With expectations of a $12.0bn rise in Consumer Credit, yet another market 'economic' indicator flashes orange as the Seasonally Adjusted number comes in at $8.735bn - the largest miss from expectations in 6 months. Furthermore, using the Non-Seasonally Adjusted data, this is the largest sequential drop in 12 months (since the Feb 2011 plunge). While non-revolving debt managed to increase (though at a considerably lower pace) for the second month in a row the deleveraging that ended in Q4 [4] has resumed following the end of the retail shopping season (as revolving credit contracted). Perhaps the same 'glitch' that destroyed Groupon, namely accounting for product returns, is about to sweep the entire retail industry?
The largest sequential drop in Consumer credit NSA since Feb 11...
[5]
And revolving credit has now contracted for 2 months in a row - as the consumer deleveraging ramps up again following the holiday shopping season...
[6]
with this deceleration the largest miss in 6 months...
[7]
Source: Federal Reserve [8]