Just a week over the last time S&P said Greece would likely default any second [6], it reminds us once again why we should care.
- GREECE IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WOULD QUALIFY AS A DEFAULT: CHAMBERS
- S&P'S CHAMBERS SAYS IT'S NOT GIVEN THAT GREECE DEFAULT WOULD HAVE DOMINO EFFECT IN THE EURO ZONE
Perhaps just as irrelevant if notable is that S&P basically said just that back on May 9, 2011 [7]. As for Greece, it is a given that if the country proceeds with CACs it will default. Period. And yet that is just what will happen. However a far bigger question, as we touched on yesterday [8], is what happens next, when Portugal decides to follow the same framework of "deleveraging" only to find that courtesy of having strong creditor protection bonds it can't? Or when the Troika figures out that due to strong negative pledges, the country's balance sheet can not be primed and thus subordinated, and thus is ineligible for secured financing. And what happens when Europe realizes that Portugal is ineligible for saving in the conventional sense? Or Spain? and so forth.
Finally, here is Dalarra's long awaited commentary on the progress of the Greek exchange offer, via Bloomberg.
- IIF'S DALLARA SAYS INDICATED 50% HAIRCUT ON NOMINAL CLAIMS
- IIF'S DALLARA CALLS ON ALL PARTIES TO HONOUR THAT AGREEMENT
- IIF'S DALLARA PRIVATE CREDITORS HOLD 60% OF GREEK GOVT DEBT
- IIF'S DALLARA SAYS REMAINING GREEK DEBT IS IN OFFICIAL HANDS
- IIF'S DALLARA SAYS IMPORTANT ISSUES OF BURDEN SHARING ARISING
- IIF DALLARA SAYS GREEK EFFORTS SOMETIMES NOT FULLY APPRECIATED
In Europe beggars no longer can be choosers:
- DALLARA SAYS A LOT RIDING ON RESOLVING GREECE COOPERATIVELY
Translation: the future of Europe is in the hands of a few good hedge funds. As predicted on Zero Hedge last June [9].