While stocks, gold, and the dollar are generally in sync, Treasuries appear modestly more bearish now (for stocks) but it is the high-yield bond ETFs that is making a few people nervous as they plunge on heavy volume (and well below their intrinsic value). Obviously no-one really knows what i going on at JPM, but fort some more color we note that IG9 10Y is trading wider once again offered at 169bps - so one wonders if the liquidity in HYG is allowing some unwinds (or more hedges to be laid out). Certainly stocks remain ignorant of it for now - though month-end may be impacting both.
SPY (green) versus HYG (red) with HYG's intrinsic value (dark red)...
and on both our ETF-based (SPY Arbitrage model - based on SPY's relationship to HYG-VXX-TLT) and cross-asset-class (CONTEXT [6] model), stocks look a little rich once again...
Chart: Bloomberg


