While every long-only manager and jobbing stockbroker is hard at work twisting the simple logic of 'but, but Central Banks will print and save the world' into a much more appetizing 'US decoupling, cleanest-shirt, ignore Europe, earnings, profits, money-on-the-sidelines' euphemism, we note that the following three charts from UBS suggest that things are not quite as rosy as one might believe - whether or not Ben speaks monetarily this week. Between consensus growth expectations rolling over, the analyst upgrade/downgrade ratio turning negative once again, and recent changes in US growth remain positively ecstatic relative to global/regional changes; it would appear hope is a powerful (and hallucinatory) drug (as is QE kool-aid).
The progression of consensus earnings growth estimates is rolling over for 2012 and stalling for 2013...
[4]
and the upgrade/downgrade ratio is turning back down (less upgrades than downgrades) and changing trend...
[5]
and the US remains an extremely optimistic unch over the past 3 months for its earnings growth forecast change relative to considerable drops among most of the world's economies...
[6]
So while the hopes and prayers that 'fundamentals are a figment of everyone's imagination and the only thing that matters is central banking largesse' remains, the next time you hear someone trying to spin some fundamental earnings growth basis for buying-and-holding now, slap them gently and tell them to stop deny-deny-deny abnegation and admit they are as addicted as the rest of the market to the elixir of nominal equity strength - the central bank printing button.
Source: UBS