This is a comprehensive look at the SPDR Gold Trust (symbol: GLD) technicals.
Before getting to the technical picture, one word about the fundamentals for gold. They remain solid. Spiking yields on the 10 year Treasury are a headwind, but other measures, such as the cost of money being less than the rate of inflation, are gold positive. In some respects, the fundamental and technical picture are in sync in that we have been and will likely continue in a period of consolidation. The good news for those inclined to be bullish on gold is that prices are approaching the lower part of that trading range.
Figure 1 is a monthly chart of GLD. The pink labeled bars are negative divergence bars, and in this case, the negative divergence is between price, which was heading higher, and an oscillator type indicator used to measure price, which was heading lower. What we know about negative divergence bars is that signify slowing upside price momentum, and the highs and lows of the negative divergence serve as areas of resistance and support respectively. Once a negative divergence bar is printed, future prices will be contained within the highs and lows of that negative divergence bar until a breakout (or break down) occurs. This is what I have tried to show with the gray shaded areas as each area of consolidation following a negative divergence bar led to a thrust higher in prices.
Figure 1. GLD/ monthly
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The most recent negative divergence bar has a low of 154.19; if prices close below this level on a monthly closing basis, I would be very cautious on GLD.
Figure 2 is a weekly chart of the GLD. The red dots are key pivot levels, and these are the best areas of support and resistance. 157.18 is the first area of support, and 153.12 is the second. A weekly close below 153.12 would not be welcomed as this is a break of support.
Figure 2. GLD/ weekly
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Figure 3 is a daily chart of the GLD. Once again, the key pivot points show the best areas of support. 163.34 is resistance. A daily close above this level would be gold positive. For the conservative trader (i.e., those looking for confirmation of a price move), I would look for a close above this resistance level before going long GLD.
Figure 3. GLD/ daily
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