Just in time for the latest headfake out of Europe where sentiment at least on thus Sunday afternoon is that Greece is somehow saved (on a rehash of an old story, namely that the ECB welcomes the combination of the EFSF and the ESM [10]- something that Germany has previously expressly refused to comply with, and something which is utterly meaningless - where will the money come from - Italy and Spain? Or will China invest more than the single digit billions in EFSF bonds raised to date?), we look at the CFTC Commitment of Traders for an update on speculative sentiment. There we see that just as the general public was starting to comprehend that Germany may let Greece fail after all, a fact confirmed by Tom Stolper's most recent flip flopping [11]on the EURUSD, which caused the Goldman catalyst to end his call for a rise in the EUR currency (and for ZH to take the opposite side as usual, a trade which is now 160 pips in the money- recall [11] "Needless to say, we are now closing our short reco at a profit 9 out of 9 times in a row, and doing the opposite - i.e., going long."), speculators ended the two consecutive weeks in reducing net short exposure, and the week ended February 14 saw net short interest rise again from -140.6k to -148.6k. So if one is wondering what the weak hands are doing that just got burned shorting the pair in the past 10 days, the 100 pip move higher (which has sent the ES over 1370 and the DJIA futures over 13K) this afternoon explains it. For those wishing to bet on a contrarian outcome, which in Europe is pretty much a given, our advice is to wait for Tom Stolper to issue his latest EUR bullish forecast, which will likely be forthcoming any minute, and which will cement the FX strategist's place in the FX anti recommendation hall of fame.
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