Update: as expected, the SKAI number which ramped the market was sheer idiocy, and was based on the assumption of a CAC trigger [6], which obviously means that all bonds should accept following the trigger of the coercive clause.
The time to submit one's response to the Greek PSI has now ended. The next milestone is 8 am local (1am Eastern), when the full results will be announced. But why wait: according to Greek SKAI, participation is now over 90%. [7]That Greece has been known to adjust numbers even more than the BLS is well known, but who cares: the market has taken this rumor and is running with it. Whether this also means that there will be no need to even bother with CDS remains to be seen, as participation, i.e., responding to the exchange offer, does not mean agreeing with the terms of the exchange offer, but market always shoots first and asks questions later. Finally, since UK law bonds are 13% (not to mention Swiss and Japanese-law) of the total it is amusing that once again nobody can do simple math.
Incidentally, SKAI appears to be pulling numbers out of its ass. From the Guardian live blog [8]:
Helena Smith, our Greece correspondent, has the answers, and also reveals that Greek government sources are now describing the deal as the world's biggest financial experiment ever:
Greek officials say they expect to be kept up most of the night counting participation rates in the public bond swap offer. By 8am local time tomorrow (6am GMT) the finance ministry will be in a position to announce "preliminary results" as agreed with the Euro Group of finance ministers and Institute of International Finance [IIF] representing private holders of Greek government debt.
"The percentage [of participation] will be announced but we are not going to give any details about categories of the bond holders involved," one official said confirming that the atmosphere is "very positive", adding:
"Whoever gives percentage rates now is naive. There are only four or five people on the planet who know the exact percentage and those who claim to know are just guessing."
And just out from Dow Jones: Government official tells us debt swap participation rate hovering around 80%.
Yup. Participation rate = RAND()