The long-anticipated first Greek exit poll is out. The results, per Greek Mega TV, are as follows:
- New Democracy 27.5-30.5,
- SYRIZA 27-30,
- PASOK 10-12,
- Ind Gr 6-7.5,
- Golden Dawn 6-7.5,
- Dem Left 5.5-6.5,
- KKE 5-6
As a reminder, per Citi [2], "The outcome will be too close to call if the difference between the first two parties is less than 2%-3% with strong precedent of exit polls failing to predict the outcome when the race is tight."
Also from Citi:
- These results will NOT be an accurate representation of the final outcome. Numbers are fed through as they come in and this strongly biases the sample towards the rural regions in the early hours of counting.
- The Ministry of Interior will be releasing more reliable estimates of the final result on Greek TV - this will not be available on the website.
The next exit poll round will come at 8 pm local time, or 1 pm Eastern.
Official data can be followed at: ekloges.ypes.gr [3]
In a word: very much indefinite, as the leader will get the bonus of 50 parliamentary seats, which makes any conclusive calculus impossible for now.
And for a real-time tracker of results as they come in.
[4]