From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
A Whole Lot Of Nothing, So Far
Credit indices are virtually unchanged in Europe and here.
Stocks futures are virutally unchanged in Europe and here.
I still see no evidence that the ECB has redeemed its old bonds and received new bonds (the amount outstanding on old bonds should show up as being reduced once the exchange is done - it is is probably just that the trade hasn't settled, though with CAC documentation proceed in Greece, it would be curious to see what happens if the ECB's exchange isn't done when the CAC is implemented).
Use of the CAC and a CDS Credit Event appear to be the most likely outcome, though I have not seen an official termsheet for the PSI. It seems like there will be 20 bonds with staggered maturity (according to the latest on the IIF website, which contradicts some other press releases that indicated it would be one amortizing bond).
The correlation between Euro and stocks continues to decrease, with a strong move in Euro today do nothing for stocks.
Does Apple do something with its cash hoard today? Does that do anything for the markets? Hard to look at the Apple price chart and become convinced that there is a lot more room to run.
Maybe we will get a surprise in jobless claims, but somehow I doubt that it will be a positive one.
So anyways, so far a whole lot of nothing, for a change.