The American ability to delay the lag with the rest of the world persists for one more month, as December's ISM printed just better than expectations, coming in at 53.9, on expectations of 53.5, and compared to 52.7 in November. This was the best manufacturing data since June. As it turns out in December virtually every single component of US manufacturing improved, even as Customer Inventories somehow declined contrary to what retailer data has been indicating, and even as Europe went further into its recessionary shell following the 5th consecutive month of PMI contraction, and China saw a dramatic drop in the trade balance. But why bother to debate the numbers: here they are: New Orders rose from 56.7 to 57.6, Employment rose from 56.5 to 59.9, and so on. From the PMI: "The PMI registered 53.9 percent, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from November's reading of 52.7 percent, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 29th consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased 0.9 percentage point from November to 57.6 percent, reflecting the third consecutive month of growth after three months of contraction. Prices of raw materials continued to decrease for the third consecutive month, with the Prices Index registering 47.5 percent, which is 2.5 percentage points higher than the November reading of 45 percent. Manufacturing is finishing out the year on a positive note, with new orders, production and employment all growing in December at faster rates than in November, and with an optimistic view toward the beginning of 2012 as reflected by the panel in this month's survey." Oh well - the banks will need to get even more apocalyptic with their forecasts if they want the Fed to start printing as +250 DJIA up days will not help the cause.
Full data table:
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Somehow we fail the reconcile the tabulated optimism with what the respondents are saying, but as we said, oh well:
- "Slow Q4 — lots of destocking and inventory reduction going on." (Chemical Products)
- "Business seems strong, but likely due to tax advantages of purchasing capital expense items." (Machinery)
- "Our business is stable with a very good outlook for 2012." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
- "Food prices seem to have peaked as demand is starting to wane." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
- "All auto demand remains strong." (Fabricated Metal Products)
- "Continued conservative hiring, with tight discretionary spending controls due to slower growth expectations for 2012, driven by Euro zone sovereign debt concerns and lack of viable U.S. legislative process through the 2012 election." (Computer & Electronic Products)
- "Business beginning to slow down (seasonal), but will finish with a very strong year." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
- "Business is steady today around the world." (Transportation Equipment)
- "Market has definitely slowed in the last month, and is expected to remain so this month." (Wood Products)