David Rosenberg: "What Is Wrong With This Market?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff

My Evolving Macro And Market Thots

What is wrong with this market? The S&P 500, instead of grinding higher in the aftermath of QE3 actually hit its peak for the year the day after the policy announcement. Go figure. Maybe economic reality finally caught up with Mr. Market (there is a very fine line between "'resiliency" and "denial" — and keep in mind that the S&P 500 is still up 14% in a year in which profits are now contracting, not just slowing down).

And the cyclicals and Financials have lagged the defensive sectors.

I looked at all the prior major non-conventional easing measures in the past four years: QE1, QE2, Operation Twist, and the ECB-led Long-term Refinancing Operation which a year ago was a really big deal in unleashing a massive global risk-on trade.

On average, six weeks hence, the S&P 500 was up more than 9% after the policy announcement. It was all so novel! Tech on average was up over 11%, industrials were up 12%... ditto for Consumer Discretionary and Materials. The cyclicals flew off the shelves.
 
But this time around. either Mr. Market is jaded or the laws of diminishing returns are setting in.

Six weeks after the unveiling of QE3, the market is down 2%. This hasn't happened before. Every economic-sensitive sector is in the red, and even Financials — the one sector that should benefit from all the "sucking at the Fed teat" — have made no money for anybody! Of course, there are the compressed net interest margins to consider.

The bottom line is that since that famous September 13th FOMC meeting that had the bulls going hog wild, the only equity sectors that are in the plus column are ...

  • Utilities: +1.5%
  • Health Care: +2.4%
  • And while Consumer Staples are down fractionally, they have outperformed the broad market by 120 basis points

In other words, as aggressive as the Fed has become, maybe, just maybe, Mr Market is starting to focus on the patient rather than the prescription.

The problem is that at the highs, the market had become overbought and right after that September 13th QE3 announcement, the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) data showed the hedge funds had already jumped in and the buying power became quickly exhausted. Sentiment surveys and the low levels of the VIX index flashed a certain level of complacency. On each of these post-QE rallies, momentum had become increasingly diminished, and it has been no different this time around. And the bond market has consistently refused to buy into the economic reacceleration viewpoint dominated by the equity bulls. A cursory look at the charts suggests that a near-term top has been turned in and the popular view of a rally into year-end is beginning to look a bit discredited here.

S&P 500 revenues are set to decline on a YoY basis for the first time in over three years. Here we are, one-fifth into earnings season, and less than 40% have managed to beat their sales estimates - we have not seen a number this low since the first quarter of 2009 when U.S. GDP contracted at an epic 5.3% annual rate (and 20 percentage points below the historical average)! I guess this does matter for the stock market, after all, despite all the money printing out of the Fed which merely debases wealth instead of creating it. With margins coming off cycle highs and all the fat already being cut out of the corporate cost structure, faltering sales can be expected to exert an outsized influence over profits in coming quarters. Be prepared for more downward revisions in the EPS outlook, which means be diversified, defensive and dividend-driven.

Of note for pro-cyclical enthusiasts, the Asian stock market, a pro-growth bellwether, has now turned in three losing sessions in a row - a 0.4% drop today with two declines for every advancer. The economic-sensitive Korean Kospi index led the decline with a 0.8% setback and China was down 0.9% in its worst day in four weeks. Equity markets are down through most of the planet today (Japan an exception) with economic and political concerns re-ignited in Europe, a spotty earnings cycle and, of course, what the polls may show with President Obama "winning on points" according to the experts with regards to last nights debate. Though it was interesting to see the incumbent sound more like a challenger... "Attacking me is not an agenda" I thought was one of the better lines of the night; I realize that people need sound-bites and the President, in classic Chicago-style-politics sarcastic for sure delivered some zingers, but Romney was most effective, I thought, and stayed on message, as non-sound-bitey as it may have been, that, sorry, Bin Laden may indeed be dead but Al Qaeda is not and is staging a comeback...  see the op-ed on this file by Jack Keane, former Vice Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army, on page A17 of the WSJ.

To be sure, Obama is a brilliant debater and ostensibly king of the one-liner, but Romney did come off as a credible leader and keep in mind that no matter the "spin", the president had a 10-point lead in the polls as recently as July and all signs still suggest a neck-and-neck race. As an aside, it's not just tax policy, energy policy and foreign policy that are at stake in the coming election, but Fed policy will likely be affected as well — for more on this file, see On Fed's Horizon; Nov. 6 Looks Large on page B1 of the NYT.

The euro is softening now on the news that Moody's cut the credit ratings of five Spanish regions and French business confidence tumbled to its lowest level in over three years in October (lnsee index down to 85 from 90, the lowest reading since August 2009). As if to add insult to injury, Spanish GDP contracted 0.4% in Q3, matching the Q2 decline (though better than what was generally expected) and the fifth straight shrinkage.

On a day when there was little in the way of data-flow, what was key yesterday was what Caterpillar had to say about the global economic outlook and the picture painted was no Picasso — announcing that the global headwinds are even more acute than previously thought, citing that end-user demand "is not growing as fast as we were expecting it would" (full-year sales seen now at $66 billion from $67.64 billion and 2013 revenues now seen -5% instead of +5%). Texas Instruments reported that its quarterly revenue dropped 2.3% as demand for its chips receded and the CFO (Kevin March) stated "across the board, we're seeing customers being extremely cautious, very careful about the level of inventory that they hold so giving us very low levels of visibility as to what they'll want to order for the quarter". Now does that sound like escape-velocity to you? Freeport-McMoRan missed its EPS target for the first time in 17 quarters ... an inflection point, perhaps? Dupont missed too this morning (cutting jobs as well) and what was that Philips Electronics said yesterday? That "the economy in the U.S. is at the moment moving a little bit sideways". Yikes... that means stagnation. No growth. Microsoft doesn't get the attention it once had with the likes of Apple and Google now the darlings of the tech world, but the bellwether is now down 10% in the past month (stock price, that is) and as such is in official correction terrain. And didn't we near from Canadian National Railway (CNR) yesterday say that it is expecting a "challenging end to the year' even though it delivered a Q3 results that fractionally beat estimates?

But at least Yahoo surprised to the high side — a rarity so far in the fairly bleak earnings reporting season (something like 8% of the S&P 500 companies report today). May as well find those needles in the haystack.

Also have a glimpse at the article on page B1 of today's NYT titled Dwindling Demand: China's Slowing Economy Puts Pressure on American Exporters. Fiscal cliff notwithstanding, the really big risk is a negative export shock about to hit the U.S. economy...  did anyone notice that Q3 industrial production actually contracted, albeit fractionally, for the first time since the depths of the Great Recession over three years ago? And if you have become a bull over Europe, notwithstanding all the ECB support in the world, the problem of massive excessive indebtedness has not gone away instead, it has gotten worse. See Despite Push for Austerity, European Debt Has Soared on page 138 of the NYT.

If deflation was not a primary theme, then we likely would not have seen gold break below its 50-day moving average this morning, with the overall commodity complex moving in the same direction (the oil price has declined now for four days running). Copper and gold (the red and yellow metals) have now traded down to six-week lows! Ditto for platinum. Now that is deflationary — and confirmed by the behaviour in the bond market U.S. Treasuries (and German Bunds) are back in rally-mode, even in the face of this week's $99 billion new- issue calendar in the government bond market and it is nice to see how the 200-day moving average on the 10-year 1-note proved to be solid support for the fifth time this year!

Again, all these market moves are diametrically opposed to what we had experienced after the prior QE moves ... call it life at the zero-bound. The only difference is that this time around, the market realizes that the Fed is pushing on a string. Perhaps in a classic sign of "unintended consequences", the Fed's actions are now doing more to hurt the Financials than help them — see Low Rates Pummel Banks on the front page of today's WSJ. Financial industry profit levels are sagging to their lowest level in three years on the back of increasingly squeezed Fed-induced net interest margins. Indeed, margins are down now for five quarters in a row and at 31.2% to their tightest levels since the second quarter of 2009 (when they needed a government bailout).

Yes, yes, housing and autos have both enjoyed good years, but don't confuse a cyclical upturn with a level shift — and I sense we are in the latter in each sector. Single-family starts now exceed sales by more than 60% and only 30% of the sales are by first-time buyers. That does not tell me housing is in some durable uptrend, and the reality is that after over-cutting, the builders have now caught up with demand. And after two years in which uber frugality took the stock of U.S. motor vehicles down for two years in a row, there was indeed some good pent-up demand (the fact that the median age of the existing stock is over 11 years is immaterial because cars are being built to last longer today) but the buying intentions surveys suggest that the peak has been turned in. The question is that if I am correct in the assertion that the mini housing and auto cycle has run its course, and all this could produce was economic growth of 1.5% for this year, then what picks up the mantle and prompts anything better than that meagre GDP trend (which is one-third what is typical for an economy supposedly heading into year-four of an expansion). Indeed, you know that the housing rebound is on a short leash when people aren't shopping for furniture or home appliances any longer—just have a look at Appliances Hit Slow Cycle on page 35 of today's WSJ.

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Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:13 | 2914763 ACP
ACP's picture

Fuck the market. Silver BITCHEZ!

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:18 | 2914767 Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

Wrong. Fuck you Bernanke.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:26 | 2914779 true brain
true brain's picture

you can only fuck a human being, or something living. try fucking the monetary undead???  your winnie will fall off.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:33 | 2914786 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

In fact, there is such a thing as plutonecrophilia.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:43 | 2914806 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Man... that's metal.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 23:42 | 2914895 CPL
CPL's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5EcaX12h46k

 

There's something about that in the Third Party Presidential Debates.  Johnston does a good job.  Can smell hungry on him.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 00:04 | 2914929 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

Silver makes me think funny things.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 00:13 | 2914942 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

Need more power! More QE!! QE hyperspeed!!! Bernanke will teach that Great Depression what a real recession is!!!!

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 01:05 | 2915000 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

What the goddamned motherfucking fuck do you people want?...

It's a goddamned MARKET... Manipulated by motherfucking jews (because some SHITHEAD named 'Woodrow Wilson' got co-ercerd into thinking that way because another JEW from Princeton had the 'GOODS' on him & it meant something in those days)...

I could give an everlasting FUCK on how many JEWS 'junk' me for this post, (or, how many PC 'wannabees' do the same because they think their IDIOT opinion makes any difference anymore)...

... THAT'S HOW IT'S WORKS

~~~

ENTERTAIN YOURSELVES with the rest bitchez... (while the JEWS [junkers especially] continue to 'con' you all thinking that francis_sawyer is an 'anti-semite')... Fucking 'JERK' heaven... Y'all have arrived...

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 03:52 | 2915133 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

investors are taking profits off of stocks and buying houses to rent out in time for 2013 tax increase.

 

also government = economy these days and fiscal cliff = end of corporate subsidies = lower profits = stock goes south

 

 

dumbass american middle class bought into free markets and lower capital gains as "tax cut" while fees and income taxes and healthcare/education costs are skyrocketing....

 

 

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 07:00 | 2915216 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

Ok Hitler.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 06:48 | 2915223 Fred C Dobbs
Fred C Dobbs's picture

History is anti semetic.  

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 02:08 | 2915039 Tommy Gunner
Tommy Gunner's picture

Fuck bernankey in the ass with a three wolls of quarters taped togethere?  Very hard very fast.  Then drop the bitch off on the next block and spit and shit on him

 

Bernanke - boot licker joe boy of Dimon and Blankfein....  little Ben Bernank - just doing what his masters tell him to do - make them more money even if it means fucking everyone else

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:28 | 2914780 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

I think we can all find a compromise here: Fuck Bernanke-levitated markets.

 

And Dave, give it a rest. Fundamentals, ratios, even technicals have been made illegal.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 00:59 | 2914998 Daily Bail
Daily Bail's picture

Yesterday on Squawk Box.  Among the many highlights, Andrew Ross Sorlin gets smacked down like the punk that he is.

Marc Faber On CNBC: "Cut The U.S. Government By 50%, And Watch The Economy Take Off"

 

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:32 | 2914785 sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

Yes, just what IS wrong with this fraudulent, manipulated, imaginary, proprietary algo-driven, muppet sucking, profit taking abortion of a market?

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:40 | 2914791 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

why nothing. markets are perfect-- for the crooks, sociopaths and the 1% that is.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 23:44 | 2914897 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Academics refer to this as semi-strong form efficient market hypothesis, which states I will earn a market return while the 1% earn endless riches...I'm paraphrasing, of course.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 04:44 | 2915149 TeddyBear
TeddyBear's picture

I got a VIX buy on the S&P 500 today. low will be in, about 1 to 5 days. bought MSFT, T, junk bond funds, a bunch like REM. Also a RSI buy on Japanese yen. I shorted China 2 days ago, I may take profits soon:)

Gold needs to go down more to trigger a RSI buy. 

  Can Obummer drive gas down to $ 2.99  b4 election?

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 06:55 | 2915230 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Still 3.71 here in the DC area. Keep reading about how it's going to go down and I aint seen shit for price drops in the past week.

Sat, 11/10/2012 - 02:38 | 2967315 TeddyBear
TeddyBear's picture

 

 

 

$3.14 in TEXAS today

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:36 | 2914789 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Silver AND Gold. Make friends with both!

A new couple of little ditties on Gold and VIX for you, in most simple retardo-proof terms sans charts:

http://vastdom.blogspot.com

 

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 06:16 | 2915202 Buck O Five
Buck O Five's picture

As big a fan of Au and Ag I am, at present I aint gonna BTFD till AFTER the 27th has passed us by... fuck you crimex and fuck you bernanke

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 23:40 | 2914888 Stock Tips Inve...
Stock Tips Investment's picture

That's bad news. When injecting so much money does not support the market. Nor generates economic recovery. It has had very little effect on employment and housing prices. If the market continues to fall, Bernanke is in trouble.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 00:40 | 2914975 yogibear
yogibear's picture

May Bernanke rot in Hell.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 04:55 | 2915160 Howdan
Howdan's picture

Amen to that yogibear!

Bernank is a financial terrorist who deserves to be jailed for his sickening incompetence, arrogance and malfeasance.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 06:56 | 2915229 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

I don't believe in hell, I hope he may soon rot on earth.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 07:12 | 2915241 Fred C Dobbs
Fred C Dobbs's picture

Isn't Bernanke just following his employer's orders?  He is an employee of a privately held bank.  

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 09:13 | 2915473 petolo
petolo's picture

Burn in Hell and rot in heaven .....................and marinated in purgatory.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 23:58 | 2914917 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Just about EVERYTHING is wrong with this market.

 

http://schiffblog.blogspot.ca/

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 02:09 | 2915040 Deo vindice
Deo vindice's picture

Remember the nursery rhyme:

This little piggy went to market...

That's what's wrong with the market.  Too many piggies slurping at the trough.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 00:19 | 2914953 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

2$ spike in silver just before close? Quick up quick down....Gettin Close.

Silver Fookerz!

 

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 02:12 | 2915041 Deo vindice
Deo vindice's picture

Fat finger? Fat chance.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:17 | 2914766 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Someone should go find whatever rock Biderman is under and tell him it's okay to come out now.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:39 | 2914801 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Biderman is convulsing and drooling himself in bed with REDRUM and KOOBKCUF scrawled all over his walls.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 00:27 | 2914957 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Who?

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:24 | 2914774 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

Something wicked this way comes....

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:51 | 2914777 alstry
alstry's picture

Why do Economists fail to acknowledge that impact of technology on Industrial Economic Systems?

IBM Watson has already replaced most traders....and could even replace Economists as it can process global data in real time without the need for conjecture.

For 5000 years, humanity has built various systems to herd and milk other humans and their production....going forward, we will have to advance our thinking as technology increasingly replaces the need for most current industrial jobs and control over people.

It's time to milk technology and not people in the http://www.udderworld.com

The best part, bankers are not really needed in a technologically driven world....as computers and robots don't need money to produce, just a little electricity and some love.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 06:25 | 2915207 Lebensphilosoph
Lebensphilosoph's picture

Pie in the sky. The only thign coming after the industrial age is the nuclear sludge age.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:27 | 2914781 Democratic koolaid
Democratic koolaid's picture

Gold was on fire for a couple of weeks after Q3!

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:28 | 2914782 ZFiNX
ZFiNX's picture

Market wants some footing but Bernank won't let it come down enough to get its feet on the ground. Time to start swimming higher, market participants, you'll get no rebound off the bottom of the pool.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:29 | 2914783 Mactheknife
Mactheknife's picture

The market is still very complacent even after today...looking at today's tick and trin numbers I still see no fear...which means the selling hasn't really started yet.  Of course Mr. Market's job is to take as much money from as many people as he can...hammer time is coming.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:29 | 2914784 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

What's wrong with this market? For starters, Jon Corzine is still alive and not in jail.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:34 | 2914788 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Banzai will show us who is trying to suck the man teat of Ben Remus-Romulus.   

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 05:06 | 2915165 Acet
Acet's picture

How did the mythical founders of Rome who were raised by a she-wolf got involved in this!?

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:35 | 2914790 sangell
sangell's picture

When the Governor of the BOE said this yesterday:

I am not sure advanced economies in general will find it easy to get out of their current predicament without acknowledging further likely losses, a significant writing down of asset values, and recapitalisation of their financial systems.

I'd say the jig is up.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 04:45 | 2915151 reload
reload's picture

Translation: "we need to give banks more free money and backstop their prior reckless lending."

Looks like currency holders and taxpayers will get the bill - not the banks.

business as usual then.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 05:10 | 2915170 Acet
Acet's picture

Yupes: the central bank of the nation controlled by a City which is known as the Money Laundry Capital of the World specializes in giving our money to well-connected financial institutions in that same City.

I'm just happy that even though I live in the UK, the vast majority of my savings are not in Pounds. Too bad for the unfortunate boating accidents I keep having in Scotish lochs ...

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 07:14 | 2915246 Shevva
Shevva's picture

Yer but let's see king take your money off Nessy.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:36 | 2914797 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

The problem is, its all rigged, when the insider traders want it to go up, it goes up, when they want it to go down, it goes down.

When they want a company to go broke, they pass some obscure law hidden in a bill that no one will read before passing that makes it impossible for their competitor to do business.

When things don't go their way they shift the losses to taxpayers/shareholders/investors/depositors/third world countries/small shell companies meant to absorb losses and debt and go under.

And when push comes to shove, no one is held accountable because the congress, judicial system and every-other branch of government is either payed off or being blackmailed. 

 

Thats whats wrong with your pathetic excuse for a market, and until everyone accepts that fact, and actively tries to fix it, nothing is going to change, so unless you want things to change and try to make them change, STFU and eat the inflation like the rest of the pathetic population of sheeplets.

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