The latest economic data point comes out, which is the Chicago PMI, [6]not to be confused with the meaninglessly duplicate MarkIt ISM Manufacturing PMI which was released earlier this month, and sure enough it confirms once again we are on a full glideslope to more QE. At 52.7, it collapsed from the prior print of 56.8, and missing expectations of 56.2. This was the lowest print since September of 2009. And scene. NEW QE is now 100% assured.
Digging through the numbers:
- Production and New Orders lowest since September 2009
- Prices Paid lowest since September 2010, Employment rate of growth has slowed
Charting the near-recessionary print:
[7]
which is the largest 3 month drop since December 2008...
[8]
Again - freefall, and the ISM is next:
And as usual, the always informative respondents:
- There is a strong economic uncertainty at this time. There is considerable inflationary pressure.
- Our orders are staying pretty steady, but our backlog only takes us through the end of June.
- Business is slowing down right now. We had a decent first quarter but its gotten quiet.
- A decrease in order intake and backlog over the past three months has caused our first workforce reductions since the Carter years.
- China inflation is kicking in for our business starting in the second quarter. Canadian business is flat but US seems solid.
- Uncertainty, volatility and speculation rule the raw material pricing market. This is having significant impact on our ability to compete, reinvest, and grow our business.
- Aluminum products sales remain at record levels.
- Business opportunities seem to be picking up but their continues to be a lot of financial stress on smaller firms. These firms seem reluctant to take on more debt.
- New orders have slowed but outlook remains good because of quote volume and size of projects being quoted.
- Pricing instability being experienced in rubber and thermoforming - resins. All other areas fairly quiet.
- And the best one: "Slowing down."
QED