8:30: GDP (Q4-Advance): Above trend. Higher than consensus, Goldman forecasts that real GDP growth accelerated in the fourth quarter to an annualized rate of 3.3%. The firm expects that growth in domestic final sales—personal consumption expenditures (PCE), business fixed investment, housing and government spending—contributed about 2.0 percentage points (pp) to the quarter’s growth rate. The remainder of growth during the quarter should come from a rebound in inventory accumulation and a decline in the trade deficit.
GDP: GS: +3.3%; Consensus: +3.0%; Last (Q3-Final) +1.8%.
GDP price index: GS: +1.0%; Consensus: +1.9%; Last: +2.6%.
PCE core index: GS: +0.9%; Consensus: +0.9%; Last: +2.1%.
9:55: Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment (January final): Flat. Consensus forecasts expect a flat reading for the final January consumer sentiment index. This seems appropriate given the signals from the daily and weekly measures of confidence released through the month.
Consensus: 74.0; Last: 74.0 (January prelim).
10.00: New York Fed President William Dudley on the regional economy. Q&A expected.
Source: GS