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Yen Set To Regain Funding Crown Soon?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report is out, and what a difference two months makes for a currency. After everyone was uber bullish on the Yen two short months ago with nearly record high bullish bias in the form of 57K net long non-commercial spec contracts, the Yen has become the most loathed, and despised currency, as the net short interest has slid to -66K, nearly the largest net short in 5 years, and the most gross short exposure since June 2007. And while the Euro is still vastly detested, the Yen is en route to becoming the one currency with the most net shorts. Which begs the question: is the Yen preparing to once again become the funding currency, and is Andy Xie's analysis about an upcoming JPY devaluation about to be proven prescient once again? Finally, anyone who thinks that the central planners west of Nippon will stand for this aggression, you have another thing coming.

 


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Fri, 04/13/2012 - 16:13 | Link to Comment Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

The Euro may be crap but unlike the Yen,  at least they are not (yet) radioactive.

 

 

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 16:14 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Sing after me: GLOW-IN-THE-DARK PONZI!  GLOW-IN-THE-DARK PONZI!  GLOW-IN-THE-DARK PONZI!  GLOW-IN-THE-DARK PONZI!  GLOW-IN-THE-DARK PONZI!  GLOW-IN-THE-DARK PONZI!

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 21:29 | Link to Comment johnu1978
johnu1978's picture

Buy silver it's on sale now!!!

 

-John
Edible Plant Tours - Primitive Skills Classes
http://www.heartrootnatureconnection.com

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 18:08 | Link to Comment gibons
gibons's picture

The Yen may be crap but unlike the Euro, at least you can be sure it will still exist 3 years from now ;]

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 16:14 | Link to Comment Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

To keep the race tight we tried to give them a win!

http://annoyanidiot.blogspot.com/

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 17:46 | Link to Comment Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

I'm having a hard time deciding if you're a spammer Chief.

Would you mind pointing me to the last comment of you made without the link?

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 16:16 | Link to Comment holdingontomypants
holdingontomypants's picture

I would like Tyler to do a cost of living difference between Japan and US so we can see what inflation to expect with all the fiat printing Benny has been doing as he catches up to Japan debt to GDP. 

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 16:54 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I'm not sure you could meaningfully quantify costs, as there are way too many cultural differences to account for to come up with a comparable standard of living. Sure, you could make a model, but it would be highly subjective, or in an effort to clear away the clutter, overly simplistic.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 17:22 | Link to Comment Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

Do it yourself and wow us with your brilliance.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 17:59 | Link to Comment Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

The hookers will be younger, and tend to giggle with their hands in front of their mouths so as not to appear immodest.

I don't believe there's a valid formula to translate 'Quality of Life' into 'Cost of Living'.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 16:19 | Link to Comment holdingontomypants
holdingontomypants's picture

Plus it would help me calcualate what I can expect my gold and silver to realistically climb to in value. Make sure I have enough hedge against the fiat follar.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 16:21 | Link to Comment toadold
toadold's picture

Japan has got a nascent tea party type revolt going on about government spending which seems to go mostly to government drones and disgust that they want to increase the consumption tax after both of the major parties said they wouldn't increase it.  The money printing is not going over well either because it is going to screw over all the retired people. Then their is the whole protectionist tariff thing on agricultural imports. Rice is starting to get to high for the poor.  It is a race to reform before the economic tsumami hits.  

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 17:53 | Link to Comment BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

Really? A "Tea Party type revolt"???

Here? In Japan? Do you have any articles/links to support that?

What I see is the very fucking opposite of revolt. The Japanese are as far from revolting as a dish of ice cream with a side-order of blowjob.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 18:25 | Link to Comment toadold
toadold's picture

http://ampontan.wordpress.com/2012/04/07/sunrise-in-the-land-of-the-rising-sun/

I did say nascent. 

Since this article was posted Hasimoto may have crashed and burned by sucking up to an old aparatchick and the "public sevice unions" As usual if you want to be misinformed read the newspapers. 

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 19:57 | Link to Comment Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

Politicians in Osaka will almost always say and do anything to appearto be atodds with what Tokyo is saying. Half of that is common sense, half of that is political posturing and the other half (I'm not good at math) comes from the fact that they have no consitutents depended on the US military and have a verty large voting Communist bloc.

There is nothing remotely Tea Party-ish going on in Japan.  Pensioners just cling tighter to their fewer remaining resources.  They won't get angry or march.  As for protectionism, I've never once (ONCE!) in my life heard Japanese people complain about the high price of the high quality foods they demand.  They know they are paying a quality premium.  They already get thousands of tons of rice from Vietnam, India and Thailand and guess what they use it for?  Glue etc.  They won't eat anything but the best and they won't call eating the best a burden, unlike the USofA (TM) where we demand any pink slime/Soylent Green as long as it's remotely digestable for pennies on the pound.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 16:21 | Link to Comment newstreet
newstreet's picture

Thanks for this post.  Just covered the short usd/jpy day trade I've been riding since this morning.  Guess alot of ZH readers bailed on their longs at the same time.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 17:01 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

You won't be so thankful the day you get Corzined, rehypothetically speaking.

I just don't understand how someone can be a ZH reader, yet continue to play in a rigged casino (unless it's your job managing OPM and your name isn't Barnhardt).

Are you really not concerned about having everything stolen out from under you?

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 16:25 | Link to Comment Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture

ONCE AGAIN SHORTING YEN WILL FAIL NO MATTER HOW HARD THE JAPS CRASH THEIR CURRENCY!! BE BULLISH ON YEN

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 16:44 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

Yeah, right.  Also, go long TEPCO and Sony.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 21:11 | Link to Comment narnia
narnia's picture

the Yen is in a terminal death spiral

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 17:20 | Link to Comment zhtidbits
zhtidbits's picture

so people are net short the yen, the euro and it looks like USD is on that path soon too.  Guessing the commodity currencies are the crowded long on the other side of that...

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 17:59 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

cmdyFtrzIndices/1y

the COTS rept is up over on goldSeek.c

the "dollar" is ~~79.9 and more than made up for yesterday's "loss", yet is still 'down' a fraction of a % 'on the week'

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 17:36 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

sure!  devalue it!  i don't care!  if 5% right now doesn't float the fuking boat, why not just...  go for 10%?  or wtf:  how about 20?  what a carry currency!

imo, this is the most carefully orchestrated centralBankester group circle-jerk imaginable;  a few years ago, no one could have imagined how the fungi-cide would proceed

who coulda known?  i mean it;  a few banksters about to "pull" the economy?  not me, i'll tell ya;  this is all newie to slewie;  this is not your own carry trade of a few years ago, imo, much less yer father's or grandfather's

why not?  b/c the banksters can shoot the nose offa carry at 50 meters with a pistol riding a fuking Harley, now;  if, of course, they feel like it...

trust me

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 18:20 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I looked @ the CoT charts last night. Based on the moves today, I still feel comfortable long aud/jpy. I just keep lowering my average. I should have taken a partial profit ( aud/jpy & (aud/usd) before the usd financial announcements this morning.

 The China move was a bit overdone, but who believes the PBoC, anyways? The Baltic Dry has been in the GREEN consistently.

Financials and commodities are still solid. I still like the aud/usd and aud/jpy trade. A ( RBA)25 bps cut will be bought on the fact, in my opinion.That would be a good internal boost for the aud R/E markets.

Some people like nzd and cad. Have at it, the Southern Hemisphere is going into winter, and crude inventories are building.

 Canada has The U.S. and PBoC election cycle to deal with. if I want some additional risk that eur/aud chart looks tempting. Japan is on a soft yen policy, and will print/monetize at any expense! Nice commenting over the last couple of days Tyler. It's been choppy!

  Although ( VIX ) closed under 20?

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 23:30 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?cid=1203&MainCatID=12&id=20120410000108

Chinese data for you, from the mouth of chinese data collector.

Himself, he doesn't believe the data.....but the world does.

 

However, that she is beautiful, no doubt about it.

 

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 18:58 | Link to Comment Golden Showers
Golden Showers's picture

I don't know, but look!

http://www.codedojo.com/?p=278

Japan has a machine that will pour a frosty mug of beer!

Obviously we're talking about the most highly evolved, homogenous nation on the planet. They've been nuked, firebombed, and completely irradiated. And what, I say what do they give us? Akira, Hello Kitty, Toyota SR5s, Totoro, Tetsuo the Iron Man, and frosty mug beer pouring machines, not to mention dance dance revolution, nintendo, and pokemon.

I'd think twice about trying to make a buck off of a country who's economy and currency is, to quote Ween, up shit creek with a turd for a paddle. I might also ought to stand back a few steps and ask how come, as fucked-up as Nippon's debt to gdp ratio is, that anyone gives a shit about their stupid Yen. Is the Yen going to stay strong? I don't know... what is the Yen? Another Fiat currency? Should I short it? Go long? Talking about people here. Like you and me, trapped on a toxic island. They work and get paid in fucking Yen. Think about that.

To short or not to short; that is the question. My advice is to fuck off with the carry trades, and baskets of currency, and learn a thing or two about the world you can't read about on a candlestick chart. Would anyone give a shit if I wanted to short the Peso? Why don't I read news about the fucking Peso? Why would I give a fuck about a currency that I have to carry a decimal place to figure out the fucking exchange rate? When I see a Japanese price tag, all I can think is "daym shit's changed in a year!" Well, that decimal place is where we're headed, if you ask me. Japan is like even more West Coast than California--and they're way ahead out there in California.

Stop putting your energy in the wrong places. Figure out whether to buy PM's and have a nice day or whether to live in an ontological nightmare of myopic paper exchanges, suckas.

But the one thing I'd never underestimate is a nation that can make a frosty mug beer pouring machine. I'm pretty sure they can make a machine that will kick a can endlessly and play GO at the same time.

No Future, Bitchez!

Disclosure: I dearly resent reality and believe that I should have my very own hentai model pouring endless pitchers of ale and feeding me grapes after a hard day of performing my proletarian duty. Be that as it may, I seriously hope that Japan has not just devised a technology to replace my favorite butch lesbian hard-rocking bartender with a self-checkout beer pouring machine. Although I will not have to tip the machine and therefore I will save money to spend on the precious. I'm too afraid to buy a hooker and I masturbate way too much.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 20:41 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I appreciate your research. G/S. Respectfully, the yen will weaken substancially! If anyone knows how to manage intervevention?

  MoF and BoJ do! The previous MoF( head), is the Leader of Japan and his right hand man is #2.

  Japan will continue to loosen, and their export numbers will continue to grow!

  I am short Yen against all the crosses, and long some emerging currencies that will sell yen, for liquidity!

 

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 23:22 | Link to Comment Vint Slugs
Vint Slugs's picture

Tyler, you really need to get on base - find someone who can write/analyze intelligently about what the futures markets are all about.

Since when do the non-commercial specs, the little guys, have anything to do with market direction?  We constantly read at ZH about how the "commercials" screw the little guy - especially in the precious metals when big guys like JPM who broker for the real physical players allegedly dictate market direction.  Surely that ZH bias is applicable to FX, soybeans, porkbellies, etc.  Additionally, the chart included in the so-called analysis does not illustrate any correlation with USDJPY price direction.

If you want some decent input with regard to USDJPY in relation to COT, please check out this April 6, 2012 analysis by Tom McClellan.  He is writing about the US T-Bond market but his analysis hinges on the commercial exposure to the USDJPY:

http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/deserved_or_not...

 

"Are you a piker or are a player?"

VS

Sat, 04/14/2012 - 03:39 | Link to Comment Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture

GOOD TO SEE SOMEONE AGREES WITH ME...

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 10:04 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

The Big Picture Wile E. Coyote Equity Top.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis

Prepare for a substantial USD rally.

Fri, 08/24/2012 - 08:09 | Link to Comment JJSF
JJSF's picture

Here's what the JPY has done since this article...

http://mlatrader.com/?p=9

Trade accordingly..

 

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