Two data points out today: the first was Initial Claims which did precisely as expected: it improved even as it deteriorated: why - the media headline will blast: "Initial Claims Decline by 6K" because last week's number of 387K was just revised to 392K. Ironically, enough, this was just as at least we expected. From 8:27 am.
Last week's Initial Claims number of 387K will be revised to at least 390K in 3 minutes
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 28, 2012 [5]
That what actually happened was a miss of baseline expectations, in that claims would drop to 385K is irrelevant. Just as it is irrelevant that next week, today's 386K number will be revised to 390K. And the media manipulation song and dance revisions will continue. More importantly, and continuing the 99 week cliff issue, 60,000 people dropped off initial and extended claims in the past week [6]. In other words, 1.260 million people have fallen off extended benfits in the past year: people who no longer collect any form of unemployment benefits. Surely they have all "found jobs."
[7]
Finally Q1 GDP came at 1.9% just as expected, with Personal Consumption however coming in weaker than expected, at 2.5%, below consensus and the last revised number of 2.7%.
[8]
Sadly for all those who sell newsletters based on nothing but central planner intervention hope is that today's data set was not horrible enough to send stocks soaring.