Charting The Chinese Stock Market's Reaction To RRR And PBoC Interest Rate Changes

Tyler Durden's picture

Lately the biggest action in stocks is coming not out of the US, where the 4 month old melt up is on its last fumes, but out of China, where the marginal liquidity has now dried up, leading to such explosions of concern as 7 day SHIBOR going asymptotic (a topic discussed earlier). Some readers have expressed a concern as to just how credible RRR and interest rate hike actions are as relating to the performance of the Chinese stock market. Well, a look at the recent action in the SHCOMP for one should serve as a good basis for a starting opinion. A far better one, and stretching back a decade, was recently conducted by Nomura, which presents the following must see chart which shows how toothless the PBoC is when it has to deal with already latent massive liquidity excess. Specifically, during the 2006-2007 bull market, the PBOC had to hike interest rates 7 times in a row, and increase the RRR over 10 times before the market topped out in late 2007. Which begs the question: just how impotent is the PBoC in sequestering excess liquidity (remember: Bernanke can do it in 15 minutes), and are its tangential actions of boosting liquidity far more relevant when it comes to the MSCI China Index? Last but not least, the PBoC can merely control domestic liquidity directly: it is well known that foreign inflows into China refuse to abate. It is precisely this that the Chinese central bank should be (and probably is) dead set on intercepting if it wants to prevent food price riots (recall our prediction for a rice bubble).

From Nomura:

Continued ‘unexplained’ foreign capital inflows following US quantitative easing have expanded the PBoC’s money base, leading to more liquidity. Renminbi appreciation expectations should further fuel such inflows, we believe. Our economics team forecasts four more interest rate increases and three RRR hikes during the course of 2011. We think there will also likely be more administrative measures, including loan quota controls. Whereas the RRR hikes earlier this year came as a surprise, we believe the market is now prepared for more RRR hikes in 2011. Any price weakness stemming from an initially negative reaction to these would likely present a buying opportunity, in our view.

In the aftermath of this report, the PBoC hiked its interest rate once (Christmas Day 2010) and had 2 separate RRR hikes. It will likely have many more. We believe this means that the SHCOMP likely has far more downside from here... and sooner or later this liquidity collapse will migrate to the chief source of all liquidity bubbles: the good old US of A.

 

 

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DoctoRx's picture

TLT rallies in this scenario prior to yields going vertical.  Cu and oil down and prob Ag I'm unhappy to think.  Au may be safe haven . . . given its correction already

Quinvarius's picture

Did you notice they lowered margin requirements on copper at the same time as they raised them for gold and silver?  JPM's giant copper position will be protected.

topcallingtroll's picture

My cynicism is sadly reaffirmed once again.

AUD's picture

Doesn't look like a positive correlation to me.

 

 

Michael's picture

I Uploaded another copy of a video I made this morning.

I scrubbed my new video of key words to make it harder for the thought police to slow the downloading of it.

SNL Style Comedy Sketch

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAsXUdIEP_I

Yen Cross's picture

  Oh I'm loving this chart.

Yen Cross's picture

  Can we break it down to a h4 or Daily?

ThreeTrees's picture

To the PBoC:  The J-curve is a bitch.

The Axe's picture

this rate as flow up several times towards 7% then back down to 2.5% its average over the last year..why I do not know....crazy  for sure... but market turning.not yet..

topcallingtroll's picture

Too late. China die now. And what is really the icing on the cake is they were a net exporter of silver at less than 16 and now they are buying like mad. The fatal asian weakness is they think they are smarter than everyone else. This makes them an easy mark. they locked in long term oil contracts at the top and nearly bankrupted their airlines. All this commodity buying by china is a sure sign of another top because the biggest dumbfuck is the one who thinks.he is smarter than everyone else.

omi's picture

As we can see, it's irrelevant. 

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