Back in early February, long before anyone was too worried that French socialist candidate Hollande may win the French presidential election (after all the market was soaring on the fumes of a still ramping LTRO 1+2 effect, so why worry), UBS George Magnus penned a must read analysis of the macro implications what a Sarkozy loss would mean for Europe in "As Falls Sarkozy, So Falls Europe: The Full Story Behind The Upcoming French Election [6]" which with 4 days to go until the first round of the French presidential election, is certainly worth a refresh (especially for Frau Merkel who will be roundly humiliated after backing the losing horse). And yes, it is only 4 days as UBS is kind enough to remind us. UBS also reminds us that, as strategist Stephane Deo believes Hollande has a 75% chance of winning, the french equity market is at substantial risk, as a Hollande victory is not priced in, even as noted earlier, it is starting to seep into the credit market where French CDS jumped over 200 bps for the first time in 4 months. To wit: "The bond market may force the government’s hand if they don’t start walking the walk on debt reduction. Plus, while we don’t think that France is as troubled as Spain, it’s not priced for election disruption." But that is the big picture. Below we present a summary matrix which breaks down the various Hollande proposals that may propel him to become the next French president as well as their implications on various micro items.
First, the timeline:
[7]
And full Hollande victory matrix:
[8]
Yet to think: if it wasn't for a certain hotel maid, DSK would be days away from being French president...