store and walmart buyer that PAYS for the overages in fuel.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:59 | 2176308 SHEEPFUKKER

Wouldn't it have been better PR had the U.S. just printed the money to buy the oil rather than print the money to pay the troops to kill innocent people for the oil? I guess losing strategy either way. 

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 08:29 | 2177078 silverbullion
silverbullion's picture

That's the problem, Iran doesn't want to accept dollars for oil.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:29 | 2176420 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Or ammonium nitrate, for that matter.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:56 | 2176498 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Ammonium nitrate?

Kill all chickens, their shit fuels terrrrists!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:59 | 2176501 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Hold the Potassium Nitrite, please.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:23 | 2176553 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture


I laughed so hard Ipad soup shot out my nose. It burns.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:10 | 2176171 chintito
chintito's picture

Got any dinosaur sludge?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:24 | 2176208 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

No, but I have unicorn piss.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:41 | 2176256 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

is that the virgin female carribean or east african striped male variety of unicorn piss? \they gargle with quite different sensations/

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:49 | 2176277 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I just started getting into it.  I've been buying the one that says "table".  I am no connoisseur like you.  Which do you prefer?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:11 | 2176175 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

War is the health of the state.

It's also a racket, too, as Smedley Butler told us some 80 years ago or so, but who cares? There are flags to wave, nationalistic slogans to put on bumper stickers, and patriotic songs to sing.

Freedom isn't free, you know?

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:35 | 2176184 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I liked that summer of 2010 ( RECOVERY), comment! Forgot to give you a Greenie! So +1 for this comment and look above.


  Ok I guess I missd the POINT? He is a nice person! UPDATED!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:17 | 2176189 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture


Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:42 | 2176257 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Silver Keisers.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:43 | 2176262 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Sentio aliquos togatos contra me conspirare.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:55 | 2176290 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Louie Louie, oh no.  

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:56 | 2176495 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Food fight!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:43 | 2176264 thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture

It costs a buck oh five.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:06 | 2176333 yabyum
yabyum's picture

long car magnets.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:12 | 2176176 mt paul
mt paul's picture

Iran..sunday 19 feb 2012


cuts export of oil

to France and Britian ...

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:13 | 2176182 navy62802
navy62802's picture

Saudis also cut their output.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:27 | 2176214 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

They've been "cutting" output since '09.  It has nothing to do with their production capacity.  Nothing.  Move along.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:36 | 2176239 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

May I suggest you look up a word in the dictionary? STOCKPILING

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 20:39 | 2176248 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

May I suggest you read a book.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:02 | 2176317 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Can't debate without losing--uses childish insults.

You should adopt a new debate style.  That's only if you don't wish to remain a child in the eyes of your peers forever.  If not, then carry on.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:07 | 2176350 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I am mocking you.  You didn't figure it out?  Damn, I thought it was plain as day.

You use ad hom.  You use strawman.  So I started doing the same thing to make a point.  You want me to stop?  Ok.


Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:20 | 2176393 tmosley
tmosley's picture


That is a stupid bluff.  The use of ad hominem is not "keeping the gloves on", and ceasing its use is not "taking the gloves off".  Stop pretending that you have been acting like anything but a little shit.

And further, how exacty were you mocking me when you were replying to someone else?

As a fish facing a man with a gun, you might want to flop yourself out of the barrel.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:25 | 2176413 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

You are the leader of the unicorn brigade, remember?  It was you who came when I called.  You are who I have been mocking.  You use ad hom relentlessly.  You use strawman.

You should see yourself on these threads.  You get beat up until you use ad hom, and then you come back the next day with more strawman.  Then you tell everyone else they are using ad hom and strawman.  It's pathetic.  You are pathetic.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:58 | 2176499 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Note your forced characterisation of me is pathetic, just like your high priest's feeble attempts.

It is odd that you attempt to paint yourself as an unbiased observer here.  The sort of thing a child would try to do.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:10 | 2176531 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Ad hom.  Ad hom.  Ad hom.  You just used three ad homs.

You should change your avatar to "Ad Hom Guy".  No, better yet, stop posting.  You would save a lot of space.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:37 | 2176586 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Perhaps you should learn what ad hominem is before attempting to claim that other people are using it?

I characterized your ARGUMENT as pathetic, I didn't try to disprove your argument by calling YOU pathetic. I further pointed out that you are acting childish.  This was not connected with your argument, and is thus not ad hominem.
Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:05 | 2176643 Max Fischer
Max Fischer's picture



Holy shit!  Cliff and Woody are in a fight.  

Between the both of you, you guys have racked up more ridiculous predictions than any other two members on this website. 

COMEX default is imminent!  The USD will collapse within weeks!  Silver to $60 by next Friday!  The industrial panic is coming!  Silver will reach parity with gold!  

Rather than fighting, you two should find a neighborhood bar, have a drink and tell each other ridiculous tales.

Max Fischer, Civis Mundi



Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:15 | 2176663 tmosley
tmosley's picture

THe Comex defaulted two months after I said it was imminent, I never gave a timeline for the collapse of the USD, silver was rising against my predictions, which said that silver would go to ZERO on greatly increasing volume as the suppliers and users fled the corrupt market, the industrial panic IS coming, and silver has been at parity with gold before.

Basically, you had to make up or mischaracterize a quote to find where anything I said was wrong, save for those two things that simply haven't happened yet.

You are still upset from all the thrashings I have given you over the years, RNR.  Quick, try to change names again and deny it is you!  Maybe this time you won't be found out instantly!

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 23:20 | 2176676 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

He was refering to me.  I have said the dollar will collapse.  Last spring I said it would move to 66 and then collapse.  I have been wrong, I'll admit.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:03 | 2176753 tmosley
tmosley's picture

The dollar has collapsed in real terms.

The USDX is about as useful as an altimeter that reads the the height of the device to the bottom of the cockpit.  It is useless because it compares the dollar to all the other curencies that are being debased at about the same rate as our own.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 00:10 | 2176765 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Yeah, I know, but I still use it as a metric when timing the movements of the snaking Fiat Ponzi, and I said it would be at 66 awhile ago.  I've been wrong, and Max was refering to me.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 03:39 | 2176965 trav7777
trav7777's picture

COMEX defaulted?  ROTFL...oh really??? it didn't.

I'm sure now you will regale us with how it "really" defaulted in YOUR opinion which isn't worth the shit from the ass of a broke-dick dog.

RNR is a dick, but he beats you like a fuckin drum.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:05 | 2176520 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

I'm not taking sides in the douche debate, but you just used the word "you" 11 times in a few sentences to complain about someone talking too much about the poster to whom he is responding instead of the topic at hand.  So I've been talking about me for too long.  What do you think about me?

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:08 | 2176528 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Look fucknuts, he has been attacking everyone's character for years but then turns around and points out when we do it.  I was finally telling him to fuck off.

And about you?  I wish you would stop posting.  You look like idiot on here.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:13 | 2176540 tmosley
tmosley's picture

lol, sure, I've been attacking people's characters, rather than calling them out for what they are.

If you are so upset with my pointing out of the failures of your arguments, stop using logical fallacies.  If you are upset that I use those same fallacies, then point them out when I use them.  Those things hurt both of our arguments.

Rand doesn't really look like an idiot, he is clearly a fairly smart guy, but he is just infected with a poisonous ideology, like so many around here and in the halls of power.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:18 | 2176548 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

I've decided to put all my support behind Shit Sandwich.  

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 22:25 | 2176557 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I can't do this anymore, which is why I had started the unicorn piss thing, I can't deal with how you warp an arguement from, "Ad hom, strawman, ad hom."  And you do it because you are a masochist.  I won't be commenting with you anymore.  It's not worth my time.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!