As retail investors continue to appear significantly pessimistic in their fund outflows ($7.1bn from US equity mutual funds in w/e January 4th - the largest since the meltdown in early August) or simply stuff their mattresses [8], David Santschi of TrimTabs asks the question [9], 'who is pumping up stock prices?' His answer is noteworthy as a large number of indicators suggest institutional investors are more optimistic than at any time since the 'waterfall' decline in the summer of 2011. Citing short interest declines, options-based gauges, hedge fund and global asset allocator sentiment surveys, and the huge variation between intraday 'cash' and overnight 'futures market' gains (the latter responsible for far more of the gains), the bespectacled Bay-Area believer strongly suggests the institutional bias is based on huge expectations that the Fed will announce another round of money printing (to stave off the panic possibilities in an election year). The ability to maintain the rampfest that risk assets in general have been on (and the cash-for-trash short squeeze that has been so evident [10]) must be questioned given his concluding remarks.
While we fully expect QE to come, we can't help but question the willingness to meet market expectations so head on (remember when the Fed used to like to surprise) but with ever blunter (and seemingly weaker) tools, what more can they do - leaving a market (and note here we did not say economy as that is clearly not benefiting) that needs exponentially more 'juice' (EUR10tn LTRO?) just to keep from the post-medicinal crash.