Shifting away from the theatrical travesty for a moment, we move to the other such travesty: Europe, where while nothing has been fixed, despite what the BIS is trying to do with the EURUSD which is now up 100 pips in a straight line since the Dimon testimony started, we find that while the world is concerned about Greek elections, the real gamechanger may be the old and known one: Greek cash, or the lack thereof, and more specifically yet another bailout for the country. RTE reports [8]that as of today Greece has about €2 billion in cash left, pro forma for the recent cliffhanger cash infusion from Europe which almost did not come, which is expected to last the country for just about one more month.
From RTE [8]:
"Greece has about €2 billion to pay salaries and pensions until July 20, media reports said today. The finance ministry declined to comment on the reports. Greece is heading into a Sunday election which could lead to it leaving the euro zone."
Of course, there is the natural probability that this is merely electoral propaganda: "Greece's European peers have warned Athens in stark terms that further loan payments could halt if promised reforms, including an unpopular privatisation drive, falter. Should this happen, many analysts warn that Greece could be forced to ditch the euro and print its own currency to pay pensions and salaries." Oddly, this is despite Spain proving to the world that one has much more leverage when demanding bailouts in the context of preserving Europe. And the irony is that this may not be enough. As Greekreporter informs us : "Greece might soon need a third financial aid program from its Eurozone peers, the German weekly Die Zeit reported Wednesday, citing unnamed financial and government sources. As Greece has fallen behind the goals of the consolidation and reform program agreed with the EU and the IMF, especially regarding tax revenue and privatisation proceeds, discussions are underway in the EU to give the country more time to reduce its deficit, the paper said." In other words 2012 is 2011 is 2010 is 2009 is 2008: the bailout wagon rolls along, while the "other people's money" is getting ever less and less and less.
More:
In order to extend the deficit-reduction timetable, Greece would need tens of billions more in aid, Die Zeit said. The German parliament might already have to deliberate on a new program this summer.
Eurozone officials have told MNI that if the new Greek government shows sincere commitment, “some adjustments could be made to the bailout program.”
The sharp deterioration in the country’s growth outlook leaves room to extend the period for the consolidation effort, one source noted. The working scenario has been for an extension of two years, which means Greece would have to bring its deficit down to 3% of GDP by 2016 instead of 2014, the official said.
“It is a well known secret in Brussels that the E130 billion second bailout program won’t be enough,” another source said
To paraphrase: this means a third Greek bailout will be needed even if New Democracy, which too has promised to renegotiate the memorandum.
This summer will be interesting.