This is not the way to start a new GDP quarter in which consumer expenditures are supposed to pick up following a weak Q1 GDP driven higher by inventory accumulation and record hot weather. From Bloomberg: "Just over half of the retailers reporting April comp. sales trailed ests., led by misses in department stores and discounters. 11 of 20 cos. reporting April sales fell short of ests.; 4 of 6 dept. stores, 3 of 4 discounters missed." As a reminder, missed expectations means it was worse than expected: something quite stunning in a world where every other data point has hedonic, seasonal or birth/death adjustments.
More details from Bloomberg:
- ROST had biggest upside surprise, 3.8ppts above est.; BONT had widest miss, 4.7ppts below ests.
- 9 cos. beat ests.; 4 of 6 apparel chains beat
- Beats: ARO (1Q), CATO, HOTT (1Q), JWN, LTD, RAD, ROST, SMRT, SSI, TJX, ZUMZ
- Misses: BKE, BONT, COST, FRED, GPS, KSS, M, SKS, TGT, WAG, WTSLA
Full breakdown of forecasts and expectations:
- ARO prelim. 1Q EPS 12c-13c, saw 8c-10c, est. 11c
- BONT prelim. 1Q rev. $640.8m, est. $655.5m
- CATO prelim. 1Q EPS $1.04-$1.09, matches forecast; est. $1.07
- FRED prelim. 1Q EPS 26c-28c, matches forecast; est. 27c
- GPS prelim. 1Q 44c-46c, est. 40c
- HOTT prelim. 1Q EPS 7c-8c vs March forecast 2c-5c, est. 5c; sees 2Q loss-shr 4c-6c, est. loss 5c
- KSS “comfortable” with 1Q EPS view 60c, est. 61c
- LTD 1Q prelim. EPS 38c-40c, saw 35c-40c in Feb., est. 41c; sees May comps. up in low-single digits
- ROST 1Q prelim. EPS 92c-93c, saw 89c-91c; est. 91c
- TJX prelim. 1Q EPS 54c, saw 51c-52c, est. 52c; boosted FY2013 EPS view to $2.26-$2.36, saw $2.25-$2.35 in April, est. $2.32
- WTSLA prelim. 1Q EPS 2c, at low end of 2c-4c prior range; est. 3c