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I want everybody to reminisce and decide if we've heard this concerto play before - Bloomberg reports Europe Sees Debt Crisis Nearing End [14]:
The euro area’s woes are “almost over” after a slow initial response by policy makers, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti [15] said in Tokyo today. German Chancellor Angela Merkel [16] said yesterday that the crisis is ebbing and her country’s borrowing costs will probably rise as its status as a haven wanes.
Hey, I heard that song before! Exactly two years and 15 days ago - Greek Crisis Is Over, Region Safe”, Prodi Says – I say Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire! [17] Darest anyone read this linked article and contrast its contents to recent history? Don't worry, we haven't even gotten to the punch line yet...
Bernanke, who cited “green shoots” of recovery in the U.S. in March 2009 only to see his nation’s jobless rate climb to 10 percent seven months later, said in remarks published yesterday “it’s far too early to declare victory.” The jobless rate remains too high and policy makers don’t rule out further options to boost growth, he said in a transcript of an interview with ABC News anchor Diane Sawyer provided by the network.
Remember these green shoot specials?
- It's Official: The US Housing Downturn Has Resumed in Earnest [18] Mar 1, 2010 – The year 2009 was the year of reflation theories and bubble blowing. Theses of "Green Shoots", catching the bottom, and QE reigning supreme ...
- Green Shoots are Being Fertilized by Brown Turds [19]
- Currency Crisis! Inflation! Sovereign Defaults [20]
At least Bernanke has learned his lesson this time around...
Bernanke’s comments contrasted with a series of declarations by Monti during a visit to Japan [21], with the Italian leader saying a solution to Greece’s challenges is almost accomplished, Spain is employing discipline and Italian actions have helped stop deterioration in Europe [22]’s woes.
Monti predicted a continued rally in Italian bonds. The country sold 3.82 billion euros ($5 billion) of zero-coupon and inflation-linked securities yesterday as borrowing costs fell to a four-month low.
Now, let's use some of the analytical firepower and common sense from the last few BoomBustBlog posts on the Eurocalypse topic...
- First of all, nothing was solved with the Grecian game earlier this month. The can was kicked down the road for a maximum of 4 years, but the economy was sentenced to an effective depression as the debt load was increased substantially while the banks shifted future losses to the public sector. Is this the progress that is being referred to? See Beware The Overly Optimistic Greek Speculators As Icarus Comes Crashing Down To Earth! [23]
- Abu Dhabi & UAE Can Leverage PetroDollars To Profit From Coming Eurocalypse Style Conflagration [24]: CRE looks to get flattened as mortage liquidity tightens in a stressed market, see Watch As Near Free Money To Banks Fails To Prevent Nuclear Winter For European CRE [25] for more. Austerity driven asset sales produce fire sale prices that do naught to stem revenue leaks...
- Portuguese Liquidity Trap: When You Add Too Much Liquidity To F.I.R.E. It Burns! [26] From a fundamental and macro perspective, Portugal is at risk of following right behind Greece. So, What's Next Step Towards The Eurocalypse? [27]
- Actual growth - you know that thing that you need to produce more money to actually pay bills - is slowing even further despite a raft of parlor tricks and semantically driven stunts: Debt Swaps, Back Dated Deals Featuring Only One Party - No Matter What, Greece's Problem Is Shared By Much Of The EU & Can't Be Solved Through Parlor Tricks [28]
The most cogent quote from the afore-linked Bloomberg article:
“Anyone who pretends to know if we are out of the woods yet is clearly kidding themselves or misleading their audience,” said Glenn Levine, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in Sydney.
Follow me...
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