Yesterday when we discussed [6]the surprising non-cut in the Australia cash rate, we asked "is China re-exporting the lagging US inflation it imported over 2011? " and said that "It means that Chinese inflation continues to be far higher than what is represented... and wonder: did the RBA just catch the PBOC lying about its subdued inflation?" Lastly, we concluded: "Furthermore, the PBOC did 26 billion yuan in repos, meaning it is set to conduct a net liquidity withdrawal for this week according to Credit Agricole. Withdrawing liquidity when the market expects RRR cuts?" Sure enough, as usually happens when assuming sentiment manipulation by a centrally planned powerhouse such as the US, and in far lesser degree these days, China, we were right. The news just out of China is that January inflation soared far beyond expectations, with CPI printing at 4.5% Y/Y, compared to estimates of a decline to 4% from December's 4.1%. This was the highest inflation since October. We will simply repeat our conclusion from yesterday, which while speculation then is now confirmed: "Chinese easing is a long way off... and in a market defined solely by hopes for central bank intervention this is not good." Practically, this means that the PBOC just told the world that no easing will come from China in a long time, and that the Fed and the ECB are alone in reliquifying the market. It also means that one can kiss the Chinese growth dynamo story goodbye, and once the US finally recouples with the rest of the world, the only hope will be a new announcement of QE in March so it hits its maximum efficiency in time for Obama's reelection campaign.
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