Following the Chicago PMI miss, will today's important ISM, which is forecast to grow substantially, be the next disappointment as the "economy" aligns even further with the chairman's vision of more easing, which however has to be justified by the "data"? Find out at 10am. Elsewhere, the ADP will continue to be its utterly worthless indicator self.
8:15: ADP employment report (January): A cleaner number. The seasonal distortions which boosted the ADP report in December should be absent from the January report (these were related to year-end purging of electronic payroll records). Prior to December, the ADP and BLS measures were tracking each other closely on a three- or six-month average basis. Therefore, our below-consensus forecast for nonfarm payroll employment growth (+125k) likely implies a below-consensus reading on the ADP survey as well.
Consensus: +182k; Last +325k.
8:30: Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser on the economy. Q&A expected.
10:00: Construction outlays (December): Large increase. Goldman forecasts that construction spending increased by 1.4% (month-over-month) in December. The report could have implications for revisions to Q4 GDP growth (which was originally reported at +2.8% annualized).
GS: +1.4%; Consensus: +0.5%; Last +1.2%.
10:00: ISM manufacturing index (January): Forecast revision. Yesterday the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) published revised seasonal factors for its business conditions indexes. For the manufacturing ISM, the revisions show less recent momentum in activity. Therefore GS has revised down its forecast for today’s report to 53.5 from 54.0 previously. After the revisions to seasonal factors, in the future the inclination will be to attribute any surprises to "real" news rather than seasonal distortions.
GS: 53.5; Consensus: 54.5; Last: 53.1.
Afternoon: Lightweight vehicle sales (January). Flat. Manufacturer comments during the month were consistent with total vehicle sales about unchanged at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 13.5m units (saar), in our view.
Total: GS: 13.5m; Consensus: 13.5m; last: 13.5m.
Domestic: GS: 10.4m; Consensus: 10.5m; Last 10.5m.