As we enter another earnings season, volume has been light, but the S&P is up ~8% YTD. So, are we in the middle of a centrally planned bull market or not?
As the sides lay out their arguments, and the Fed trots out talking heads to constantly contradict each other & baffle the market with bullshit, there are two charts that are worth taking a look at.
The first is a chart showing analyst EPS estimate revisions, along with the S&P 500 20 day moving average. This is what the central planners are trying to keep going. As you can see, the S&P has been ticking up since its 2011 low, and for the first time since mid-2011, analysts have revised their EPS estimates upward into positive territory. Is this the bullish indicator CNBC has long been waiting for? (ok, outside of everything pisani can spin as bullish for equities).
The second chart, as ZH elaborated on earlier today [2], is the piece of the puzzle that Bernanke can't quite figure out. The central planners are desperately trying to get the retail investor to believe that the water is warm, jump on in -- if they can somehow keep the market inflated for just a little bit longer perhaps the ponzi can continue. This chart shows that investors still are not buying what the Bernank is selling, and retail funds continue to exit equities, and much to Goldman's chagrin, head into bonds.
So, which is it? Are we in the midst of an epic bull run, or an epic run of bull shit. Place your bets.
Charts: Bloomberg / Sara Eisen & Zero Hedge