Three weeks ago we noted [3] that Goldman Sach's Global Leading Indicator (GLI) and its Swirlogram had entered a rather worrying contraction phase. Today's update to the June GLI data suggests things got worse and not better as momentum is now also dropping as well as the absolute level.
[4]
This continued deterioration in momentum suggests further softening in the global cyclical picture. Of particular concern is the broad-based deterioration in the GLI’s constituent components in June.
[5]
Nine of ten components weakened last month, only the second time this has occurred since the depths of the recession in 2008Q4. The June Final GLI confirms the pronounced weakening in global activity in recent months. Goldman has found elsewhere (as we noted here [6]) that this stage of the cycle, when momentum is negative and decelerating, is typically accompanied by deteriorating data and market weakness.
[7]