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Tyler Durden's picture


Today was the lowest volume in S&P 500 e-mini futures (for a non-holiday trading day) in, well, bloody years (and NYSE volume was as dire as Monday's). Today's ES range, under 9 points, was the lowest in the last eight days of low ranges and in fact the eight-day range has only been this low a few times in the last few years and all but one of those marked a significant top. The S&P wavered around unch for most of the day with a US day-session-open ramp, post weak-data that signaled bad-is-good buying in Gold and stocks. Treasuries kept on leaking higher in yield, now up 12-16bps on the week as the USD meandered around unch on the week - with EUR weakness pulling it also back to unch on the week. VIX limped lower by 0.25 vols to 14.6 (after touching unch) but we do note that VVIX (the implied vol of VIX) has been diverging higher in the last two days but it's getting kinda crazy when we are looking at compound options for any signal. HY credit underperformed once again - with a quite ugly flush into the close (on heavy volume).

Weak Empire data provided just the QE lift the pre-open needed and we wriggled higher in ES (blue) all day - as TSY yields also pushed further up...


Intraday ranges remain remarkably low - for eight days now - and volume a disaster. The chart below highlights the last few times that intraday ranges over an eight day period have been so low...


SPY was in a low volume world of its own today as HYG notably underperformed once again (and we have seen some selling in the underlying high yield bonds too)...


as ES remains mind-blowingly dull...


and while the USD is unch on the week, Gold and Silver are down 1% while WTI is up 1.4% (and Brent in EUR even more)...


but someone is betting on some realized vol action picking up as VVIX is majorly diverging from VIX...


which (admittedly cherry-picked) has signaled turning points in the past...


Charts: Bloomberg


Bonus Chart: Quite Impressive hope-iness reversion in Treasuries relative to stocks (not sure many were expecting it to revert this way?)...


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Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:31 | 2708114 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture


Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:38 | 2708151 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Last one out, please turn off the lights!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:48 | 2708191 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

This is what happens when every Bear has been trampled to death by Ben's marauding herd of Pavlovian trained Bulls.

Everybody knows it should go down now, but no one wants to have a longhorn shoved up their ass... courtesy of Ben.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:58 | 2708221 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Market is topped out.  Maybe there is one more opportunity to buy this year, but this is an opportunity to sell.



Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:34 | 2708336 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

But, but, but, tha markets always slow down this time of year.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:54 | 2708409 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

last chart should show extended range.


S&P500 downturn follows yield increase lead. lag of month or two.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 19:15 | 2708629 Fedophile
Fedophile's picture

Welcome to the summer doldrums.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:39 | 2708358 saturn
saturn's picture

You cannot buy either, because you damn well know the moment you do it, the stock will tank like it never has before.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 18:04 | 2708439 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

10 year up sharply....



Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:55 | 2708210 max2205
max2205's picture

IWM SPY pair turning...expect a decent pop

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:33 | 2708124 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Is this the part like when the tide pulls way way out just before a massive tsunami hits??

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:38 | 2708149 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

I feel like Bill Murray since we keep being able to make the same observation every few days.  I guess when the algos are the only one's trading, there's no average joe to fleece on a daily basis.  Must be lonely out there.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:07 | 2708255 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

What a great time to run out and pick up some sand dollars!


I have a feeling volume is about to pick up.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:34 | 2708126 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

No QE for you!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:44 | 2708128 malikai
malikai's picture

Treasuries look like they are about to explode to me. 5y, 10y, and 30y all signalling hard. I don't know, bond markets are hard to model so maybe it's nothing.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:06 | 2708253 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

What's funny is that this blast upward in long rates hasn't been accompanied by any movement in equities.  Looks like political uncertainty, uncertainty over monetary policy and a general buyers strike is moving rates.  Could go on for quite some time if Europe keeps limping along.  Wouldn't it be something to see the 30 year at 450 basis points again?

The most awesome market ever.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:34 | 2708335 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Watching market signals in a non-market is hardly a worthwhile endeavor.

You should take up something productive instead, like say sniffing glue. Sure that doesn't seem productive on its face, but relative to what you're already doing, it's a big step in the right direction.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:35 | 2708341 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

NotApplicable Monkey is a troll trying to come off as something else. Pay him no mind.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:39 | 2708355 malikai
malikai's picture

The day the market ceases to function is the day we're all watching the riots in the dark. As long as the system exists, it will remain most worthwhile to keep one's eye on the market and its signals, manipulated or otherwise.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:38 | 2708131 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The silence of the lambs............just before the slaughter.


Hannibal Lecter: [shouts] No!
[normal voice]
Hannibal Lecter: I will listen now. After your father's murder, you were orphaned. You were ten years old. You went to live with cousins on a sheep and horse ranch in Montana. And...?
Clarice Starling: [tears begin forming in her eyes] And one morning, I just ran away.
Hannibal Lecter: No "just", Clarice. What set you off? You started at what time?
Clarice Starling: Early, still dark.
Hannibal Lecter: Then something woke you, didn't it? Was it a dream? What was it?
Clarice Starling: I heard a strange noise.
Hannibal Lecter: What was it?
Clarice Starling: It was... screaming. Some kind of screaming, like a child's voice.
Hannibal Lecter: What did you do?
Clarice Starling: I went downstairs, outside. I crept up into the barn. I was so scared to look inside, but I had to.
Hannibal Lecter: And what did you see, Clarice? What did you see?
Clarice Starling: Lambs. The lambs were screaming.
Hannibal Lecter: They were slaughtering the spring lambs?
Clarice Starling: And they were screaming.
Hannibal Lecter: And you ran away?
Clarice Starling: No. First I tried to free them. I... I opened the gate to their pen, but they wouldn't run. They just stood there, confused. They wouldn't run.
Hannibal Lecter: But you could and you did, didn't you?
Clarice Starling: Yes. I took one lamb, and I ran away as fast as I could.
Hannibal Lecter: Where were you going, Clarice?
Clarice Starling: I don't know. I didn't have any food, any water and it was very cold, very cold. I thought, I thought if I could save just one, but... he was so heavy. So heavy. I didn't get more than a few miles when the sheriff's car picked me up. The rancher was so angry he sent me to live at the Lutheran orphanage in Bozeman. I never saw the ranch again.
Hannibal Lecter: What became of your lamb, Clarice?
Clarice Starling: They killed him.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:39 | 2708156 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

just put the lotion in the basket....

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:59 | 2708222 fuu
Wed, 08/15/2012 - 18:16 | 2708477 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey fuu!

do you think this might help?

party on, mormons!  party on, neoCons! don't wake up theTeaBaggerz!

they're gonna try to kick the kenyen's ass in the propagandaWars0'2012!

morally, too!

how great is this for a fight?  we're all going on disability for bullshit-related stress diz-orders triggered by and lack of funds for proper self-medication

support the kenyan!  file NOW!

:> here's how:  tell yer boss, mrD.WarbuxZjrEsq:  i'm getting slewieRoidalTM [legislated into the DSM in 2010] and must go on sick leave, i'm afraid, sirFraudalot.  hire temps to help you cook the sales and inventory data, ok?   the accountants and lawyers want it that way anyhow, riiight?

see ya! <:

then, just go to the county and take a number...  the nannies are rilly hot, too!  especially the guys!

special thru laborDay: teachers get a 3.14% "fuk 'back-to-school'"  bonus from the new prez0 program allowing shchoolchildren to borrow up to $50k/year for home-schooling including mandatory internet sex-ed {clothing and condoms optional for spiritual reasons}

together, we can do this! 

now PAY ME!!!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 19:15 | 2708627 fuu
fuu's picture

$40 for my pre-order of "Slewienomics" is in the mail if this subject is covered.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:34 | 2708132 john_connor
john_connor's picture


Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:36 | 2708142 Christoph830
Christoph830's picture

Teetering on the edge of the plank

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:37 | 2708144 asteroids
asteroids's picture

One wonders what Labor Day trading will be like. Remember folks, computer programs do strange things at boundary conditions.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:37 | 2708147 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

We need a nice post labor day micro managed 4% decline. This way I can have "Buying opportunity" screamed in my face for 3 more months.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:37 | 2708148 Seorse Gorog fr...
Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:41 | 2708161 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

ya so boring its not even worth talking about..............

But on a unrelated note, has anyone noticed how quiet Mitty has got the Mormans this election cycle, hes got them towing the line, like a little puppy on a leash!!!  The last 8 or so election cycles they have been out there screaming bloody murder about abortion, gay marriage, you name it, getting shit on ballots in record numbers......this year, their quiet as a church mouse:)  

Its like no one wants to breath and fuck up the fantasy of Mitty bring into the oval office the bust of Joseph Smith holding the secret golden plates!!!! psssssssss. also don't mention the secret underwear, or the secret ceremony to get the passwords to the new planet you go to when you die, etc etc!!!!

I wonder if Paul Ryan and Mitty have talked religion yet, that would be awesome to hear!!!!!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:54 | 2708208 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

This is what it says on the front page of the one of the churches websites, Its awesome!!!!!!

"In the spring of 1820, a 14-year-old boy named Joseph Smith went into a grove of trees near his home in Palmyra, New York, and prayed to learn which church he should join. In answer to his prayer, God the Father and His Son, Jesus Christ, appeared to him, just as heavenly beings had appeared to prophets like Moses and Paul in biblical times. (Visited in the flesh by BOTH Jesus and GOD almighty himself) Joseph learned that the Church originally organized by Jesus Christ was no longer on the earth. (I'm sure the Catholics would like to hear about this!!!)

Joseph Smith was chosen by God to restore the Church of Jesus Christ to the earth. During the next 10 years, Joseph was visited by other heavenly messengers, (NOT just Jesus and GOD, but others too) translated the Book of Mormon by the power of God, and received divine authority to organize the Church. The Church was organized in Fayette, New York, on 6 April 1830, under the leadership of Joseph Smith. It has grown to an organization with members and congregations throughout the world."

Not a peep from the MSM about this stuff, I love it..........oh well i guess it cant be any crazier then any of the others who have held that office!!!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:55 | 2708412 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

As I'll tell everyone who tries to talk politics with me, "How can you trust anyone who would want that position? They are either stupid enough to believe the rhetoric (Stalin's "useful idiots"), or are a sociopath themself, having a completely criminal nature."

Neither of which is a benefit to anyone having to live under the regime.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 18:37 | 2708530 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

Are we talking the Presidency of the United States or about a "Founder of a Religion"????????

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:38 | 2708353 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Quiet Mormons should be a surprise to no one. Team sports just don't work any other way.


Wed, 08/15/2012 - 21:45 | 2708978 FRBNYrCROOKS
FRBNYrCROOKS's picture

I want to know how many wives he REALLY has!!!!!! Will there be a harem in the WH? Does he have like a number 1 wife, number2, ect. How does he split bedtime with all his bitches? I guess Mitt will sleep in a different room every night? That's gonna be tough on the WH staff. At least Air Force One will be big enough for Mitt, his wives and 30 kids.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:44 | 2708170 roadsnbridges
roadsnbridges's picture

Yep, it was a strange day.  Regardless, I would like to thank those that fell in love with S around 2:25pm and TNA into the close.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:49 | 2708185 web bot
web bot's picture

Enjoy the calm...........

You'll be seeing charts and graphs in the months of September and October that have rarely been seen...

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:52 | 2708202 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

someone explain to me why the market would be allowed to drop during the election. never gonna happen

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:00 | 2708230 web bot
web bot's picture

You are aware of what is going on in Europe... and the impending Israeli attack on Iran? Right?

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:10 | 2708262 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

yes for years now. do u have a new development to report?

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 21:29 | 2708940 FRBNYrCROOKS
FRBNYrCROOKS's picture

BB has stepped it up! He is raising the level of hysteria by handing out gas mask!!!! 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:01 | 2708234 Christoph830
Christoph830's picture

Because TPTB want the incumbent out

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:42 | 2708368 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture


Put down the pitcher and step back away from the Kool-Aid!

TPTB care very little which "side" wins, as they own them both.

You're just getting all caught up in the factional in-fighting, which is designed to attract the interest of the sheeple who are so sure that this is the MOSTEST, IMPORTANTIST ELECTION, EVAR!!!111!!11!!


Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:04 | 2708245 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

Its all about how you spin the news, bud.

Even bad news can be good.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:07 | 2708254 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey fonz-oon!

it's the stability, stupid!

and it's not abt the election imo, it is simply about keeping the checks in the mail i see fedFisher now jawboning abt "bailing out the wH" below tyler's great daily Z_WAP-wrap here but that is just fedSpeak:  QE will be used to keep the checks in the mail, unless somebody halts the "ceiling remodels" and uncleSugarless crashes for re-hab

he don't wanna go, BiCheZ!

tyler:  if you wanna mention how things are screwed down so000,000 tight, for so000.000 lo000,000ng, you certainly have my permission...  L0L!!!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:11 | 2708266 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

agreed. crashes are not allowed from here on out.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:44 | 2708374 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Well, except for maybe one or two "controlled collapses."

Fuck, they might even get bold and try for three!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 18:06 | 2708413 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

oh no! not gold silver and oil: the mogamboTrinity again?

hey N/A!  you might recall my earlier rants about the banksters maybe using gold/plat ratio-spread hedges to Kontrol the price of gold better?

from yesterday's Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Slightly Higher
By: Chris Mullen,

:>  <:

i rest my bong, BiCheZ!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 18:36 | 2708525 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

There will be no more crashes. But then, there will be no more savings, either.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:47 | 2708386 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

just like 2008...oh...wait...not a good comparison

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:07 | 2708250 Mugatu
Mugatu's picture

ES minis are now dependent on HFT life support as only real price movement comes solely from a few terminals in located in New Jersey trading shares with themselves. 

Only real hope long term for the equity markets is if we have some giant fucking crash that causes the government to ban the HFT's.  Raping real traders and investors of a few nickels each trade eventually results in people who vote with their feet.  Many fellow traders now say "fuck you" to equities or ES minis and do all their trading in the markets that don't allow 10,000 bids per second.

You have to be a fool to bet big money in Vegas - or to buy equities on Wall Street.


Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:10 | 2708263 Neethgie
Neethgie's picture

the big joke here is wallstreet is its own enemy, by using short termism like hft killing off markets losing market participants...

then with the ipo's that keep blowing up "muppets" so there is no customers left to be fleeced, instead of working with clients so everyone wins...

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:47 | 2708383 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Banksters have little use for markets anyway, they're unwanted competition. They'll keep a couple of bots going to make some numbers change while they help the fedgov mafia launder all the loot they've stolen.

Crime pays.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:14 | 2708272 goldencrumbs
goldencrumbs's picture

Right now are we at moment 1:04 of the rollercoaster ride when you've completed the climb and you pause at the top... right before the screams start?

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:16 | 2708279 catch edge ghost
catch edge ghost's picture

Mmm sour milk. The parasites will be dropping out faster and faster. It's getting easier and easier for Them (tm) to fix all asset prices.


Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:17 | 2708282 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

Old Wall Street axiom:  never short a dull market.  I suspect the current move will terminate with a classic blow-off top.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:17 | 2708283 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

at least theres VIX in Spain. maybe thats were to go.

well said neethgie.. i hope they kill their own golden goose. I just hope CNBS is the fist to go down faster than Beckie quick at Bath Ducky convention

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:19 | 2708294 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Sooooo many momo monkeys getting long into this with the prevailing wisdom being the market will never go down again. Ever. I love it, that's the thinking that allows the best short entry points. That bonus chart is about to experience convergence, then, a move lower together.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:32 | 2708331 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

If I am who you are referring to you have me misread. I don't think a 10% correction is coming. I do think that this bitch can leak higher than anyone on here wants to acknowledge with very few hiccups. The next true "correction" will be the end of the markets as we know it. period.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:25 | 2708315 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Today was pure, unadulterated hell -- algo self-pleasuring olympics.  In fact, Hell is likely only marginally worse than today's trading environment (rumor has it that Satan likes Spanish ham, and has a little stash hidden away . . .)

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:29 | 2708324 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

WallStreet is actually Brotel of Federal Reserve of America.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:32 | 2708332 ES-Sniper
ES-Sniper's picture

Many times, instead of the continual high winds that you might expect to be in the air, indicating a tornado's impending approach, the air instead becomes eerily calm, still, motionless..

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:49 | 2708390 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Toto! Here Toto!

Where are you?

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:38 | 2708354 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

so csco "beats" the only thing csco beats is fluffycakes's boyfriend .hes milked that thing for a decade.. oh yippee a dividend. (csco is now desperate) ..dow to 20k now. its gonna be "baked in" soon

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 18:00 | 2708407 ekm
ekm's picture

Since the blessed Zerohedge unveiled the concept of FLOW, things are simple to explain.


Two examples:

1) MF Global

2) JPMs whale


1) MFG kept buying italian bonds. MFG had only two options:

a) Keep buying until they run out of money

b) Keep buying until the market runs out of italian bonds.

Of course the first one happened and they imploded since they had nobody to sell their sizeable holding of italian bonds. But MFG was small fish.


2) JPM's whale. Again, same two options:

a) Keep buying until JPM runs out of money

b) Keep buying until the market runs out of credit tranches

We know that the second is still happening. JPM holds 70% of that product and has nobody to dump it to.


Same flow logic explain the stock casino. Primary dealers which have access to ZIRP have two options:

a) Keep buying until they run out of money

b) Keep buying until the market runs out of stocks, until they buy up everything and nobody to dump to.

It`s clear to me that the second is happening, that`s why no volume. Same lack of volume for MFG italian bonds or Whale`s credit tranches.


Same flow logic applies to Bear Stearns, Lehman, MFG etc. One ends up buying the whole market without any suckers left. That one has to go. Time is now.


The law of supply and demand is a NATURAL LAW, like gravity. Nobody can escape that law.


Wed, 08/15/2012 - 19:52 | 2708725 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

tell it to the chicks on the space station fixing satellites ok?

if you could suk yer own ekmember we would have supply/and demand at equi-librium

dream on, comrade!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 20:33 | 2708814 ekm
ekm's picture

This is a closed loop system. Money has nowhere to go, just stays inside the loop. Cash and securities gets exchanged for each other.


To trade means to have something to trade with. If there's not much left to trade, there won't be trading.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 18:07 | 2708457 oogs66
oogs66's picture

Cnbc viewership must be plummeting too

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 18:13 | 2708470 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

b) Keep buying until the market runs out of stocks, until they buy up everything and nobody to dump to.


Well, there will be 1.6 billions shares of FB coming to the market, they sure have the money from Bernanke will buy those trash.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 18:24 | 2708492 adr
adr's picture

I would buy one share of Facebook so I could hang the certificate on the wall of my son's bedroom as a constant reminder to him about the stupidity of America and why he is being home schooled.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 19:55 | 2708739 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

wait a few days .... they will be basically free soon .....

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 18:22 | 2708488 adr
adr's picture

So the "reason" why oil popped today outside the Saudi BS was that gasoline inventories unexpectedly dropped. This claims that implied usage by American drivers increased. IMPLIED USAGE!!!!!

Didn't we have a whole bunch of refinery shutdowns. Shouldn't that cause stockpiles of refined gasoline to drop as the supply of gasoline from refineries slowed?

A slowdown from refineries causing stockpiles to draw down has nothing to do with increased demand!!!!!!!!

Jesus fricking christ, shooting these bastards in the head wouldn't be satisfying enough.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 18:56 | 2708578 rokka
rokka's picture

Bonus Chart: Quite Impressive hope-iness reversion in Treasuries relative to stocks (not sure many were expecting it to revert this way?)...

Everybody was expecting this, Tyler - but you :)

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 20:13 | 2708761 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

troll alert!

@ rokka


what kinda zeroHead would show up after 4 months and dis tyler w/ a smiley?

is that you marla?

triple-sec all around?

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 21:19 | 2708918 bookofrao
bookofrao's picture

Market is waiting for a set of good news to explode to the 1500´s?

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 03:07 | 2709431 chump666
chump666's picture

Massive EUR sells, and massive USD buys, Asian indexes (proxies HK/Shanghai) just went neg, risk (FX) is selling hard.  Looks like the QE fantasy that dumb ass EZ and US markets want aint going to happen till 15% is wiped off equities. Till then, finally a correction is taking place.  Fingers crossed the HFTs panic on the UST short covering as yields rise and join the USD buy up and panic stocks.



Thu, 09/06/2012 - 01:24 | 2767078 agagshoes
agagshoes's picture

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