Just as certain as death and taxes, fading Goldman's FX "Strategist" has once again made everyone rich. Back on January 6 [6]when the 0.000-batting FX guru said "With considerable downside risk in the short term, within our regular 3-month forecasting horizon, the key questions are about the speed and magnitude of the initial sell-off. If we had to publish forecasts on a 1- and 2-month horizon, we could see EUR/$ reach 1.20. In other words, we expect the EUR/$ sell-off to continue for now as risk premia have to rise initially." To which our response, naturally was: "In yet other words, if there is a clearer signal to go tactically long the EURUSD we do not know what it may be. We would set the initial target at 1.30 on the pair." Needless to say, following Stolper's recommendation, the EUR barely dipped further, and as of this morning has soared above 1.3000, helped not least of all by the record EUR IMM shorts we have been highlighting for weeks. With this, we now close our latest fade-Stolper trade at a profit of 317 pips. This is the 8th out of 8 closed and profitable "anti-Stolper" trades posted on Zero Hedge.
[7]
And speaking of fading Goldman, it has honestly become a joke how much abuse the firm's remaining clients are forced to take. Below, straight from the octopus' mouth, is the performance of the firm's top 6 trades for 2012, less than a month into the year:
The recommendations were opened on 30 November 2011 unless stated.
1. Close protection on the iTraxx Europe Xover Index, opened at 759bp, for a potential loss of 3.4%.
2. Close short 10-yr German Bunds, opened at 2.28%, for a potential loss of 3.5%.
3. Stay long EUR/CHF, opened at 1.226, with a target of 1.35 and a stop below 1.20, now at 1.21.
4. Stay long Canadian Equities (S&P TSX) vs. Japanese Equities (Nikkei), FX unhedged, opened at 100, with a target of 120 and a stop below 90, now at 98.8.
5. Stay long a Global Rebalancing Basket (CNY, MYR vs. GBP, USD), opened at 100, with a target of 107 and a stop below 98, now at 102.1.
6. Stay long July 2012 ICE Brent Crude Oil Futures, opened at 107.8, with a target of 120 and a lowered stop below 95, now at 109.2.
Summary: 5 out of 6 trades losing, with 2 already stopped out. The once feared and respected firm has become a laughable shadow of its former self.