March NFP [3]big miss at just 120K. Unemployment rate declines from 8.3% to 8.2%. Futures slide, for at least a few minutes before the NEW QE TM rumor starts spreading. The household survey actually posted a decline in March from 142,065 to 142,034. Considering Birth Death added 90K [4]to the NSA number, the actual number was almost unchanged. And as always, as we predicted when Goldman [5]hiked its NFP forecast yesterday from 175K to 200K saying "if Goldman's recent predictive track record is any indication, tomorrow's NFP will be a disaster", Goldie once again skewers everyone. Finally, Joe LaVorgna's +250,000 forecast was just 100% off... as usual.
The unemployment rate drops to 8.2% for one simple reason: the number of people not in the labor force [6]is back to all time highs: 87,897,000.
[7]
Birth Death:
[8]