According to the latest OPEC data [8], Saudi Arabia, which in its own view, is some endless pool of easily retrievable crude, yet which Phibro's Andy Hall [9], as well as leaked confidential docs [10], claim is nothing but one big lie, pumped a record 9.834 million barrels per day, an increase of just 24K barrels from February's total (based on secondary market data, not direct communication). While we salute Saudi's peak production, which has never crossed over the 10 MMBPD level, we wonder, just how and where will Saudi get the 25% extra spare crude capacity needed to fully replace Iran's embargoed oil, which however continues to flow. Or it does at least according to Iran - oil production rose in February and March, if just redirected: India and certainly China (which is currently adding to its strategic reserves as pointed out here some time ago) are delighted to buy excess Iran production. Based on secondary market sources, Iran production has declined from 3.46MM BPD to 3.35MM BPD: hardly much of an "embargo" impact.
Below is Iran's production over the years compared to the price of Brent. Needless to say, Obama would certainly demand more from his bossom friends in the house of Saud, in an election year... if only they could deliver.
[11]
And this is where Saudi Arabia says it can pump to. At this point they may be the only ones who believe it.
[12]