Tyler Durden's picture

Today was the lowest volume in S&P 500 e-mini futures (for a non-holiday trading day) in, well, bloody years (and NYSE volume was as dire as Monday's). Today's ES range, under 9 points, was the lowest in the last eight days of low ranges and in fact the eight-day range has only been this low a few times in the last few years and all but one of those marked a significant top. The S&P wavered around unch for most of the day with a US day-session-open ramp, post weak-data that signaled bad-is-good buying in Gold and stocks. Treasuries kept on leaking higher in yield, now up 12-16bps on the week as the USD meandered around unch on the week - with EUR weakness pulling it also back to unch on the week. VIX limped lower by 0.25 vols to 14.6 (after touching unch) but we do note that VVIX (the implied vol of VIX) has been diverging higher in the last two days but it's getting kinda crazy when we are looking at compound options for any signal. HY credit underperformed once again - with a quite ugly flush into the close (on heavy volume).

Weak Empire data provided just the QE lift the pre-open needed and we wriggled higher in ES (blue) all day - as TSY yields also pushed further up...


Intraday ranges remain remarkably low - for eight days now - and volume a disaster. The chart below highlights the last few times that intraday ranges over an eight day period have been so low...


SPY was in a low volume world of its own today as HYG notably underperformed once again (and we have seen some selling in the underlying high yield bonds too)...


as ES remains mind-blowingly dull...


and while the USD is unch on the week, Gold and Silver are down 1% while WTI is up 1.4% (and Brent in EUR even more)...


but someone is betting on some realized vol action picking up as VVIX is majorly diverging from VIX...


which (admittedly cherry-picked) has signaled turning points in the past...


Charts: Bloomberg


Bonus Chart: Quite Impressive hope-iness reversion in Treasuries relative to stocks (not sure many were expecting it to revert this way?)...

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Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Last one out, please turn off the lights!

dwdollar's picture

This is what happens when every Bear has been trampled to death by Ben's marauding herd of Pavlovian trained Bulls.

Everybody knows it should go down now, but no one wants to have a longhorn shoved up their ass... courtesy of Ben.

The Monkey's picture

Market is topped out.  Maybe there is one more opportunity to buy this year, but this is an opportunity to sell.



Freewheelin Franklin's picture

But, but, but, tha markets always slow down this time of year.

AldousHuxley's picture

last chart should show extended range.


S&P500 downturn follows yield increase lead. lag of month or two.

Fedophile's picture

Welcome to the summer doldrums.

saturn's picture

You cannot buy either, because you damn well know the moment you do it, the stock will tank like it never has before.

AldousHuxley's picture

10 year up sharply....



max2205's picture

IWM SPY pair turning...expect a decent pop

Headbanger's picture

Is this the part like when the tide pulls way way out just before a massive tsunami hits??

FL_Conservative's picture

I feel like Bill Murray since we keep being able to make the same observation every few days.  I guess when the algos are the only one's trading, there's no average joe to fleece on a daily basis.  Must be lonely out there.

Hype Alert's picture

What a great time to run out and pick up some sand dollars!


I have a feeling volume is about to pick up.

malikai's picture

Treasuries look like they are about to explode to me. 5y, 10y, and 30y all signalling hard. I don't know, bond markets are hard to model so maybe it's nothing.


The Monkey's picture

What's funny is that this blast upward in long rates hasn't been accompanied by any movement in equities.  Looks like political uncertainty, uncertainty over monetary policy and a general buyers strike is moving rates.  Could go on for quite some time if Europe keeps limping along.  Wouldn't it be something to see the 30 year at 450 basis points again?

The most awesome market ever.

NotApplicable's picture

Watching market signals in a non-market is hardly a worthwhile endeavor.

You should take up something productive instead, like say sniffing glue. Sure that doesn't seem productive on its face, but relative to what you're already doing, it's a big step in the right direction.

fonzannoon's picture

NotApplicable Monkey is a troll trying to come off as something else. Pay him no mind.

malikai's picture

The day the market ceases to function is the day we're all watching the riots in the dark. As long as the system exists, it will remain most worthwhile to keep one's eye on the market and its signals, manipulated or otherwise.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The silence of the lambs............just before the slaughter.



Hannibal Lecter: [shouts] No!
[normal voice]
Hannibal Lecter: I will listen now. After your father's murder, you were orphaned. You were ten years old. You went to live with cousins on a sheep and horse ranch in Montana. And...?
Clarice Starling: [tears begin forming in her eyes] And one morning, I just ran away.
Hannibal Lecter: No "just", Clarice. What set you off? You started at what time?
Clarice Starling: Early, still dark.
Hannibal Lecter: Then something woke you, didn't it? Was it a dream? What was it?
Clarice Starling: I heard a strange noise.
Hannibal Lecter: What was it?
Clarice Starling: It was... screaming. Some kind of screaming, like a child's voice.
Hannibal Lecter: What did you do?
Clarice Starling: I went downstairs, outside. I crept up into the barn. I was so scared to look inside, but I had to.
Hannibal Lecter: And what did you see, Clarice? What did you see?
Clarice Starling: Lambs. The lambs were screaming.
Hannibal Lecter: They were slaughtering the spring lambs?
Clarice Starling: And they were screaming.
Hannibal Lecter: And you ran away?
Clarice Starling: No. First I tried to free them. I... I opened the gate to their pen, but they wouldn't run. They just stood there, confused. They wouldn't run.
Hannibal Lecter: But you could and you did, didn't you?
Clarice Starling: Yes. I took one lamb, and I ran away as fast as I could.
Hannibal Lecter: Where were you going, Clarice?
Clarice Starling: I don't know. I didn't have any food, any water and it was very cold, very cold. I thought, I thought if I could save just one, but... he was so heavy. So heavy. I didn't get more than a few miles when the sheriff's car picked me up. The rancher was so angry he sent me to live at the Lutheran orphanage in Bozeman. I never saw the ranch again.
Hannibal Lecter: What became of your lamb, Clarice?
Clarice Starling: They killed him.

Meesohaawnee's picture

just put the lotion in the basket....

slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey fuu!

do you think this might help?

party on, mormons!  party on, neoCons! don't wake up theTeaBaggerz!

they're gonna try to kick the kenyen's ass in the propagandaWars0'2012!

morally, too!

how great is this for a fight?  we're all going on disability for bullshit-related stress diz-orders triggered by and lack of funds for proper self-medication

support the kenyan!  file NOW!

:> here's how:  tell yer boss, mrD.WarbuxZjrEsq:  i'm getting slewieRoidalTM [legislated into the DSM in 2010] and must go on sick leave, i'm afraid, sirFraudalot.  hire temps to help you cook the sales and inventory data, ok?   the accountants and lawyers want it that way anyhow, riiight?

see ya! <:

then, just go to the county and take a number...  the nannies are rilly hot, too!  especially the guys!

special thru laborDay: teachers get a 3.14% "fuk 'back-to-school'"  bonus from the new prez0 program allowing shchoolchildren to borrow up to $50k/year for home-schooling including mandatory internet sex-ed {clothing and condoms optional for spiritual reasons}

together, we can do this! 

now PAY ME!!!

fuu's picture

$40 for my pre-order of "Slewienomics" is in the mail if this subject is covered.

Christoph830's picture

Teetering on the edge of the plank

asteroids's picture

One wonders what Labor Day trading will be like. Remember folks, computer programs do strange things at boundary conditions.

fonzannoon's picture

We need a nice post labor day micro managed 4% decline. This way I can have "Buying opportunity" screamed in my face for 3 more months.

Renewable Life's picture

ya so boring its not even worth talking about..............

But on a unrelated note, has anyone noticed how quiet Mitty has got the Mormans this election cycle, hes got them towing the line, like a little puppy on a leash!!!  The last 8 or so election cycles they have been out there screaming bloody murder about abortion, gay marriage, you name it, getting shit on ballots in record numbers......this year, their quiet as a church mouse:)  

Its like no one wants to breath and fuck up the fantasy of Mitty bring into the oval office the bust of Joseph Smith holding the secret golden plates!!!! psssssssss. also don't mention the secret underwear, or the secret ceremony to get the passwords to the new planet you go to when you die, etc etc!!!!

I wonder if Paul Ryan and Mitty have talked religion yet, that would be awesome to hear!!!!!

Renewable Life's picture

This is what it says on the front page of the one of the churches websites, Its awesome!!!!!!

"In the spring of 1820, a 14-year-old boy named Joseph Smith went into a grove of trees near his home in Palmyra, New York, and prayed to learn which church he should join. In answer to his prayer, God the Father and His Son, Jesus Christ, appeared to him, just as heavenly beings had appeared to prophets like Moses and Paul in biblical times. (Visited in the flesh by BOTH Jesus and GOD almighty himself) Joseph learned that the Church originally organized by Jesus Christ was no longer on the earth. (I'm sure the Catholics would like to hear about this!!!)

Joseph Smith was chosen by God to restore the Church of Jesus Christ to the earth. During the next 10 years, Joseph was visited by other heavenly messengers, (NOT just Jesus and GOD, but others too) translated the Book of Mormon by the power of God, and received divine authority to organize the Church. The Church was organized in Fayette, New York, on 6 April 1830, under the leadership of Joseph Smith. It has grown to an organization with members and congregations throughout the world."

Not a peep from the MSM about this stuff, I love it..........oh well i guess it cant be any crazier then any of the others who have held that office!!!

NotApplicable's picture

As I'll tell everyone who tries to talk politics with me, "How can you trust anyone who would want that position? They are either stupid enough to believe the rhetoric (Stalin's "useful idiots"), or are a sociopath themself, having a completely criminal nature."

Neither of which is a benefit to anyone having to live under the regime.

Renewable Life's picture

Are we talking the Presidency of the United States or about a "Founder of a Religion"????????

NotApplicable's picture

Quiet Mormons should be a surprise to no one. Team sports just don't work any other way.


FRBNYrCROOKS's picture

I want to know how many wives he REALLY has!!!!!! Will there be a harem in the WH? Does he have like a number 1 wife, number2, ect. How does he split bedtime with all his bitches? I guess Mitt will sleep in a different room every night? That's gonna be tough on the WH staff. At least Air Force One will be big enough for Mitt, his wives and 30 kids.

roadsnbridges's picture

Yep, it was a strange day.  Regardless, I would like to thank those that fell in love with S around 2:25pm and TNA into the close.

web bot's picture

Enjoy the calm...........

You'll be seeing charts and graphs in the months of September and October that have rarely been seen...

fonzannoon's picture

someone explain to me why the market would be allowed to drop during the election. never gonna happen

web bot's picture

You are aware of what is going on in Europe... and the impending Israeli attack on Iran? Right?

fonzannoon's picture

yes for years now. do u have a new development to report?

FRBNYrCROOKS's picture

BB has stepped it up! He is raising the level of hysteria by handing out gas mask!!!! 

Christoph830's picture

Because TPTB want the incumbent out

NotApplicable's picture


Put down the pitcher and step back away from the Kool-Aid!

TPTB care very little which "side" wins, as they own them both.

You're just getting all caught up in the factional in-fighting, which is designed to attract the interest of the sheeple who are so sure that this is the MOSTEST, IMPORTANTIST ELECTION, EVAR!!!111!!11!!


LULZBank's picture

Its all about how you spin the news, bud.

Even bad news can be good.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey fonz-oon!

it's the stability, stupid!

and it's not abt the election imo, it is simply about keeping the checks in the mail i see fedFisher now jawboning abt "bailing out the wH" below tyler's great daily Z_WAP-wrap here but that is just fedSpeak:  QE will be used to keep the checks in the mail, unless somebody halts the "ceiling remodels" and uncleSugarless crashes for re-hab

he don't wanna go, BiCheZ!

tyler:  if you wanna mention how things are screwed down so000,000 tight, for so000.000 lo000,000ng, you certainly have my permission...  L0L!!!

fonzannoon's picture

agreed. crashes are not allowed from here on out.