For a while there it seemed that together with the LTRO and the Bernanke testimony, tomorrow's event trifecta would be joined by ISDA, which it had previously been rumored would make a decision on whether a credit event (read CDS trigger) had occurred in the context of Greece, and specifically following the ECB's stripping of its own bonds under some arcane exchange offer that only the ECB was privy to (this is not a determination whether a credit event has taken place related to the PSI - that will take place in late March). According to a just released PR, this won't happen, and instead ISDA will hold the meeting at 11 GMT on Thursday, March 1, the day after the LTRO, and announce everything was voluntary and by the books, just to avoid overloading the algos with bullish news at the same time (recall that the LTRO announcement will take place at 11:15 CET). In this way, the upside love will be spread over two days, which should hopefully result in another 30 ES point, as the headline scanning aglos no longer care what the headlines actually say, as long as there are headlines. Remember: when dealing with a bipolar Atari 2600 - quantity trumps quality any time, especially when coming off the biggest short-term central bank liquidity infusion in markets in history.
From ISDA [8]:
ISDA Determinations Committee Accepts Question Related to a Potential Hellenic Republic Credit Event
LONDON, February 28, 2012 – The International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. (ISDA), as secretary to the Determinations Committees (the DCs), today announced that a question relating to a potential credit event with respect to the Hellenic Republic has been submitted to, and subsequently accepted for consideration by, the EMEA Determinations Committee.
In accordance with the Determinations Committee Rules, a meeting will be held at 11AM GMT on Thursday, March 1 to determine whether a credit event has occurred.
Further information regarding the question is available at www.isda.org/credit [9].