You're now on the archive server. Commenting has been disabled.
Repeat the following with increasing vigor...
Too bad you have to be a day trader to follow this cycle as it goes 360 degrees in hours not months or weeks or even days
The cycle works until it doesnt Tyler.... We are on the edge of the cliff with Dow 2k as the floor...
But where's the part where people create value through combining land, labor and capital in response to the demands of transactors in the marketplace?
Oh, wait -- I stopped reading too soon:
All they know is that their bonus bread is fiat buttered on the side of the command economy overlords.
you forgot the step immediately before the market selloff:
"Goldman Sachs tells muppets equities are the opportunity of a life time"
It occurs to me that I was perfectly content in nonexistence for billions and billions of years, until, without my permission, I was born, and forced to survive.
Brilliant. Thanks for that.
It looks like a 'how to' instruction for a double dutch rudder!
Just think, we only look like a glass 90% fool, (full). LOL
And all timed perfectly for Obama's reelection. Do-si-do and around we go folks!
I think the life cycle is all backwards-- You should start out dead-- Get it out of the way-- You wake up in an old age home, feeling better every day-- You get kicked out for being too healthy; go collect your pension-- Then, when you start work, you get a gold watch on your first day-- You work 40 years until you're young enough to enjoy your retirement-- You drink alcohol, you party, you're generally promiscuous and you get ready for High School-- You go to primary school,you become a kid, you play, you have no responsibilities, you become a baby-- Then, you spend your last 9 months floating peacefully with luxuries like a central heating, spa, room service on tap, larger quarters everyday-- Then you finish off as an orgasm! It's got to be better this way, 'cause this getting old sucks!
what ? what is this ? some kind of business? lol we dont do "business " anymore in America............ we gamble the retirement funds of millions of people to make a few million in bonuses and charge administrative fees.
Productivity? pssshhhhh a relic of the past.....
Value creation???? psssshhhhhh the only value we need is the VALUE WE CAN STEAL.
"investments" pssssssh a cover phrase for "we stole your money two months ago and your balance still says its there until you go to withdraw it".
Welcome to America, 2012.
"STOP THIS CRAZY THING!!!"
It's the 21st century. Where's my flying car?
'R'oh r'ow!' said Astro
You don't know the power of the dark side... Bernanke MUST print.
We can only hope that Benanke is mentioned alongside Diocletian in the history books...
This cycle works when we add the Edward Jones Cycle of Investor Emotions chart overlay. Dither>Euphoria>Time to Rebalance> or some such crap... Keep the 99% in the market bitchez!!! SSSLLUURRRPPPPPP
That was comforting, thank you Tyler. Bring on the vigor!
Did we blow through jalapeno and jump to concentrated habernero?
what sell-off ? I dont see one. The lemmings are crawling up the walls again..
Precisely ...the "End of the World is Nigh" hysteria is still at fever pitch but there's probably 3 years before we fall off a cliff again
we're going to kick the can for a long while yet, relax everyone, time aplenty to prepare for the meltdown
'Probly 3 years'....you know no such thing, stop acting like you do.
Pass to the left.
PPT's got a bazooka.. algos are the ammo..
I know what you mean.... I'm looking for the arrow that says "bathroom" and I can't find it either....
Actually I think we've stalled inbetween outlook improves and Policy Makers dither
...'and so there is nothing new under the sun.'
The Calendar rules us. Monday to Friday. Take your precious two days off and go back to work...
History is merely repeating itself...
But Jim Sinclair said the bottom was in at gold $1,650!!!!!
Sell Mike, sell! Sinclair was off by 6 bucks. Then see what recommendations Crammer has for you.
Sinclair also called $1625 gold for 2011 back in 2007!!!!
Absent money printing gold will likely sell off, but ultimately not as hard as everything else.
I've corresponded with Sinclair trying to correct some of his errors (mostly about other's positions, which he misrepresented), and IMO Sinclair is far, FAR too arrogant for his own good... And therefore the good of anyone who takes his advice w/o taking that particular character "aspect" into account.
I think Faber has this right near term. Faber thinks it's still in a correction, but continues to buy physical gold, although he is hedging his position with USD and Asian dividend paying equities.
You were trying to correct some of Sinclair's errors? Sorry, who is arrogant?
Sinclair sold his gold at the peak in 1980 when he saw the rate rise writing on the wall. Sinclair called $1625 gold for 2011 in 2007 when it was utterly audacious to do so, and was roundly ridiculed.
The best thing you can do regarding Jim Sinclair is to sew your mouth shut like Big Mike, take his advice and enjoy the ride.
Read carefully you yapping little prick: Sinclair clearly misrepresented some people's positions, I politely tried to correct him (so he wouldn't come off as a boorish, ignorant asshole), and he arrogantly dismissed me.
So go ahead, keep your nose firmly planted in his sphincter and slavishly follow every word he says. I personally like to make up my own mind (but I understand how that's too hard for some people).
and he arrogantly dismissed me.
I arrogantly dismiss you, as well.
I cant really imagine you politely trying anything, Internet Tough Guy
You go ahead and make up your own mind if it makes you feel empowered, while guys like Sinclair and Gold Hounds in general rake it in.
I quit following jsmineset.com because it was like a broken record. buy buy buy. I like dan norcini better. Jim never called over bought and kept telling everyone its going higher instead of warning that there could be corrections. He is a cult leader who reveals enough to convince but not enough to educate challengers. He has huge credibility but says little of merit anymore. Like I said a broken record. Don't get me wrong I have huge repect because he was a formative part of my education, my problem is he holds back and he knows way more than he's telling.
Huh? I bought few Oz after Benny's announcement and I'm just starting (since I last loaded up at 1500).
Sitting in cash, waiting for the next sell-off
Sitting on gold, waiting for the blast off
Sitting on silver, waiting for the nova
Sitting on the can, waiting for a movement.
And retail still wont show up.
You could really be just about anywhere at any time. It matters not.
Quantum Mechanics and the Uncertainty Principal.
As near as we can tell, we are nowhere.
This is what happens when you enter a purely symbolic sphere: a mindfuck.
Unlike physics, none of this shit actually exists.
Are you saying that fiat currency doesn't actually exist!
Get my broker on the line!
At impulse speed.....warp factor 1 next....
In The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy movie, the spaceship they stole, The Heart Of Gold, had a maximum speed at 'Ludicrous' speed.
I think the next big upleg in the POG will be as "ludicrous' speed.
Really? I thought I was here.
So that means I am there. Soon you will be there and i will be here
And...there goes silver down the shit hole.
huh? my silver didnt go anywhere
that's right, it's charmin asswipe
Once silver is under $32 again, I am buying more.
I was really hoping to see 30 again.
Come on Blythe! Sell some more paper!
A circle jrk i believe, Ben has only two hands and so many to service!
At which point your algo is poised to buy-buy-buy ?
By 'policy makers take action' I guess that would be to leak 'QE3' rumors again so markets can price it in for the 50th time?
i lived in japan in the nineties; they will keep this up for a very long time; shit will get worse, nothing will improve; then... well, no country has gotten there yet... i would suspect martial law, soviet style taking and raping. we'll see; hopefully i will be able to leave with my family.
The Soviet citizens didn't have the 2nd amendment.
and soon, we won't either.
Well, with a gun in circulation for every man, woman and child, that is when the fireworks will start. Unstopable force meets an immovable object.
Firearms are a very old technology. Obsolete in the socail networking century.
Hey, do you think the Spartans would have lost in '300' if they had artillery, posion gas, and the other horrors of the 20th century.
When they come, people will be convinced it's just temporary, and will surrender willingly without a shot fired. Most people who were sent to death camps in Germany or Russia went without the slightest struggle.
The optimism bias man. People only rise up if everybody else is. That's why they round people up at night.
Sad but true. And who wants to be the first (or next?) "extr*mist" gunned down by the po' po' anyway? ...only to be made to look like a psychopath by the mainscream media. No thanks. I'll just watch it go down on t.v. (if that still exists) from somwhere in South America. In the U.S., "the people" will line up, like good little slaves, just like they did in the UK and other places before, to turn in their dangerous weapons. Only, this time, it will probably be in exchange for Monsanto "food" coupons and vaccines. Eat up boys and girls!
More like different types of rentseekers starting to eat each other.
Heard from a bird to a dog that they think they can keep this going for another 10-15 years and they think they have everything under control....
That is when you know its time!!
This self-reinforcing loop is going to hit a brick wall.
soon it will simplify down to "policymakers take action" and "markets rally". permanent rally with no sell offs. see Zimbabwe.
wash, rinse, repeat (ad infinitum or until Atlas shruggs, I guess)
I'm on strike, and proud to admit it.
These markets are driven more by political rhetoric than political action...
We often here the phrase "priced in"; I think today is "priced out" day.
Dinah Moe Humm http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u4hzVpYAP-U
My cyclical flow chart looks like this...
"POLICY MAKERS DITHER" => "POLICY MAKERS DITHER SOME MORE" => "POLICY MAKERS KEEP DITHERING BUT SAY LOOK OVER THERE (EUROPE)" => "POLICY MAKERS TAKE A VACATION" => "POLICY MAKERS COME BACK FROM VACATION & RE-COMMENCE DITHERING" => "POLICY MAKERS VOTE THEMSELVES A PAY RAISE (& THE BANKERS GET BONUSES)"
That's the cycle within the cycle. Sorta like epicycles.
I believe you missed one about "policy makers meet at five star hotels to dither together."
It's amazing they find enough time to organise the hookers!
So go the futures, so goes about 2000 other stocks. Why do we even need the rest of the market anymore? Silly.
Plus throw in a couple tornadoes in Dallas today and we're good to go.
Can anything make this market go down for more than 1 hour?
A rotten AAPL.
I would adjust the arrows so they are weighted:
The green arrows should be much longer and the red arrows much shorter due to BTFD mentality
Are you guys watching the bond market?
what bond market ? I did not know we had one.
Adele is singing for the next Bond movie. Thats all I know.
Got my bonds at the Sado-Masochists R Us store. Prices seemed stabilized. What are you referring to?
What? You mean to tell me the stock market can actually go down? And what does Mr Dithers have to do with all this?
Mr. Dithers reaction to Dagwood upon hearing QE3 is kaput.
Short the index and solar trash, waiting for the next sell off.
btw: Tylers, you were quoted by the Handelsblatt, yesterday ..
May I please BTFD with extra leverage, sir?
since when you believe that "outlook" follows "market"? wasn't the "green" market a bubble?
Unless it doesn’t happen like that
This time the small investors and foreign investors are out of the “rally”
Wall Street is heavily loaded by expensive stocks and if the market goes down, it will not burn the small investors, which means that market will not go down, therefore QE3 will not take place and U.S. will have a issue – no one will buy U.S. debt anymore
shouldn't that chart be shaped like a Slinky?
Looks like Drug addict rehab cycles.
Market is still up ~$9.50. Who cares about all the rest of the pretenders.
That's a big YUP!
I had to follow that link to get that. Nice.
people are really so stupid & they actually listen to Ben and the Fed???? amazing
My dear, since March 2009, the only person and entity that people should have listened to was Bernanke and the Fed. Everything else is just noise.
The sole reason we went from 666 to 1420 on S&P was because of Bernanke and every other CB in the G7. Apparently doubling the balance sheets of CB's in 4 years is good for equities.
Equities will continue to climb until we get the "retail all in" signal.
And retail will never buy, because theyre broke.
bankers are good and short - so its time to drive down the markets 20-30% -
then, they'll go long - and the public will be screaming for more qe - and the markets will go up 30-40%
any retard can get rich if this is how we roll from now on -
You believe so? I dont, I bet in fact markets regain their little -.3% down day here by open tomorrow.
Come on $1600, I've got junk paper to move!
Now if this were the 1A version of Tyler I'm pretty sure this whole graphic would be done in a toilet bowl swirl graphic with "you are here" being represented by a floating turd.
Or.....perhaps a human centipeded arranged in a circle.
When do we get moved to the dryer?
BTFD until FB goes public. There are a lot of policies getting written with share values as payment. Nothing serious likely to happen until later.
Sheet, they keep levitating these stupid tech and retail names?
WTF?? The Fed takes the heroin away, we should be limit down on everything
I do Coke. So I can work longer. So I can earn more. So I can.... do more Coke.
I wonder at point the cycle repeats fast enough to cook marshmellows. I'm bullish s'mores!
Bernanke isn't doing a good enough job. IT SHOULD BE 100%!!!
Then we can have a self fulfilling Ponzi making everyone rich. Nobody ever has to pay because nobody actually ever gets paid, FUCKING PERFECT!!!
Is that all they are buying. In theory they can buy 100% more.
Isn't that QE without a loudspeaker?, come to think of it after a few beers I see things perfectly clear....
1. Bernake will ZIRP us for the next two years (nothing new to announce on fed meetings) we know that!
2 . Obamer needs to fund his constantly expanding deficits and extending the debt ceiling. We know the fed will print and buy as nobody is stupid enough anymore to throw money at the treasury that will never get repaid and yields next to nothing.
Nothing new there, Bernanke will print and buy debt ad nauseaum. wheather he lips it or not.
Fed meetings are totally void and pointless any more as the the dice has already been rolled and we know the outcome.
No surprises any more as they have no levers, they are ZIRPED on one end and nailed to the expanding deficit on the other. If anything this fed meeting shows how powerless they are except their liying lying lips.......
WWWWWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE W W W WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!
Anyone else notice that cycle is hopelessly broken. The problems destroying the economy are never actually fixed, it just gets papered over time after time. Eventually once the wall just becomes patch, it comes crumbling down and there isn't anybody left that knows how to build a new one.
God, I feel like I live Idiocracy every single day of my life. Where's my local Starbucks where I can get a "Hot Latte".
...or take the family out to "Butt Fuckers" for dinner ;)
Too bad it's not April 1st anymore; but, hey, the headlines turned the story today to auto sales soaring. Thank god we melted down all those "old" cars on the cash-for-clunkers/jobs, environment/"green thing" which sort of changed miles/gallon daily.
The poorest couldn't afford a used car afterthat. Maybe they decided to splurge now. Why not. There's a bail-out somewhere, or Obama-auto-care.
GM dealers have over 750k cars on dealer lots but "sell" around 200k each month. Sell is in quotes because half that or more is bought by the government through fleet sales. Eventually the government will not be able to buy any more cars.
At the rate the inventory is expanding there will be more cars on lots than they can ever sell within a model year by June. So in fact they would need to stop producing cars completely for over a year just to sell off the inventory before it becomes obsolete.
But, I'm sure building more cars than you can actually sell in the time you have to sell them is a good business model.
Well if they have the power to make you buy insurance, why not a car?
and why not a Goverbnment Motors auto?
i really have to stop posting while i still have some mobility.
Adr, thanks. This has been disturbing to me. I know nothing about the data on autos. I just remember a guy helping me with a tire and complaining that he could no longer afford to drive anything because there were no used cars for sale. then The point is that the pattern has not been right in my mind. It's coming up again. Bad patterns. Not sure sometimes if it is me or post-traumatic-stress-accounting-changes in September 2007.
Thanks man. Meet me in Mexico. I'd rather deal with the drug cartels.
Obama will pay the rent and make your car payment. Govt approved cars only.
big bad barry barack hussein soetoro obama will pay for anything you want. if you vote for him.
(well i mean - he will pay with tax payer dollars. which meaning tax payer like me is feeling pretty well chumped. geez,
after all these years, i hate being a sucker)
and after he wins he will have 'more flexability' to do anything he wants for his allies. really. think about that.
Market rally tomorrow! just sayin........
What fed minutes? Back to where we were. Cant short this fucking market ever.
Look at PCLN are you kidding me. 1999
Well 87 gajillion dollars printed has to go somewhere right?
haha that graphic is just too funny!
the US stock market has been on a steady rally for 3 years in which time it has DOUBLED in value. the gold rally (which was going to $3000, remember?) never got to $2000 and stallled almost a year ago. hyperinflation just refuses to break out. in fact, it stubbornly refuses to move outside the target range. QE3 isnt materialising, and isnt even close, let along QE4, QE5 etc (remember that call?).
and now we have a graphic which makes it look like there is recurring cycle when there isnt. and to cap it all off, you cant even laugh about Hatzius being wrong, because he is making the same call as ZH!
Looks like we have to fight another war to keep it that way.
You are completely right. You ignore direct evidence of PD Fed funds being used to game the stock market and suppression of the gold market through paper derivatives. But you are completely right.
Bad news was priced in.
Drop releived over bought conditions
By the dips
Don't fight the FED
never short a dull market
Cash on the sidelines
Obama can't afford a down market
I guess it is all correct.
you forgot to stipulate that this is a 24 hr cycle. BTFD. until October.
this lack of economic disaster must be a real downer, especially given the the sell side banks which were "never" going to let the Greek CDS payout, actually did, the Greek default didnt cause the end of the sovereign debt market, and it turned out that Charles Dallara really did know what he was talking about. bummer!
You are completely right. They've done a great job so far....
Greek payout stalled until enough debt off-loaded, then regurgitated into new debt, now current, but not for long. Which of the big five wrote CDS on the new debt, my guess, none, EU subordinated all other senior debt because they no a bath is coming.
what pct. increase for fed treasuries purchases each lap of QE...I assume we will be at 100% soon.
This sell off isnt that huge at all today. Thats just shows how much inflation we have, there is an elevated price level in all assets. Just look at central bank balance sheets that will keep things elevated. I think everyone needs to re-watch this Jim Rickards interview today http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6HKu8guMl8 Clarifies what we are seeing lately.
'this selloff not that huge'? What, barely -50 DOW points? Be regained by open tomorrow...FED cant allow equities to go down longer than 1 day, theyre in emergency mode now, pump no matter what.
Yes we have seen bigger sell offs when the market hears its not getting any more free money. Why not today, because the central banks have inflated and manipulated this market so bad that it will take one hell of a deflation to hurt it. Plus retail investors arnt balls deep in the market like they were in 08. This is a game of gradual inflation and currency wars. Remember who owns the fucking casino deflation ant in the cards.
"Make as much money as you possibly can, through whatever means necessary .... and LEAVEEEEEE"!!!! Forget about hunkering down, ammo, guns, food etc. won't work...not with 300M people at sleep!
Got a spaceship, I take it?
I'll stay. Some of us want to clean this up. Running and hiding ain't going to cut it. We wouldn't even be here if some "brave men" had not stood up to these assholes and said "no more."
I'm saying......NO MORE!
Must. Increase. Vigor.
Ever spin a merry-go-round full of kids in a playground so fast that they're hanging on for their dear lives, while screaming about their predicament?
This graphic is just like that. Only instead of having to use his own energy, The Bernank has a magic button to apply more energy to the system. While the kids know that there's a limit to how fast I can spin it, and that they can manage to hang on until I tire (if they react intelligently), we lack that limit with The Bernank.
Nope, the only limit is how fast it can be spun until it self-destructs (a non-survivable event). The only survival strategy available? Stay the fuck out of the playground!
that is really the best analogy i have ever seen. and i live in nyc - and remember well 20 years ago when all the monkey bars and hanging type stuff wer removed because of fear for lawsuits. we had push merry go rounds everywhere when i was a kid and swings also and of course we all pushed it to the limit as 5,6,7 year olds. anyone seen a see-saw in nyc recently? in nyc they are all gone. as i'm typing, now i'm thinking. maybe one day the perverted bernake will be gone also. because if you aren't using muscle power to spin the rides around, then it's fake daddy, itsn't it? daddy, push faster. one day - we will have fun, children will play in parks and there won't be a 'steve jobs memorial day'. the public will see thru bernake and his day will be sort of a ground hogs day, like guy fowlkes is here in america, something vaguely remembered, not really understood or know as well for example as it is in the uk - along the lines 'did you hear about how this guy bernake was trying to ruin the country and how he whined and whined when the people found him hiding in ...'
I like the Jim Cramer cycle better
Bullish Rant | | VBullish Rant | | VBullish Rant | | VLose Your Ass Listening to this clown | VBullish Rant
on, and on, and on...
cramer on realmoney already justifying why people are wrong to sell, etc
day 1 of a sell off and these permabulls are out in force as usual
Is there an end to this?
Tips: tips [ at ] zerohedge.com
General: info [ at ] zerohedge.com
Legal: legal [ at ] zerohedge.com
Advertising: ads [ at ] zerohedge.com
Abuse/Complaints: abuse [ at ] zerohedge.com
Make sure to read our "How To [Read/Tip Off] Zero Hedge Without Attracting The Interest Of [Human Resources/The Treasury/Black Helicopters]" Guide
Notice on Racial Discrimination.