Just a few thoughts and facts before the employment report for March is out. No time like just before the report to issue some thoughts so that the next day you can be shown to be horribly wrong, but here it goes.
I see on ZH a lot of antipathy for government data especially on jobs. Interestingly this week a number NON GOVERNMENT reports have been very up-beat
The ADP, a well-known private sector report based on a blown up sample from actual data from a payroll-services company continues to pour out evidence of over 200K jobs per month being created.
Private sector source…
The Challenger Gray and Christmas issue a report that looks at firms’ announced corporate layoffs from notices (medium-sized and larger) firms are required to post each month. The report for March shows us the 16th lowest announced corporate layoffs in March among the last 19 Marches. Since data are NOT seasonally adjusted (some of you will like this report even more because of that) this is an objective way to assess its strength/weakness. This lay off indicator is low.
Private sector source…
A Bloomberg Survey on consumer comfort has just shot up this week to show a one week increase in ‘consumer comfort’ with a jump so large that it occurs less than 6% of the time. In this weekly series going back to 1986 the 17-week change in the Bloomberg index has been surpassed only three other times (all of these were the product of the same 1998 episode). This is a twice in a 25-yeear experience.
Private sector source…
So put it together and SOMETHING is happening.
For those who belong to that shadowy group ‘weather-o-nomics’, yes weather has had an impact on data but it has had pluses and minuses- try talking to someone who runs a ski resort or a winter lodge business. I think the weather thing is overplayed for its impact.
On balance the big problem we do not seem to ever to be able to agree on is unemployment and this fine. We can all have our own favorite measure. Just be sure to plot it back in time and to compare today’s figures with the same definition and its higher numbers at all points in the past.
Everything is relative here.
I am encouraged that the ADP shows that private small services businesses have brought their employment levels back up to where they were Pre-Recession. Some small businesses are making great strides; some are not..
Of course the goods sector is challenged. Despite some good-looking recent MFG reports recently, the fact is that although the calendar year of 2011 was the first year in a decade in which MFG gained jobs the sector is lagging woefully behind in creating jobs in this recovery cycle.
The job market is a hodge-podge and it is not in good shape but it is improving. The improvement is quite good compared to what had been in train, previously. There is a long way to go. But let’s recognize progress without being satisfied by it.
And we’ll see if the ‘official report’ reflects that progress tomorrow. I expect it will. Also note that two government surveys one of firms’ payrolls and the other from the more inclusive household survey are showing job growth that is in step with the private sector ADP report.
Stay tuned for a 240K sort of gain in Private jobs for March.
Remember do not ever forecast a job number unless you are prepared to be wrong. There is nothing that breeds humility like making a forecast.
Well posting comments on ZH…and reading the blow-back is right up there.
Good luck any of you market junkies that bet on this number.