From Mike Krieger of KAM Lp
It's The Leadership Stupid
It’s the first time we have power with people that don’t have courage. The people on top have power without courage. You cannot find any other society like it. Take the knights. The knights were people who of course, their trade was risking their lives. In theory, The President of the United States was supposed to be first in battle. Not someone pushing a button. The only way you can have a safe society is by moving these types of people (that risk nothing personally and take all the upside) out of their positions. Making them more accountable.
- Nassim Taleb (in this fantastic interview [19])
From our perspective, this is a critical idea. As we have said for several years, we do not see Iran as close to having a nuclear weapon. They may be close to being able to test a crude nuclear device under controlled circumstances (and we don't know this either), but the development of a deliverable nuclear weapon poses major challenges for Iran.
Moreover, while the Iranians may aspire to a deterrent via a viable nuclear weapons capability, we do not believe the Iranians see nuclear weapons as militarily useful. A few such weapons could devastate Israel, but Iran would be annihilated in retaliation. While the Iranians talk aggressively, historically they have acted cautiously. For Iran, nuclear weapons are far more valuable as a notional threat and bargaining chip than as something to be deployed. Indeed, the ideal situation is not quite having a weapon, and therefore not forcing anyone to act against them, but seeming close enough to be taken seriously. They certainly have achieved that.
- Stratfor “Considering a U.S.-Iranian Deal,” January 24th, 2012
I’ve Always Loved History
I’ve always loved history. Even all the way back to grade school I remember it being my favorite subject. Very early on I noticed certain patterns in history and I wondered why they occurred. When I was first exposed to European history, I recall being absolutely floored by how certain countries could become so rich and powerful and then subsequently collapse so stunningly and rapidly. The one that really boggled my mind was Spain - the homeland of my maternal grandfather who I never met. Here was a country that conquered and viciously looted essentially all South America other than Brazil (thanks to the pope being magnanimous enough to grant that part of the world to Portugal in the Treaty of Tordesillas), Mexico, Central America and parts of the United States. The gold and especially silver that was taken back to Spain was the stuff of legend, yet almost at the same time they had defeated the native peoples overseas their kingdom at home was crumbling. Not to bore anyone with too much history, but by the mid 1500s the Spanish had essentially conquered the Aztecs (Mexico) and the Incas (Peru). At the time, the Aztec capital, Tenochtitlan was estimated to be larger than any city in Europe. Despite these tremendous “successes” and the riches that came with them, the battle of Rocroi in Northern France in 1643 less than one hundred years later marked the end of Spanish dominance in Europe. What is so fascinating to me is that while the conquistadors were out raping and pillaging halfway around the world the domestic economy was experiencing economic crisis. There were episodes of major currency debasements in the homeland as the crown was forced to fight wars on their borders as well as fund the excursions abroad. It is important to note that the collapse came pretty quickly as it was only in 1627 when things were still looking pretty good for the empire that The Count-Duke Olivares famously stated: “God is Spanish and fights for our nation these days.” Does this story sound familiar?
It’s the Leadership Stupid
The reason I put the Taleb quote at the top is because it is such a phenomenal interview and I request that every one reading this takes the time to listen to it this weekend even though it is very long. In the part just prior to the quote I used he talks about how society is now separated into three categories. The category that he has the most disdain for are those with “no skin in the game.” These are the self-proclaimed “elite” of the Western world today. This group is varied but generally consists of politicians, Wall Street executives, the CEOs of large state-connected and protected multi-national corporations and mainstream media “journalists” or as Gerald Celente likes to call them “presstitutes.” As Taleb notes, these “elites” have no honor or courage. They are groveling little manipulator parasites. They have created a world in which they are able to reap all of the upside and have no downside. When things go against them they just bail themselves out on the back of the rest of society.
Then of course there is the group with “skin in the game.” This group consists of the unconnected wealthy, the middle classes and the poor. This is why class warfare is such an absurd thing. OWS is not about class warfare. It is about the battle between those with skin in the game versus the “elite” that rig the game and call it capitalism so they can later demonize it and consolidate power further. It is about the 99.9% of humanity against the technocrat and crony capitalist alliance. It is free humanity against a fascist system that is not capitalism or free market in any way shape or form. Yes, I think OWS needs to make this message more clear, but it’s not about money. It is about excessive power. Yes money in large amounts does equal power but it is the system itself that is the cancer. If we didn’t have a money system where money is counterfeit and can be created at will with a computer keystroke by the Ben Bernank payoffs and system rigging would be considerably more difficult for these clowns (although of course it would still happen).
Taleb then describes the final group. Those that “don’t have upside.” These people are there to “take the downside of others.” The best example of this class is the military of course. They risk it all for themselves and their family for essentially no reward except the satisfaction that they are doing good. Here is where I think things get interesting. What happens when the military realizes they aren’t fighting for the good of their nation? What happens when they realize the wars they are risking their lives for are merely to help those with “all the upside and no downside,” ie the elite to consolidate power for themselves? What happens when the military realizes their sacrifice is undermining the very Constitution they swore to uphold? I will tell you what happens. They support Ron Paul; which is exactly what has happened.
The Iran “Card” and the Idiocy of Western Leadership
If I was the leader of Russia or China right now I would be salivating and on the floor laughing. I would be in utter disbelief of how corrupt and immoral and insane and incredibly stupid the technocratic/Wall Street leadership of the Western world is. I mean they don’t even have to do anything. All they have to do is sit back and watch us blow our societies up with our actions. It’s truly remarkable.
Let’s start with Iran. Please go back to the top and reread the quote from the Stratfor piece. Stratfor, for those who aren’t aware is one of the most respected geopolitical/intelligence research organizations of the planet. So this isn’t just me spouting. Isn’t it interesting how this organization makes it clear in no uncertain terms that Iran is nowhere near a nuclear weapon, yet all the presstitutes on television don’t ever even ask this question. It is always posed as “well we know they are close so should we attack or not.” This is how propaganda operates. It doesn’t even allow you to start with an honest question, rather it starts off with a lie. If you start off on a question of war with a assumption that is a patent lie how do you think things are going to turn out? This is the exact same spectacle that we saw in the run up to the war in Iraq and their “weapons of mass destruction” that of course never existed.
All of this just supports my view that Iran is about two things. First, Iran is not safely a glorified member of the “elite” Western puppet states in the Middle East. This is a huge problem considering their considerable oil production and the threat that they could choose to not sell that oil in dollars. Secondly, TPTB understand that the “natives” back home are getting restless and they know that historically speaking nothing works better in a crisis than a big war to get the population to be submissive and do as told. The interesting thing here is that the U.S. citizenry does not want another war and neither does the rank and file military. TPTB know this. As a result, I think all of us need to be on the lookout for an attempted false flag attack that will be blamed on Iran. This could be a “cyber-attack” (that would be convenient since they could then use it to also censor the web), or otherwise, but in the end this is something to be very cognizant of. If you are following what is going on you realize that Iran has absolutely ZERO incentive to launch any attack on the U.S. This would guarantee a response and regime change. They are not that stupid.
The other interesting thing about the Iran situation is how completely incompetent and idiotic Western leadership actually is. I am the farthest person from someone that wants to keep the status quo in place, but if I was one of these Western “elites” I can tell you one thing; I wouldn’t be making any of the foolish moves they are making. The biggest blunder I have seen as of late is the U.S. and Europeans launching a new round of sanctions against Iran, specifically targeting their banking system. The great irony in all of this is that this action is merely accelerating a move away from the dollar as the currency of choice for many in the region. The only thing I have seen since these new sanction have been put in place are many more currency swaps between China and other countries. Most notably recently with Japan and the UAE. Even South Korea the other day mentioned buying Chinese debt and further diversifying reserves. Then of course there are deals to sell Iranian oil to India using both rupees and gold. In a world of tight resources and centrally planned economies whose leaders need to keep their sheep fed, warm and on the highways, Iran’s oil will be sold. It’s actually comedic to see Europe taking the “offense” by saying they won’t accept Iranian oil. Europe of all places? Give me a break. Yeah, threaten one of the biggest oil exporters in the world as you plunge into a sea of poverty, social chaos and bankruptcy. Do everything in your power to throw them into the open arms of Russia and China. You wonder how an empire can decline so fast? It’s the Leadership Stupid. History will remember the current crop of leaders in the Western world as the biggest collective or corrupt fools ever assembled on planet earth.
Ron Paul in Denver
This Tuesday I had the pleasure to attend Ron Paul’s rally in Denver. I had never been to a political rally before in my life and it was an awesome experience. Contrary to Joe Scarborough whose anonymous source claims such rallies are filled with anti-Semites I went with another Jew and all I saw were intelligent, open minded, informed citizens coming together for the only principled candidate for the Presidency. It took place in a large hotel ballroom and was standing room only. About half an hour before it was to start I went across the hall to the shop to buy a bottle of water and the woman working behind the counter marveled to me about the amount of people attending saying she had “never seen anything like it.” She also said she was closing her doors at noon to go herself. Whether or not Ron Paul wins the office is actually besides the point. He has already won. As Victor Hugo said “no army can defeat an idea whose time has come.” Well the time is now and the idea is liberty.
The Dave Janda Radio Show
This past Sunday I had the pleasure to be on Dave Janda’s “Operation Freedom” radio show, which is broadcast on WAAM Talk 1600 Radio out of Ann Arbor Michigan. Dave is a phenomenal guy and vigilant fighter for liberty. He takes time out of his busy schedule as an Orthopedic Surgeon to do this show every Sunday. Previous guests have included, Bill Murphy, Jim Rickards, Jim Rogers, Gerald Celente, John Perkins, James Turk and many others. Here is the link to my segment. I hope you enjoy. http://www.davejanda.com/audio/MichaelKreiger012912.mp3 [20]
Peace and wisdom,
Mike