The traditionally C-grade, and very noisy ADP number, has printed at a 216K private payrolls added, on expectations of 215K, or precisely in line, even as the January print was revised modestly higher from 170K to 173K. Of course, since the track record of the ADP as a NFP predictor is absolutely atrocious, and when one adds that the ADP had its annual revision take place today, this number is all about seasonal adjustments as was the BLS January print. What was amusing is that not only were finance jobs added (+14k), but so were manufacturing (+14K) and construction (+16K) jobs.
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All about the annual revision [7]:
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From the Press Release [9]:
"This month’s employment gains in The ADP National Employment Report continue to be solid, with job growth averaging just over 200,000 for the past five months," said Carlos Rodriguez, President and CEO of ADP. ?Also, for February, virtually every sector of the economy added jobs – something I hope will continue for the rest of 2012."
According to Joel Prakken, Chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, "The last three monthly gains in employment shown in the ADP National Employment Report have averaged 223,000, compared to 156,000 per month over all of 2011. This pick-up is consistent with the recent acceleration of the nation’s gross domestic product which, in the fourth quarter, grew at the fastest pace (3.0 percent) since second quarter of 2010.
February’s increase marks the twenty-fifth consecutive monthly gain in private employment as measured in the ADP Report and suggests that the national unemployment rate may have declined slightly last month," Prakken said.
Prakken continued: "Conditions continue to improve at a moderate pace and are consistent with other indicators suggesting some firming of the labor market.
"Employment grew in all the major sectors of the economy tracked in The Report, and across payrolls of all sizes. Employment on medium payrolls—those with 50 to 499 workers—rose 88,000 in February. Employment on large payrolls—those with 500 or more workers—increased 20,000 during that same period,? Prakken noted.
From the report:
Employment in the private, service-providing sector rose 170,000 in February, and employment in the private, goods-producing sector increased 46,000 in February. Manufacturing employment increased 21,000.
Employment on large payrolls—those with 500 or more workers—increased 20,000, and employment on medium payrolls—those with 50 to 499 workers—rose 88,000 in February.
Employment on small payrolls—those with up to 49 workers—rose 108,000 that same period. Of the 108,000 jobs created by small businesses, 18,000 jobs were created by the goodsproducing sector and 90,000 jobs were created by the service-producing sector.
Employment in the construction industry grew by 16,000 in February, marking the fifth consecutive monthly gain in this sector.
Employment in the financial services sector increased 14,000 in January, marking the seventh consecutive and largest monthly gain over the last two years.