Remember that very disappointing Q1 GDP print of 2.2%? Well, Goldman just dragged it even lower.
Wholesale inventories increased by 0.3% (month-over-month), less than the consensus had forecast. The result was also below the rate of wholesale inventory growth assumed by the Commerce Department in its advance estimate of Q1 GDP. As a result, the report implies a possible downward revision to Q1 GDP. Based on available data, we now expect that Q1 GDP will be revised down to +1.9% (annualized) from +2.2% originally report (the wholesale inventory report accounts for one tenth of the expected downward revision). Tomorrow’s trade report could also affect expected revisions to Q1 GDP. We made no changes to our tracking estimate of Q2 GDP (still +2.0%).
"Still" at 2.0%. We give that "still" about a week, before consensus Q1 GDP is slashed to 1.3%. The "New QE" brigade is out in full force and demands blood.